Lazio 3-2 AS Roma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lazio at 43%, yet in-form AS Roma provide a compelling counter-argument — this Lazio vs AS Roma fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Olimpico plays host to Lazio versus AS Roma in Serie A, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Sunday 26 September 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Lazio (all games): 2W 2D 1L across 5 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L D D. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Lazio have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
AS Roma's overall Serie A record this term: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games (2.40 PPG). Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets in 5 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. AS Roma have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. AS Roma are 0.80 PPG clear of Lazio in recent Serie A fixtures (2.40 vs 1.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using overall form) — Lazio have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, AS Roma in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Lazio goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; Over 3.5 in 60%.
AS Roma goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; they lead at the break 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games; Over 3.5 in 60%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lazio 80% and AS Roma 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Lazio 60% | AS Roma 80%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lazio 2.11 xG and AS Roma 1.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lazio attack 1.394 / defence 1.135 | AS Roma attack 1.062 / defence 1.226. League average goals — home 1.234 / away 1.612. Lazio carry an above-average attack strength of 1.394 — their λ of 2.11 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. AS Roma bring a strong defensive rating of 1.226 — this is suppressing Lazio's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 Lazio games / 5 AS Roma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lazio 43% | Draw 20% | AS Roma 37%. Fair-value odds: Lazio 2.33 | Draw 5.00 | AS Roma 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 20% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 77% | BTTS probability 75% | Total xG 4.05. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 77% — a total xG of 4.05 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 75% reflects that both xG figures (2.11 / 1.94) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Lazio as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form AS Roma (2.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 4.05 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 77% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 75% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lazio 80% | AS Roma 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lazio vs AS Roma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Sep 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lazio 43% | Draw 20% | AS Roma 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 77% | BTTS 75% | xG Lazio 2.11 / AS Roma 1.94 • Poisson strength factors: Lazio attack 1.394 / def 1.135 | AS Roma attack 1.062 / def 1.226 | league avg home 1.234 / away 1.612 • Poisson stance: Lazio (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
2.11
Lazio xG
Expected Goals
1.94
AS Roma xG
75%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
58%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lazio vs AS Roma kick off?
Lazio vs AS Roma kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 26 September 2021 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in Lazio vs AS Roma?
Lazio 3 - 2 AS Roma.
Where is Lazio vs AS Roma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is Lazio vs AS Roma part of?
Lazio vs AS Roma is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Lazio vs AS Roma?
Our statistical model gives Lazio a 43% chance of winning, AS Roma a 37% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Lazio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lazio vs AS Roma?
Our model estimates a 75% probability that both Lazio and AS Roma will score (BTTS).
Will Lazio vs AS Roma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 77%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lazio and AS Roma?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lazio and AS Roma in?
Lazio (all comps): 2W-2D-1L in 5 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-D-D. AS Roma (all comps): 4W-0D-1L in 5 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Lazio's attacking strength (1.39x league average) is weighed against AS Roma's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.11. Flip it around — AS Roma's attack (1.06x) against Lazio's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.94.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 8.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (7.5%), 2-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lazio Win
43%
2.33
20%
4.88
37%
2.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
7.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 2
7.3%
Draw
1 – 1
7.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.11
Lazio xG
Total xG
4.05
1.94
AS Roma xG
2.33
43%
Home win
4.88
20%
Draw
2.73
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
77%
Over 2.5
1.30
23%
Under 2.5
4.35
58%
Over 3.5
1.72
42%
Under 3.5
2.38
38%
Over 4.5
2.63
62%
Under 4.5
1.61
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
75%
BTTS Yes
1.33
25%
BTTS No
4.05
Clean Sheet
14%
6.99
12%
8.24
Win to Nil
6%
16.28
4%
22.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.7 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 3.7 | 7.1 | 6.9 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 7.5 | 7.3 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 5.3 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lazio vs AS Roma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.0%.
How many goals are Lazio and AS Roma expected to score?
The model projects 2.11 expected goals for Lazio and 1.94 for AS Roma, a combined total of 4.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Lazio vs AS Roma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Lazio's recent record stands at 2W 2D 1L from 5 games, a 1.60 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Lazio, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
AS Roma, meanwhile, have gone 4W 0D 1L across 5 games — 2.40 PPG, with W-W-W-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for AS Roma, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours AS Roma by 0.80 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Lazio heading into this one.
Attack vs Defence
Lazio are averaging 2.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; AS Roma are on 2.40 scored and 1.00 conceded. Lazio's scoring rate against AS Roma's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Lazio have seen both teams score in 80% of their recent games; AS Roma in 60%.
Defensively: AS Roma in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lazio
Early Season
AS Roma
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lazio and AS Roma in coming into this match?
Lazio have gone 2W 2D 1L in their last 5 games (1.60 PPG), while AS Roma have gone 4W 0D 1L in their last 5 (2.40 PPG).
Have Lazio or AS Roma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lazio have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, AS Roma in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
AS Roma go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AS Roma won 3-0 on 20 Mar 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lazio have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against AS Roma — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Lazio
2
Draws
5
AS Roma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lazio and AS Roma?
From 10 meetings on record, Lazio have won 3, AS Roma have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lazio and AS Roma last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when AS Roma 2-0 Lazio.
Who has won more matches between Lazio and AS Roma?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lazio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 80% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 80% for Lazio, 60% for AS Roma — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Lazio and 80% for AS Roma. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AS Roma in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lazio home games / AS Roma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lazio play AS Roma?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Lazio's games and 60% of AS Roma's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lazio vs AS Roma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Lazio's matches and 80% of AS Roma's.
Do Lazio and AS Roma tend to score early?
Lazio have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, AS Roma in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lazio edge out AS Roma 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lazio beat AS Roma 3-2 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 6, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lazio 2.11 xG and AS Roma 1.94 xG, a combined 4.05. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Lazio beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lazio attack 1.39 / defence 1.14 against AS Roma attack 1.06 / defence 1.23, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lazio 43% | Draw 20% | AS Roma 37%, with Lazio to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 58% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 75% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lazio 60%, AS Roma 80%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lazio's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
AS Roma's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, AS Roma arrived the stronger side — 2.40 PPG against 1.60. Form was overturned, with Lazio winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. AS Roma shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.