AS Roma 1-0 Udinese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AS Roma at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this AS Roma vs Udinese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Udinese travel to Stadio Olimpico to take on AS Roma. The game is scheduled for Thursday 23 September 2021, 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
AS Roma — All Games: 3W 0D 1L from 4 Serie A outings this season, averaging 2.25 points per game. Last five: W W W L. They are averaging 2.75 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. AS Roma have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Serie A games this season, Udinese have recorded 2W 1D 1L from 4 outings — 1.75 PPG. Last five: D W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 4 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Udinese have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
AS Roma are in the better shape of the two on current Serie A data — 0.50 PPG ahead (2.25 vs 1.75). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Data
AS Roma trading profile (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; they lead at the break 75% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 75%.
Udinese trading profile (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Roma 75% versus Udinese 25%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (AS Roma 100% | Udinese 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Roma 1.34 xG and Udinese 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Roma attack 1.168 / defence 1.007 | Udinese attack 0.756 / defence 0.972. League average goals — home 1.178 / away 1.604. Data: 4 AS Roma games / 4 Udinese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AS Roma 39% | Draw 27% | Udinese 34%. Fair-value odds: AS Roma 2.56 | Draw 3.70 | Udinese 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates AS Roma as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AS Roma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.56 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.5 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: AS Roma 75% | Udinese 25%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Roma vs Udinese | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Thursday 23 Sep 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Roma 39% | Draw 27% | Udinese 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG AS Roma 1.34 / Udinese 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: AS Roma attack 1.168 / def 1.007 | Udinese attack 0.756 / def 0.972 | league avg home 1.178 / away 1.604 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
AS Roma xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Udinese xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AS Roma vs Udinese kick off?
AS Roma vs Udinese kicked off at 19:45 on Thursday 23 September 2021 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in AS Roma vs Udinese?
AS Roma 1 - 0 Udinese.
Where is AS Roma vs Udinese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is AS Roma vs Udinese part of?
AS Roma vs Udinese is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win AS Roma vs Udinese?
Our statistical model gives AS Roma a 39% chance of winning, Udinese a 34% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Roma vs Udinese?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both AS Roma and Udinese will score (BTTS).
Will AS Roma vs Udinese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Udinese?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are AS Roma and Udinese in?
AS Roma (all comps): 3W-0D-1L in 4 | 2.25 PPG | GF 2.75 / GA 1.25 | L5 W-W-W-L. Udinese (all comps): 2W-1D-1L in 4 | 1.75 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from AS Roma's attack rating (1.17) and Udinese's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Udinese's attack versus AS Roma's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
39%
2.53
27%
3.76
34%
2.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
AS Roma xG
Total xG
2.56
1.22
Udinese xG
2.53
39%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
2.95
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
30%
3.39
26%
3.81
Win to Nil
12%
8.58
9%
11.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 9.5 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.6 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.5 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Roma vs Udinese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are AS Roma and Udinese expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for AS Roma and 1.22 for Udinese, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Roma vs Udinese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
AS Roma's recent record stands at 3W 0D 1L from 4 games, a 2.25 PPG return, with W-W-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for AS Roma, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Udinese, meanwhile, have gone 2W 1D 1L across 4 games — 1.75 PPG, with D-W-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Udinese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours AS Roma by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Udinese heading into this one.
The Goals Picture
AS Roma are averaging 2.75 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Udinese are on 1.50 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: AS Roma have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; Udinese in 25%.
Defensively: Udinese in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Roma
Early Season
Udinese
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AS Roma and Udinese in coming into this match?
AS Roma have gone 3W 0D 1L in their last 4 games (2.25 PPG), while Udinese have gone 2W 1D 1L in their last 4 (1.75 PPG).
Have AS Roma or Udinese been keeping clean sheets recently?
AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Udinese in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between AS Roma and Udinese runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 2 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Sep 2022, when Udinese won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
AS Roma's record when hosting Udinese specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
AS Roma
1
Draws
2
Udinese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Udinese?
From 10 meetings on record, AS Roma have won 7, Udinese have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did AS Roma and Udinese last play each other?
They last met on 2 February 2026, when Udinese 1-0 AS Roma.
Who has won more matches between AS Roma and Udinese?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Roma 75%, Udinese 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for AS Roma and 75% for Udinese. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 75% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Udinese in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Roma home games / Udinese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AS Roma play Udinese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of AS Roma's recent matches and 25% of Udinese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AS Roma vs Udinese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of AS Roma's matches and 75% of Udinese's.
Do AS Roma and Udinese tend to score early?
AS Roma have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Udinese in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AS Roma edge out Udinese 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Roma beat Udinese 1-0 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 5, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Roma 1.34 xG and Udinese 1.22 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Udinese landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Roma attack 1.17 / defence 1.01 against Udinese attack 0.76 / defence 0.97, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Roma 39% | Draw 27% | Udinese 34%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 88% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Roma 100%, Udinese 75%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Roma's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Udinese's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, AS Roma arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 1.75. The form guide was vindicated by the result. AS Roma managed 1 against a 2.75 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Udinese managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.