Cagliari 1-1 Napoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Napoli (42%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Cagliari face Napoli.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Unipol Domus plays host to Cagliari versus Napoli in Serie A, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Sunday 25 February 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cagliari have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cagliari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cagliari at Unipol Domus this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Cagliari are significantly better at Unipol Domus than their overall form suggests.
Napoli's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W D W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Napoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Napoli away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On a straight form reading, Napoli are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.20 vs 0.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Cagliari lead 0W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Dec 2023, ended 1–2 with Napoli winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Cagliari — key trading statistics (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Napoli — key trading statistics (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cagliari 60% versus Napoli 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cagliari 50% | Napoli 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cagliari 1.04 xG and Napoli 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cagliari attack 0.861 / defence 1.322 | Napoli attack 0.896 / defence 0.832. League average goals — home 1.455 / away 1.151. Data: 25 Cagliari games / 62 Napoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cagliari 27% | Draw 31% | Napoli 42%. Fair-value odds: Cagliari 3.70 | Draw 3.23 | Napoli 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Napoli are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Napoli if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.41 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Cagliari 90% | Napoli 20%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cagliari vs Napoli | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Unipol Domus • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Feb 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cagliari 27% | Draw 31% | Napoli 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 50% | xG Cagliari 1.04 / Napoli 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Cagliari attack 0.861 / def 1.322 | Napoli attack 0.896 / def 0.832 | league avg home 1.455 / away 1.151 • Poisson stance: Napoli (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Cagliari xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Napoli xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cagliari vs Napoli kick off?
Cagliari vs Napoli kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 25 February 2024 at Unipol Domus.
What was the final score in Cagliari vs Napoli?
Cagliari 1 - 1 Napoli.
Where is Cagliari vs Napoli being played?
The match is being played at Unipol Domus.
What competition is Cagliari vs Napoli part of?
Cagliari vs Napoli is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cagliari vs Napoli?
Our statistical model gives Cagliari a 27% chance of winning, Napoli a 42% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Napoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cagliari vs Napoli?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Cagliari and Napoli will score (BTTS).
Will Cagliari vs Napoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Napoli?
Record (3 meetings): Cagliari 0W | Draws 1 | Napoli 2W.
What form are Cagliari and Napoli in?
Cagliari (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Napoli (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Cagliari's attack rating (0.86) and Napoli's defence rating (0.83), the model arrives at 1.04 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Napoli's attack (0.90x) against Cagliari's defence (1.32x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
These ratings are built from 25/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 0-1 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Napoli Win
27%
3.72
31%
3.25
42%
2.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Cagliari xG
Total xG
2.41
1.36
Napoli xG
3.72
27%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
2.36
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
26%
3.91
35%
2.83
Win to Nil
7%
14.57
15%
6.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 12.3 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.8 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 6.7 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cagliari vs Napoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Cagliari and Napoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Cagliari and 1.36 for Napoli, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Cagliari vs Napoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 62 outings, Cagliari have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 19W 23D 20L record — L-L-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Cagliari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Napoli's form line: 38W 12D 12L from 62 games, 2.03 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-D. The sample for Napoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Napoli are the form team by 0.74 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cagliari.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Cagliari have posted 1.77 PPG from 31 outings (15W 10D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 1.29 PPG overall — Cagliari are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Napoli have gone 19W 6D 6L from 31 away games — 2.03 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cagliari are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Napoli are on 1.77 scored and 0.90 conceded.
Defensively: Napoli in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cagliari
Blended
Napoli
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cagliari and Napoli in coming into this match?
Cagliari have gone 19W 23D 20L in their last 62 games (1.29 PPG), while Napoli have gone 38W 12D 12L in their last 62 (2.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cagliari at home or Napoli away?
Napoli's away record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cagliari at home: 1.77 PPG; Napoli away: 2.03 PPG.
Have Cagliari or Napoli been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cagliari have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Napoli in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 20 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Napoli go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Napoli won 0-4 on 15 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cagliari have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Napoli — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Cagliari
2
Draws
6
Napoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Napoli?
From 8 meetings on record, Cagliari have won 0, Napoli have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cagliari and Napoli last play each other?
They last met on 20 March 2026, when Cagliari 0-1 Napoli.
Who has won more matches between Cagliari and Napoli?
Napoli have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Napoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cagliari 74%, Napoli 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Cagliari) and 48% (Napoli).
On the defensive side: Napoli in 42%; Napoli in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cagliari home games / Napoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cagliari play Napoli?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of Cagliari's games and 39% of Napoli's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cagliari vs Napoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Cagliari's recent games and 48% of Napoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cagliari and Napoli tend to score early?
Cagliari have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Napoli in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cagliari and Napoli share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Unipol Domus, Regular Season - 26, as Cagliari and Napoli drew 1-1 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cagliari 1.04 xG and Napoli 1.36 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cagliari attack 0.86 / defence 1.32 against Napoli attack 0.90 / defence 0.83, drawn from 25/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cagliari 27% | Draw 31% | Napoli 42%, with Napoli to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cagliari 50%, Napoli 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cagliari's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Napoli's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Napoli arrived the stronger side — 2.03 PPG against 1.29. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.