Bologna 1-1 Genoa – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Bologna at 62% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bologna vs Genoa encounter.

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Match Analysis

Bologna host Genoa at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara in Serie A (matchday 19). Kick-off is Friday 5 January 2024 at 19:45 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Bologna have gone 6W 2D 2L — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: D W W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

In front of their own supporters, Bologna have posted 7W 2D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Genoa — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Genoa's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

On current form, Bologna have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Bologna have won 1, Genoa 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 21 May 2022, ended Bologna 1–0 Genoa — a Bologna win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Bologna in-play and half-time data (last 56 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games).

Genoa in-play and half-time data (last 56 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 57% versus Genoa 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 48% | Genoa 39%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Bologna surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while Genoa have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.55 xG and Genoa 0.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 1.037 / defence 0.652 | Genoa attack 0.795 / defence 1.096. League average goals — home 1.363 / away 1.036. Genoa's attack rating of 0.795 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.54. Bologna have a tight defence (rating 0.652), which is pulling Genoa's projected output down. Data: built from Bologna's last 56 games and Genoa's last 18.

Result probabilities: Bologna 62% | Draw 26% | Genoa 12%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 1.62 | Draw 3.86 | Genoa 8.17. The model has a clear lean to Bologna (62%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 33% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Genoa's lower xG of 0.54 gives a real chance they fail to score.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Bologna at 62% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.08 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 65% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 67%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Bologna 30% (last 10 home games) | Genoa 50% (last 10 away games).

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