Napoli 2-0 Cagliari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Napoli at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Napoli vs Cagliari encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Diego Armando Maradona plays host to Napoli versus Cagliari in Serie A, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Sunday 26 September 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Napoli's overall Serie A record this term: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games (3.00 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 5 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Napoli have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cagliari (all games): 0W 2D 3L across 5 Serie A outings this term — 0.40 points per game. Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Cagliari have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The points-per-game gap of 2.60 in Napoli's favour (3.00 vs 0.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading
Napoli half-time and goal-timing data (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time.
Cagliari half-time and goal-timing data (5 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 40% of cases; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games; Over 3.5 in 80%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Napoli 40% and Cagliari 80% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Napoli 80% | Cagliari 80%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Napoli 1.71 xG and Cagliari 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Napoli attack 1.022 / defence 0.949 | Cagliari attack 0.892 / defence 1.347. League average goals — home 1.243 / away 1.613. Cagliari bring a strong defensive rating of 1.347 — this is suppressing Napoli's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 Napoli games / 5 Cagliari games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Napoli 46% | Draw 24% | Cagliari 31%. Fair-value odds: Napoli 2.17 | Draw 4.17 | Cagliari 3.23. Napoli hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.71 / 1.37) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Napoli at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Napoli if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.08 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Napoli 40% | Cagliari 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Napoli vs Cagliari | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadio Diego Armando Maradona • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Sep 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Napoli 46% | Draw 24% | Cagliari 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG Napoli 1.71 / Cagliari 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Napoli attack 1.022 / def 0.949 | Cagliari attack 0.892 / def 1.347 | league avg home 1.243 / away 1.613 • Poisson stance: Napoli (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Napoli xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Cagliari xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Napoli vs Cagliari kick off?
Napoli vs Cagliari kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 26 September 2021 at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.
What was the final score in Napoli vs Cagliari?
Napoli 2 - 0 Cagliari.
Where is Napoli vs Cagliari being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.
What competition is Napoli vs Cagliari part of?
Napoli vs Cagliari is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Napoli vs Cagliari?
Our statistical model gives Napoli a 46% chance of winning, Cagliari a 31% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Napoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Napoli vs Cagliari?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Napoli and Cagliari will score (BTTS).
Will Napoli vs Cagliari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Napoli and Cagliari?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Napoli and Cagliari in?
Napoli (all comps): 5W-0D-0L in 5 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Cagliari (all comps): 0W-2D-3L in 5 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.60 | L5 D-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Napoli's attack rating (1.02) and Cagliari's defence rating (1.35), the model arrives at 1.71 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cagliari's attack (0.89x) against Napoli's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Napoli Win
46%
2.19
24%
4.24
31%
3.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Napoli xG
Total xG
3.08
1.37
Cagliari xG
2.19
46%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
3.25
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
26%
3.92
18%
5.53
Win to Nil
12%
8.58
6%
18.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 6.3 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 10.8 | 7.4 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.2 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 5.3 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Napoli vs Cagliari?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Napoli and Cagliari expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Napoli and 1.37 for Cagliari, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Napoli vs Cagliari?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 5 outings, Napoli have picked up 3.00 PPG on a 5W 0D 0L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Napoli, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Cagliari's form line: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games, 0.40 PPG, last five D-L-L-D-L. It's still early in the season for Cagliari, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Napoli are the form team by 2.60 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cagliari.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Napoli are averaging 2.80 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game recently; Cagliari are on 1.40 scored and 2.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cagliari in 80%.
Defensively: Napoli have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Napoli
Early Season
Cagliari
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Napoli and Cagliari in coming into this match?
Napoli have gone 5W 0D 0L in their last 5 games (3.00 PPG), while Cagliari have gone 0W 2D 3L in their last 5 (0.40 PPG).
Have Napoli or Cagliari been keeping clean sheets recently?
Napoli have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their recent games, Cagliari in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 20 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Napoli go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Napoli won 0-4 on 15 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Napoli have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Cagliari — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Napoli
2
Draws
0
Cagliari
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Napoli and Cagliari?
From 8 meetings on record, Napoli have won 6, Cagliari have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Napoli and Cagliari last play each other?
They last met on 20 March 2026, when Cagliari 0-1 Napoli.
Who has won more matches between Napoli and Cagliari?
Napoli have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Napoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Napoli 40%, Cagliari 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Napoli and 80% for Cagliari. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 80% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Napoli keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Napoli home games / Cagliari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Napoli play Cagliari?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Napoli's games and 80% of Cagliari's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Napoli vs Cagliari usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Napoli's matches and 80% of Cagliari's.
Do Napoli and Cagliari tend to score early?
Napoli have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Cagliari in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Napoli cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Cagliari.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Napoli beat Cagliari 2-0 at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Regular Season - 6, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Napoli 1.71 xG and Cagliari 1.37 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Cagliari landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Napoli attack 1.02 / defence 0.95 against Cagliari attack 0.89 / defence 1.35, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Napoli 46% | Draw 24% | Cagliari 31%, with Napoli to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 80% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Napoli 80%, Cagliari 80%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Napoli's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time, and duly kept one.
Cagliari's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Napoli arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.40. Form held, and they took the win. Cagliari managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.