AC Milan 0-0 Bologna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AC Milan at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AC Milan vs Bologna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
AC Milan host Bologna at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza in Serie A, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 4 April 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, AC Milan have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: D D W W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, AC Milan have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.50 lags behind their overall 2.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza this season.
Bologna — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: W D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Bologna's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
On current form, AC Milan have the edge — a 1.50 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 0.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, AC Milan have won 1, Bologna 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 6.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Oct 2021, ended 4–2 with AC Milan winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
AC Milan in-play tendencies (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games).
Bologna in-play tendencies (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AC Milan 59% versus Bologna 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AC Milan 52% | Bologna 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AC Milan 1.27 xG and Bologna 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AC Milan attack 0.907 / defence 0.903 | Bologna attack 0.694 / defence 1.307. League average goals — home 1.068 / away 1.252. Bologna bring a strong defensive rating of 1.307 — this is suppressing AC Milan's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 30 AC Milan games / 29 Bologna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AC Milan 47% | Draw 31% | Bologna 22%. Fair-value odds: AC Milan 2.13 | Draw 3.23 | Bologna 4.55. AC Milan hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AC Milan at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AC Milan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.05 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates are neutral: AC Milan 50% | Bologna 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AC Milan vs Bologna | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Meazza • Kick-off: Monday 4 Apr 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AC Milan 47% | Draw 31% | Bologna 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 40% | xG AC Milan 1.27 / Bologna 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: AC Milan attack 0.907 / def 0.903 | Bologna attack 0.694 / def 1.307 | league avg home 1.068 / away 1.252 • Poisson stance: AC Milan (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
AC Milan xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Bologna xG
40%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AC Milan vs Bologna kick off?
AC Milan vs Bologna kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 4 April 2022 at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza.
What was the final score in AC Milan vs Bologna?
AC Milan 0 - 0 Bologna.
Where is AC Milan vs Bologna being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza.
What competition is AC Milan vs Bologna part of?
AC Milan vs Bologna is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win AC Milan vs Bologna?
Our statistical model gives AC Milan a 47% chance of winning, Bologna a 22% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making AC Milan the favourite.
Will both teams score in AC Milan vs Bologna?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both AC Milan and Bologna will score (BTTS).
Will AC Milan vs Bologna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between AC Milan and Bologna?
Record (1 meetings): AC Milan 1W | Draws 0 | Bologna 0W.
What form are AC Milan and Bologna in?
AC Milan (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-D-W-W-W. Bologna (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from AC Milan's attack rating (0.91) and Bologna's defence rating (1.31), the model arrives at 1.27 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bologna's attack versus AC Milan's defence, projects 0.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.5%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AC Milan Win
47%
2.14
31%
3.20
22%
4.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.9%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
AC Milan xG
Total xG
2.05
0.78
Bologna xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
4.55
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.50
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
46%
2.19
28%
3.55
Win to Nil
21%
4.68
6%
16.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.9 | 10.1 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.3 | 12.8 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.3 | 8.1 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.4 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AC Milan vs Bologna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are AC Milan and Bologna expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for AC Milan and 0.78 for Bologna, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for AC Milan vs Bologna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
AC Milan's recent record stands at 19W 6D 4L from 29 games, a 2.17 PPG return, with D-D-W-W-W in the last five.
Bologna, meanwhile, have gone 9W 6D 14L across 29 games — 1.14 PPG, with W-D-D-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours AC Milan by 1.03 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Bologna heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, AC Milan have managed 8W 3D 3L from 14 games — 1.93 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bologna's away record stands at 3W 3D 8L across 14 trips, a 0.86 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AC Milan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
AC Milan are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Bologna are on 1.10 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Defensively: AC Milan have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 29 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AC Milan
Current Season
Bologna
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AC Milan and Bologna in coming into this match?
AC Milan have gone 19W 6D 4L in their last 29 games (2.17 PPG), while Bologna have gone 9W 6D 14L in their last 29 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AC Milan at home or Bologna away?
AC Milan's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AC Milan at home: 1.93 PPG; Bologna away: 0.86 PPG.
Have AC Milan or Bologna been keeping clean sheets recently?
AC Milan have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Bologna in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 3 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
AC Milan go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Feb 2026, when AC Milan won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
AC Milan's record when hosting Bologna specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
AC Milan
3
Draws
1
Bologna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AC Milan and Bologna?
From 10 meetings on record, AC Milan have won 6, Bologna have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did AC Milan and Bologna last play each other?
They last met on 3 February 2026, when Bologna 0-3 AC Milan.
Who has won more matches between AC Milan and Bologna?
AC Milan have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
AC Milan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Bologna see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AC Milan 43%, Bologna 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (AC Milan) and 64% (Bologna).
On the defensive side: AC Milan keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Bologna in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AC Milan home games / Bologna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AC Milan play Bologna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of AC Milan's recent matches and 57% of Bologna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AC Milan vs Bologna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of AC Milan's recent games and 64% of Bologna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AC Milan and Bologna tend to score early?
AC Milan have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Bologna in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at AC Milan's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Regular Season - 31, as AC Milan and Bologna drew 0-0 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AC Milan 1.27 xG and Bologna 0.78 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. AC Milan fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AC Milan attack 0.91 / defence 0.90 against Bologna attack 0.69 / defence 1.31, drawn from 30/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AC Milan 47% | Draw 31% | Bologna 22%, with AC Milan to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AC Milan 52%, Bologna 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AC Milan's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Bologna's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, AC Milan arrived the stronger side — 2.17 PPG against 1.14. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. AC Milan (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward. Bologna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.