Genoa 1-1 Inter – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Inter at 61% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Genoa vs Inter encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Inter make the trip to Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris to face Genoa in Serie A (matchday 18). The match kicks off on Friday 29 December 2023 at 19:45 UK time.
Current Form
Genoa's record over their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Last five: L D L D W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
In front of their own supporters, Genoa have posted 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Genoa are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Inter have collected 2.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 8W 2D 0L. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Inter's form when playing away from home: 8W 1D 1L across their last 10 road games (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 7 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (70%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Inter arrive in superior form — a 1.50 PPG advantage (2.60 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Genoa, 1 for Inter and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 25 Feb 2022, ended Genoa 0–0 Inter — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Genoa — key trading statistics (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Inter — key trading statistics (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genoa 42% versus Inter 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genoa 40% | Inter 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genoa 0.71 xG and Inter 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genoa attack 0.883 / defence 1.039 | Inter attack 1.519 / defence 0.579. League average goals — home 1.381 / away 1.086. Inter bring a tight defence (rating 0.579, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Genoa's projected output down. Inter have an above-average attack rating of 1.519, which lifts their away xG to 1.71. Data: built from Genoa's last 17 games and Inter's last 55.
Result probabilities: Genoa 14% | Draw 25% | Inter 61%. Fair-value odds: Genoa 7.01 | Draw 4.02 | Inter 1.64. The model has a clear lean to Inter (61%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Inter are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.42 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 58%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Genoa 70% (last 10 home games) | Inter 30% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genoa vs Inter | Competition: Serie A, matchday 18 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Friday 29 December 2023 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genoa 14% | Draw 25% | Inter 61% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Genoa 0.71 / Inter 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: Genoa attack 0.883 / def 1.039 | Inter attack 1.519 / def 0.579 | league avg home 1.381 / away 1.086 • Poisson stance: Inter (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.71
Genoa xG
Expected Goals
1.71
Inter xG
42%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Genoa vs Inter FAQs
What time does Genoa vs Inter kick off?
Genoa vs Inter kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Friday 29 December 2023 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Genoa vs Inter?
Genoa 1 - 1 Inter.
Where is Genoa vs Inter being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Genoa vs Inter part of?
Genoa vs Inter is a Serie A fixture (matchday 18) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Genoa vs Inter?
Our statistical model gives Genoa a 14% chance of winning, Inter a 61% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Inter the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genoa vs Inter?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Genoa and Inter will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Genoa vs Inter have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Genoa's attack at 0.88x the league average against Inter's defence at 0.58x — combine the two and it projects 0.71 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Inter's attack (1.52x) against Genoa's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.71.
These ratings are built from Genoa's last 17 games and Inter's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (13.1%), 1-1 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Inter Win
14%
7.01
25%
4.02
61%
1.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
13.1%
Away win
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.71
Genoa xG
Total xG
2.42
1.71
Inter xG
7.01
14%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
1.64
61%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
18%
5.55
49%
2.03
Win to Nil
3%
38.93
30%
3.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 15.2 | 13.1 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 10.8 | 9.2 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Genoa vs Inter Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Genoa vs Inter?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Genoa and Inter expected to score?
The model projects 0.71 expected goals for Genoa and 1.71 for Inter, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Genoa vs Inter?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 55 outings, Genoa have picked up 1.69 PPG on a 26W 15D 14L record — L-D-L-D-W across the most recent five.
Inter's form line: 37W 5D 13L from 55 games, 2.11 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Inter are the form team by 0.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Genoa.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Genoa have posted 2.00 PPG from their last 27 home games (15W 9D 3L).
On the road, Inter have gone 16W 4D 7L from their last 27 away games — 1.93 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Genoa are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Inter are on 2.04 scored and 0.89 conceded. Inter's attacking output running into Genoa's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Genoa have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games; Inter in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genoa
Blended
Inter
Blended
Genoa (Home) vs Inter (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Genoa
Blended
Inter
Blended
❓ Genoa vs Inter Form FAQs
What form are Genoa and Inter in coming into this match?
Genoa have gone 26W 15D 14L in their last 55 games (1.69 PPG), while Inter have gone 37W 5D 13L in their last 55 (2.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genoa at home or Inter away?
Genoa's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genoa at home: 2.00 PPG; Inter away: 1.93 PPG.
Have Genoa or Inter been keeping clean sheets recently?
Genoa have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Inter in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 8 H2H matches between Genoa and Inter, the earliest from August 2021. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was on 28 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Inter have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Inter won Inter 4-0 Genoa on 21 Aug 2021, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Genoa have gone 0W 3D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Inter — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Genoa
3
Draws
5
Inter
Recent Meetings
❓ Genoa vs Inter H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Inter?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Genoa have won 0, Inter have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Genoa and Inter last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 February 2026: Inter 2-0 Genoa.
Who has won more matches between Genoa and Inter?
Inter have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Inter are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genoa 37%, Inter 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Genoa) and 63% (Inter).
On the defensive side: Genoa keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Inter in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genoa home games / Inter away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Genoa vs Inter Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Genoa and Inter matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Genoa's recent matches and 52% of Inter's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Genoa and Inter matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Genoa's recent games and 63% of Inter's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Genoa and Inter matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Genoa's recent matches and 67% of Inter's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Genoa and Inter share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 18, as Genoa and Inter drew 1-1 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genoa 0.71 xG and Inter 1.71 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genoa attack 0.88 / defence 1.04 against Inter attack 1.52 / defence 0.58, drawn from 17/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genoa 14% | Draw 25% | Inter 61%, with Inter to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genoa 40%, Inter 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genoa's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Inter's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Inter arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 1.69. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Inter (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.93 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Serie A fixtures — matchday 18
All Serie A fixtures →
More Italian football predictions →