Torino 1-1 Udinese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Torino at 54% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Torino vs Udinese encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Udinese travel to Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino to take on Torino. The game is scheduled for Saturday 23 December 2023, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Torino stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L W D W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Torino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Torino have posted 4W 4D 2L at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Serie A games this season, Udinese have recorded 1W 7D 2L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Udinese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Udinese's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Torino are in the better shape of the two on current Serie A data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Torino, 1 for Udinese and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Feb 2023, ended 1–0 with Torino winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Torino trading profile (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (home games).
Udinese trading profile (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Torino 43% versus Udinese 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Torino 33% | Udinese 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Torino 1.42 xG and Udinese 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Torino attack 0.886 / defence 0.777 | Udinese attack 0.763 / defence 1.148. League average goals — home 1.395 / away 1.136. Torino's defence rating of 0.777 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 54 Torino games / 54 Udinese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Torino 54% | Draw 28% | Udinese 17%. Fair-value odds: Torino 1.85 | Draw 3.57 | Udinese 5.88. Torino hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Torino are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Torino offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.09 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. Form rates corroborate: Torino 30% | Udinese 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Torino vs Udinese | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Dec 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Torino 54% | Draw 28% | Udinese 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 38% | xG Torino 1.42 / Udinese 0.67 • Poisson strength factors: Torino attack 0.886 / def 0.777 | Udinese attack 0.763 / def 1.148 | league avg home 1.395 / away 1.136 • Poisson stance: Torino (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Torino xG
Expected Goals
0.67
Udinese xG
38%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Torino vs Udinese kick off?
Torino vs Udinese kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 23 December 2023 at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino.
What was the final score in Torino vs Udinese?
Torino 1 - 1 Udinese.
Where is Torino vs Udinese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino.
What competition is Torino vs Udinese part of?
Torino vs Udinese is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Torino vs Udinese?
Our statistical model gives Torino a 54% chance of winning, Udinese a 17% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Torino the favourite.
Will both teams score in Torino vs Udinese?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Torino and Udinese will score (BTTS).
Will Torino vs Udinese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Torino and Udinese?
Record (4 meetings): Torino 3W | Draws 0 | Udinese 1W.
What form are Torino and Udinese in?
Torino (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-W-D-W. Udinese (all comps): 1W-7D-2L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Torino's attack rating (0.89) and Udinese's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.42 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Udinese's attack versus Torino's defence, projects 0.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.9%), 1-1 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Torino Win
54%
1.84
28%
3.52
17%
5.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.4%
Home win
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Torino xG
Total xG
2.09
0.67
Udinese xG
1.84
54%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
5.84
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.65
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
51%
1.96
24%
4.14
Win to Nil
28%
3.60
4%
24.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 8.3 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.5 | 11.8 | 4.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.4 | 8.4 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.9 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Torino vs Udinese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.0%.
How many goals are Torino and Udinese expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Torino and 0.67 for Udinese, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Torino vs Udinese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 54 outings, Torino have picked up 1.41 PPG on a 20W 16D 18L record — D-L-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Torino is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Udinese's form line: 12W 23D 19L from 54 games, 1.09 PPG, last five D-L-D-L-D. The sample for Udinese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Torino on 1.41 PPG, Udinese on 1.09. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Torino have posted 1.37 PPG from 27 outings (9W 10D 8L).
On the road, Udinese have gone 6W 8D 13L from 27 away games — 0.96 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Torino come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Torino are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Udinese are on 1.13 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Defensively: Torino have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Torino
Blended
Udinese
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Torino and Udinese in coming into this match?
Torino have gone 20W 16D 18L in their last 54 games (1.41 PPG), while Udinese have gone 12W 23D 19L in their last 54 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Torino at home or Udinese away?
Torino's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Torino at home: 1.37 PPG; Udinese away: 0.96 PPG.
Have Torino or Udinese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Torino have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Udinese in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Udinese have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Torino's record when hosting Udinese specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Torino
2
Draws
3
Udinese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Torino and Udinese?
From 10 meetings on record, Torino have won 5, Udinese have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Torino and Udinese last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Udinese 2-0 Torino.
Who has won more matches between Torino and Udinese?
Torino have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Torino see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Udinese see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Torino 37%, Udinese 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 26% (Torino) and 44% (Udinese).
On the defensive side: Torino keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Torino have failed to score in 37% of games; Udinese in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Torino home games / Udinese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Torino play Udinese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Torino's recent matches and 44% of Udinese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Torino vs Udinese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 26% of Torino's recent games and 44% of Udinese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Torino and Udinese share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Torino and Udinese finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino, Regular Season - 17, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Torino 1.42 xG and Udinese 0.67 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Torino attack 0.89 / defence 0.78 against Udinese attack 0.76 / defence 1.15, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Torino 54% | Draw 28% | Udinese 17%, with Torino to win its most likely call at 54%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Torino 33%, Udinese 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Torino's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Udinese's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Torino 1.41 PPG, Udinese 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.