Udinese 3-0 Bologna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Bologna (41%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Udinese face Bologna.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bologna make the trip to Bluenergy Stadium to face Udinese in Serie A, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Saturday 30 December 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Udinese (all games): 1W 7D 2L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Udinese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Bluenergy Stadium, Udinese have gone 0W 6D 4L this season (10 games, 0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Bologna have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W D W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bologna away from home this season: 3W 6D 1L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Bologna are 1.10 PPG clear of Udinese in recent Serie A fixtures (2.10 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Udinese lead 0W to 2W over the last 4 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Apr 2023, ended 0–3 with Bologna winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Udinese — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Bologna — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Udinese 54% versus Bologna 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Udinese 47% | Bologna 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Udinese 1.23 xG and Bologna 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Udinese attack 0.982 / defence 1.314 | Bologna attack 1.024 / defence 0.899. League average goals — home 1.389 / away 1.074. Data: 55 Udinese games / 55 Bologna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Udinese 31% | Draw 28% | Bologna 41%. Fair-value odds: Udinese 3.23 | Draw 3.57 | Bologna 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bologna are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bologna if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.67 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Udinese 50% | Bologna 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Udinese vs Bologna | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Bluenergy Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Dec 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Udinese 31% | Draw 28% | Bologna 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Udinese 1.23 / Bologna 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Udinese attack 0.982 / def 1.314 | Bologna attack 1.024 / def 0.899 | league avg home 1.389 / away 1.074 • Poisson stance: Bologna (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Udinese xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Bologna xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Udinese vs Bologna kick off?
Udinese vs Bologna kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 30 December 2023 at Bluenergy Stadium.
What was the final score in Udinese vs Bologna?
Udinese 3 - 0 Bologna.
Where is Udinese vs Bologna being played?
The match is being played at Bluenergy Stadium.
What competition is Udinese vs Bologna part of?
Udinese vs Bologna is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Udinese vs Bologna?
Our statistical model gives Udinese a 31% chance of winning, Bologna a 41% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Udinese vs Bologna?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Udinese and Bologna will score (BTTS).
Will Udinese vs Bologna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Bologna?
Record (4 meetings): Udinese 0W | Draws 2 | Bologna 2W.
What form are Udinese and Bologna in?
Udinese (all comps): 1W-7D-2L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-D-D. Bologna (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Udinese's attack at 0.98x the league average against Bologna's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.23 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bologna's attack (1.02x) against Udinese's defence (1.31x) — and the away total comes out at 1.45.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
31%
3.21
28%
3.64
41%
2.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Udinese xG
Total xG
2.67
1.45
Bologna xG
3.21
31%
Home win
3.64
28%
Draw
2.42
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
24%
4.24
29%
3.41
Win to Nil
7%
13.60
12%
8.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 10.0 | 7.2 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.3 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.5 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Udinese vs Bologna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Udinese and Bologna expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Udinese and 1.45 for Bologna, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Udinese vs Bologna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Udinese come into this having played 55 games, going 12W 24D 19L for 1.09 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-D-D. The sample for Udinese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bologna sit at 1.55 PPG from 55 outings (22W 19D 14L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Bologna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bologna carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.46 PPG clear of Udinese — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Udinese's home form reads 6W 15D 6L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.22 PPG return.
Away from home, Bologna have taken 1.22 points per game from 27 outings (8W 9D 10L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Udinese are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Bologna are on 1.35 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Udinese
Blended
Bologna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Udinese and Bologna in coming into this match?
Udinese have gone 12W 24D 19L in their last 55 games (1.09 PPG), while Bologna have gone 22W 19D 14L in their last 55 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Udinese at home or Bologna away?
Udinese's home record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Udinese at home: 1.22 PPG; Bologna away: 1.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 23 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Bologna have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bologna won 3-0 on 2 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Udinese have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bologna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Udinese
5
Draws
4
Bologna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Bologna?
From 10 meetings on record, Udinese have won 1, Bologna have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Udinese and Bologna last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2026, when Bologna 1-0 Udinese.
Who has won more matches between Udinese and Bologna?
Bologna have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 63% for Udinese, 74% for Bologna — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Udinese) and 63% (Bologna). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Udinese home games / Bologna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Udinese play Bologna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Udinese's games and 74% of Bologna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Udinese vs Bologna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Udinese's matches and 63% of Bologna's.
Do Udinese and Bologna tend to score early?
Udinese have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Bologna in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Udinese run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Bologna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Udinese beat Bologna 3-0 at Bluenergy Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Udinese 1.23 xG and Bologna 1.45 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Udinese beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bologna landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Udinese attack 0.98 / defence 1.31 against Bologna attack 1.02 / defence 0.90, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Udinese 31% | Draw 28% | Bologna 41%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Udinese win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Udinese 47%, Bologna 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Udinese's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Bologna's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Bologna arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 1.09. Form was overturned, with Udinese winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Udinese (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line. Bologna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.59 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.