Venezia 0-2 Sampdoria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sampdoria at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Venezia vs Sampdoria fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 30 as Venezia welcome Sampdoria to Stadio Pierluigi Penzo. Kick-off is set for Sunday 20 March 2022 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Venezia stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Venezia at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 home games — 0.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sampdoria — All Games: 2W 0D 8L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Sampdoria have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Venezia 0.50 PPG, Sampdoria 0.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Venezia, 0 for Sampdoria and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Dec 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Venezia trading profile (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Sampdoria trading profile (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Venezia 61% and Sampdoria 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Venezia 50% | Sampdoria 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Venezia 1.28 xG and Sampdoria 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Venezia attack 0.800 / defence 1.533 | Sampdoria attack 0.657 / defence 1.469. League average goals — home 1.090 / away 1.297. Sampdoria bring a strong defensive rating of 1.469 — this is suppressing Venezia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 28 Venezia games / 29 Sampdoria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Venezia 34% | Draw 31% | Sampdoria 35%. Fair-value odds: Venezia 2.94 | Draw 3.23 | Sampdoria 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sampdoria at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sampdoria offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.59 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Venezia 70% | Sampdoria 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Venezia vs Sampdoria | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stadio Pierluigi Penzo • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Mar 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Venezia 34% | Draw 31% | Sampdoria 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 55% | xG Venezia 1.28 / Sampdoria 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Venezia attack 0.800 / def 1.533 | Sampdoria attack 0.657 / def 1.469 | league avg home 1.090 / away 1.297 • Poisson stance: Sampdoria (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Venezia xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Sampdoria xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Venezia vs Sampdoria kick off?
Venezia vs Sampdoria kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 20 March 2022 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What was the final score in Venezia vs Sampdoria?
Venezia 0 - 2 Sampdoria.
Where is Venezia vs Sampdoria being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What competition is Venezia vs Sampdoria part of?
Venezia vs Sampdoria is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Venezia vs Sampdoria?
Our statistical model gives Venezia a 34% chance of winning, Sampdoria a 35% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Sampdoria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Venezia vs Sampdoria?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Venezia and Sampdoria will score (BTTS).
Will Venezia vs Sampdoria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Sampdoria?
Record (1 meetings): Venezia 0W | Draws 1 | Sampdoria 0W.
What form are Venezia and Sampdoria in?
Venezia (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. Sampdoria (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Venezia's attack rating (0.80) and Sampdoria's defence rating (1.47), the model arrives at 1.28 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sampdoria's attack versus Venezia's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 1-2 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sampdoria Win
34%
2.96
31%
3.20
35%
2.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Venezia xG
Total xG
2.59
1.31
Sampdoria xG
2.96
34%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
2.86
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
27%
3.69
28%
3.60
Win to Nil
9%
10.92
10%
10.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 9.8 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.6 | 8.2 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.1 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Venezia vs Sampdoria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Venezia and Sampdoria expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Venezia and 1.31 for Sampdoria, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Venezia vs Sampdoria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 28 outings, Venezia have picked up 0.79 PPG on a 5W 7D 16L record — W-D-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Sampdoria's form line: 7W 5D 16L from 28 games, 0.93 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Venezia on 0.79 PPG, Sampdoria on 0.93. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Venezia have posted 0.71 PPG from 14 outings (2W 4D 8L).
On the road, Sampdoria have gone 3W 2D 9L from 14 away games — 0.79 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Venezia are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; Sampdoria are on 1.32 scored and 1.79 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Venezia have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Sampdoria in 61%.
Last 28 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Venezia
Current Season
Sampdoria
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Venezia and Sampdoria in coming into this match?
Venezia have gone 5W 7D 16L in their last 28 games (0.79 PPG), while Sampdoria have gone 7W 5D 16L in their last 28 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Venezia at home or Sampdoria away?
Sampdoria's away record (0.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Venezia at home: 0.71 PPG; Sampdoria away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Venezia and Sampdoria runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie A, Serie B all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Venezia's record when hosting Sampdoria specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Venezia
2
Draws
1
Sampdoria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Sampdoria?
From 6 meetings on record, Venezia have won 3, Sampdoria have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Venezia and Sampdoria last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Sampdoria 0-0 Venezia.
Who has won more matches between Venezia and Sampdoria?
Venezia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Sampdoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Venezia 71%, Sampdoria 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Venezia) and 57% (Sampdoria).
On the defensive side: Sampdoria in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Venezia home games / Sampdoria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Venezia play Sampdoria?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Venezia's games and 43% of Sampdoria's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Venezia vs Sampdoria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Venezia's recent games and 57% of Sampdoria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Venezia and Sampdoria tend to score early?
Venezia have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Sampdoria in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sampdoria cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Venezia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sampdoria beat Venezia 0-2 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Regular Season - 30, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Venezia 1.28 xG and Sampdoria 1.31 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Venezia fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Venezia attack 0.80 / defence 1.53 against Sampdoria attack 0.66 / defence 1.47, drawn from 28/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Venezia 34% | Draw 31% | Sampdoria 35%, with Sampdoria to win its most likely call at 35%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Venezia 50%, Sampdoria 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Venezia's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sampdoria's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Venezia 0.79 PPG, Sampdoria 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sampdoria win broke the near-deadlock. Venezia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward. Sampdoria (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.64 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.