Cagliari 0-0 Empoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cagliari at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cagliari vs Empoli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Empoli travel to Unipol Domus to take on Cagliari. The game is scheduled for Saturday 30 December 2023, 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Cagliari — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Cagliari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cagliari's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Unipol Domus this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Serie A games this season, Empoli have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Empoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Empoli away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Cagliari at 1.10 PPG versus Empoli's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Cagliari, 1 for Empoli and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Feb 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Cagliari in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Empoli in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cagliari 56% versus Empoli 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cagliari 47% | Empoli 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cagliari 1.44 xG and Empoli 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cagliari attack 0.943 / defence 1.368 | Empoli attack 0.844 / defence 1.098. League average goals — home 1.389 / away 1.074. Data: 17 Cagliari games / 55 Empoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cagliari 41% | Draw 28% | Empoli 32%. Fair-value odds: Cagliari 2.44 | Draw 3.57 | Empoli 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cagliari are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cagliari offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.68 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Cagliari 80% | Empoli 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cagliari vs Empoli | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Unipol Domus • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Dec 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cagliari 41% | Draw 28% | Empoli 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Cagliari 1.44 / Empoli 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Cagliari attack 0.943 / def 1.368 | Empoli attack 0.844 / def 1.098 | league avg home 1.389 / away 1.074 • Poisson stance: Cagliari (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Cagliari xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Empoli xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cagliari vs Empoli kick off?
Cagliari vs Empoli kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 30 December 2023 at Unipol Domus.
What was the final score in Cagliari vs Empoli?
Cagliari 0 - 0 Empoli.
Where is Cagliari vs Empoli being played?
The match is being played at Unipol Domus.
What competition is Cagliari vs Empoli part of?
Cagliari vs Empoli is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cagliari vs Empoli?
Our statistical model gives Cagliari a 41% chance of winning, Empoli a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Cagliari the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cagliari vs Empoli?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Cagliari and Empoli will score (BTTS).
Will Cagliari vs Empoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Empoli?
Record (2 meetings): Cagliari 0W | Draws 1 | Empoli 1W.
What form are Cagliari and Empoli in?
Cagliari (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Empoli (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Cagliari's attack at 0.94x the league average against Empoli's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.44 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Empoli's attack versus Cagliari's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cagliari Win
41%
2.45
28%
3.64
32%
3.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Cagliari xG
Total xG
2.68
1.24
Empoli xG
2.45
41%
Home win
3.64
28%
Draw
3.16
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
24%
4.21
Win to Nil
12%
8.46
8%
13.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 8.5 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.3 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.8 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cagliari vs Empoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Cagliari and Empoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Cagliari and 1.24 for Empoli, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Cagliari vs Empoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cagliari's recent record stands at 18W 20D 17L from 55 games, a 1.35 PPG return, with D-L-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Cagliari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Empoli, meanwhile, have gone 13W 16D 26L across 55 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-D-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Empoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cagliari on 1.35 PPG, Empoli on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Cagliari have managed 14W 9D 4L from 27 games — 1.89 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.35 PPG overall — Cagliari are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Empoli's away record stands at 4W 10D 13L across 27 trips, a 0.81 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cagliari come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Cagliari are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Empoli are on 0.85 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cagliari
Blended
Empoli
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cagliari and Empoli in coming into this match?
Cagliari have gone 18W 20D 17L in their last 55 games (1.35 PPG), while Empoli have gone 13W 16D 26L in their last 55 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cagliari at home or Empoli away?
Cagliari's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cagliari at home: 1.89 PPG; Empoli away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cagliari and Empoli runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Cagliari's record when hosting Empoli specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Cagliari
3
Draws
2
Empoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Empoli?
From 6 meetings on record, Cagliari have won 1, Empoli have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cagliari and Empoli last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2025, when Empoli 0-0 Cagliari.
Who has won more matches between Cagliari and Empoli?
Empoli have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Empoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cagliari 74%, Empoli 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Cagliari) and 33% (Empoli).
On the defensive side: Empoli in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cagliari home games / Empoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cagliari play Empoli?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of Cagliari's games and 48% of Empoli's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cagliari vs Empoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Cagliari's recent games and 33% of Empoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cagliari and Empoli tend to score early?
Cagliari have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Empoli in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Cagliari's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cagliari and Empoli finished level at 0-0 at Unipol Domus, Regular Season - 18, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cagliari 1.44 xG and Empoli 1.24 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Cagliari fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Empoli landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cagliari attack 0.94 / defence 1.37 against Empoli attack 0.84 / defence 1.10, drawn from 17/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cagliari 41% | Draw 28% | Empoli 32%, with Cagliari to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cagliari 47%, Empoli 34%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cagliari's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Empoli's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cagliari 1.35 PPG, Empoli 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Cagliari (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line. Empoli (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.