Venezia 1-1 Torino – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Torino at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Venezia vs Torino encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Torino make the trip to Stadio Pierluigi Penzo to face Venezia in Serie A, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Monday 27 September 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Venezia (all games): 1W 0D 4L across 5 Serie A fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Venezia have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Torino's overall Serie A record this term: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L L W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 2 clean sheets in 5 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Torino have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Torino arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading Data
Venezia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; they fail to score in 60% of games.
Torino goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Venezia 40% versus Torino 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Venezia 60% | Torino 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Venezia 1.11 xG and Torino 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Venezia attack 0.810 / defence 1.217 | Torino attack 0.774 / defence 1.103. League average goals — home 1.245 / away 1.584. Data: 5 Venezia games / 5 Torino games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Venezia 28% | Draw 26% | Torino 46%. Fair-value odds: Venezia 3.57 | Draw 3.85 | Torino 2.17. Torino hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Torino at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Torino if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.60 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Venezia 40% | Torino 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Venezia vs Torino | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadio Pierluigi Penzo • Kick-off: Monday 27 Sep 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Venezia 28% | Draw 26% | Torino 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Venezia 1.11 / Torino 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Venezia attack 0.810 / def 1.217 | Torino attack 0.774 / def 1.103 | league avg home 1.245 / away 1.584 • Poisson stance: Torino (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Venezia xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Torino xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Venezia vs Torino kick off?
Venezia vs Torino kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 27 September 2021 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What was the final score in Venezia vs Torino?
Venezia 1 - 1 Torino.
Where is Venezia vs Torino being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What competition is Venezia vs Torino part of?
Venezia vs Torino is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Venezia vs Torino?
Our statistical model gives Venezia a 28% chance of winning, Torino a 46% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Torino the favourite.
Will both teams score in Venezia vs Torino?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Venezia and Torino will score (BTTS).
Will Venezia vs Torino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Torino?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Venezia and Torino in?
Venezia (all comps): 1W-0D-4L in 5 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Torino (all comps): 2W-1D-2L in 5 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Venezia's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Torino's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.11. Flip it around — Torino's attack (0.77x) against Venezia's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.49.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.4%), 1-2 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Torino Win
28%
3.53
26%
3.87
46%
2.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Venezia xG
Total xG
2.60
1.49
Torino xG
3.53
28%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
2.18
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
23%
4.44
33%
3.04
Win to Nil
6%
15.69
15%
6.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 11.0 | 8.2 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.3 | 9.2 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 6.8 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Venezia vs Torino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Venezia and Torino expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Venezia and 1.49 for Torino, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Venezia vs Torino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 5 outings, Venezia have picked up 0.60 PPG on a 1W 0D 4L record — L-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Venezia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Torino's form line: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games, 1.40 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-D. It's still early in the season for Torino, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Torino are the form team by 0.80 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Venezia.
Attack vs Defence
Venezia are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Torino are on 1.60 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Torino in 60%.
Defensively: Torino in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Venezia
Early Season
Torino
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Venezia and Torino in coming into this match?
Venezia have gone 1W 0D 4L in their last 5 games (0.60 PPG), while Torino have gone 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 (1.40 PPG).
Have Venezia or Torino been keeping clean sheets recently?
Venezia have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Torino in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Venezia have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Torino — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Venezia
2
Draws
1
Torino
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Torino?
From 4 meetings on record, Venezia have won 1, Torino have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Venezia and Torino last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2025, when Torino 1-1 Venezia.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Torino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Venezia 40%, Torino 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Venezia and 60% for Torino. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Torino in 40%; Venezia have failed to score in 60% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Venezia home games / Torino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Venezia play Torino?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Venezia's recent matches and 60% of Torino's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Venezia vs Torino usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Venezia's matches and 60% of Torino's.
Do Venezia and Torino tend to score early?
Venezia have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Torino in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Venezia and Torino share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Venezia and Torino finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Regular Season - 6, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Venezia 1.11 xG and Torino 1.49 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Venezia attack 0.81 / defence 1.22 against Torino attack 0.77 / defence 1.10, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Venezia 28% | Draw 26% | Torino 46%, with Torino to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Venezia 60%, Torino 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Venezia's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Torino's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Torino arrived the stronger side — 1.40 PPG against 0.60. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Venezia conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.