Napoli 0-0 Monza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Napoli at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Napoli vs Monza fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 18 as Napoli welcome Monza to Stadio Diego Armando Maradona. Kick-off is set for Friday 29 December 2023 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Napoli — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Napoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Napoli at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Monza stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Monza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Monza have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Napoli) versus 1.20 (Monza). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Napoli, 1 for Monza and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 May 2023, ended 0–2 with Monza winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Napoli trading profile (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Monza trading profile (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Napoli 46% versus Monza 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Napoli 54% | Monza 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Napoli 1.41 xG and Monza 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Napoli attack 0.995 / defence 1.210 | Monza attack 0.892 / defence 1.019. League average goals — home 1.395 / away 1.103. Data: 55 Napoli games / 55 Monza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Napoli 41% | Draw 28% | Monza 31%. Fair-value odds: Napoli 2.44 | Draw 3.57 | Monza 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Napoli as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Napoli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.60 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Napoli 60% | Monza 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Napoli vs Monza | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadio Diego Armando Maradona • Kick-off: Friday 29 Dec 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Napoli 41% | Draw 28% | Monza 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Napoli 1.41 / Monza 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Napoli attack 0.995 / def 1.210 | Monza attack 0.892 / def 1.019 | league avg home 1.395 / away 1.103 • Poisson stance: Napoli (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Napoli xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Monza xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Napoli vs Monza kick off?
Napoli vs Monza kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 29 December 2023 at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.
What was the final score in Napoli vs Monza?
Napoli 0 - 0 Monza.
Where is Napoli vs Monza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.
What competition is Napoli vs Monza part of?
Napoli vs Monza is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Napoli vs Monza?
Our statistical model gives Napoli a 41% chance of winning, Monza a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Napoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Napoli vs Monza?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Napoli and Monza will score (BTTS).
Will Napoli vs Monza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Napoli and Monza?
Record (2 meetings): Napoli 1W | Draws 0 | Monza 1W.
What form are Napoli and Monza in?
Napoli (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Monza (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Napoli's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Monza's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. The same calculation in reverse, Monza's attack versus Napoli's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Napoli Win
41%
2.42
28%
3.62
31%
3.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Napoli xG
Total xG
2.60
1.19
Monza xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
3.23
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
24%
4.11
Win to Nil
13%
7.94
8%
13.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 8.8 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.4 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.8 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Napoli vs Monza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Napoli and Monza expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Napoli and 1.19 for Monza, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Napoli vs Monza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 55 outings, Napoli have picked up 2.13 PPG on a 36W 9D 10L record — W-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Napoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Monza's form line: 19W 16D 20L from 55 games, 1.33 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-L. The sample for Monza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Napoli are the form team by 0.80 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Monza.
Venue Form
On home soil, Napoli have posted 2.04 PPG from 27 outings (17W 4D 6L).
On the road, Monza have gone 9W 7D 11L from 27 away games — 1.26 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Napoli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Napoli are averaging 1.91 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; Monza are on 1.16 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Defensively: Napoli have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Napoli
Blended
Monza
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Napoli and Monza in coming into this match?
Napoli have gone 36W 9D 10L in their last 55 games (2.13 PPG), while Monza have gone 19W 16D 20L in their last 55 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Napoli at home or Monza away?
Napoli's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Napoli at home: 2.04 PPG; Monza away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Napoli or Monza been keeping clean sheets recently?
Napoli have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Monza in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 April 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Napoli have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Aug 2022, when Napoli won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Napoli's record when hosting Monza specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Napoli
1
Draws
1
Monza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Napoli and Monza?
From 6 meetings on record, Napoli have won 4, Monza have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Napoli and Monza last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2025, when Monza 0-1 Napoli.
Who has won more matches between Napoli and Monza?
Napoli have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Napoli see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Monza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Napoli 48%, Monza 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Napoli) and 44% (Monza).
On the defensive side: Napoli keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Monza in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Napoli home games / Monza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Napoli play Monza?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Napoli's recent matches and 44% of Monza's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Napoli vs Monza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Napoli's recent games and 44% of Monza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Napoli and Monza tend to score early?
Napoli have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Monza in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Napoli's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Regular Season - 18, as Napoli and Monza drew 0-0 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Napoli 1.41 xG and Monza 1.19 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Napoli fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Monza landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Napoli attack 0.99 / defence 1.21 against Monza attack 0.89 / defence 1.02, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Napoli 41% | Draw 28% | Monza 31%, with Napoli to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Napoli 54%, Monza 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Napoli's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Monza's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Napoli arrived the stronger side — 2.13 PPG against 1.33. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Napoli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.93 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line. Monza (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.