Spezia 2-2 Atalanta – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Atalanta at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Spezia vs Atalanta fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Atalanta make the trip to Stadio Alberto Picco to face Spezia in Serie A, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Wednesday 4 January 2023 at 13:30 UTC.
Form
Spezia (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Spezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Spezia's home record at Stadio Alberto Picco: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Atalanta have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Atalanta, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atalanta away from home this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 away games — 2.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.20 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Atalanta arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Spezia, 2 for Atalanta and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 8 May 2022, ended 1–3 with Atalanta winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Spezia — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Atalanta — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spezia 57% versus Atalanta 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spezia 60% | Atalanta 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spezia 1.17 xG and Atalanta 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spezia attack 0.989 / defence 1.169 | Atalanta attack 1.129 / defence 0.839. League average goals — home 1.407 / away 1.142. Data: 53 Spezia games / 53 Atalanta games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Spezia 28% | Draw 27% | Atalanta 44%. Fair-value odds: Spezia 3.57 | Draw 3.70 | Atalanta 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Atalanta are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Atalanta if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Spezia 80% | Atalanta 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spezia vs Atalanta | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Picco • Kick-off: Wednesday 4 Jan 2023, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spezia 28% | Draw 27% | Atalanta 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Spezia 1.17 / Atalanta 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Spezia attack 0.989 / def 1.169 | Atalanta attack 1.129 / def 0.839 | league avg home 1.407 / away 1.142 • Poisson stance: Atalanta (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Spezia xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Atalanta xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Spezia vs Atalanta kick off?
Spezia vs Atalanta kicked off at 13:30 on Wednesday 4 January 2023 at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What was the final score in Spezia vs Atalanta?
Spezia 2 - 2 Atalanta.
Where is Spezia vs Atalanta being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What competition is Spezia vs Atalanta part of?
Spezia vs Atalanta is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Spezia vs Atalanta?
Our statistical model gives Spezia a 28% chance of winning, Atalanta a 44% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Atalanta the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spezia vs Atalanta?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Spezia and Atalanta will score (BTTS).
Will Spezia vs Atalanta have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Atalanta?
Record (2 meetings): Spezia 0W | Draws 0 | Atalanta 2W.
What form are Spezia and Atalanta in?
Spezia (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-D-W. Atalanta (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Spezia's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Atalanta's defensive record (0.84x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.17. Flip it around — Atalanta's attack (1.13x) against Spezia's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.51.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 0-1 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atalanta Win
28%
3.51
27%
3.66
44%
2.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Spezia xG
Total xG
2.67
1.51
Atalanta xG
3.51
28%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
2.27
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
22%
4.51
31%
3.21
Win to Nil
6%
15.82
14%
7.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 10.4 | 7.8 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 12.1 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.1 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Spezia vs Atalanta?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Spezia and Atalanta expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Spezia and 1.51 for Atalanta, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Spezia vs Atalanta?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Spezia come into this having played 53 games, going 13W 10D 30L for 0.92 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-W. The sample for Spezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Atalanta sit at 1.62 PPG from 53 outings (24W 14D 15L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Atalanta is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Atalanta carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.70 PPG clear of Spezia — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Spezia's home form reads 7W 7D 12L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.08 PPG return.
Away from home, Atalanta have taken 2.12 points per game from 26 outings (17W 4D 5L). That's actually stronger than their 1.62 PPG overall record — Atalanta travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atalanta come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Spezia are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; Atalanta are on 1.64 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Atalanta in 60%.
Last 53 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spezia
Blended
Atalanta
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Spezia and Atalanta in coming into this match?
Spezia have gone 13W 10D 30L in their last 53 games (0.92 PPG), while Atalanta have gone 24W 14D 15L in their last 53 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spezia at home or Atalanta away?
Atalanta's away record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spezia at home: 1.08 PPG; Atalanta away: 2.12 PPG.
Have Spezia or Atalanta been keeping clean sheets recently?
Spezia have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Atalanta in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atalanta won 5-2 on 20 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Spezia have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Atalanta — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Spezia
1
Draws
3
Atalanta
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Atalanta?
From 4 meetings on record, Spezia have won 0, Atalanta have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Spezia and Atalanta last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2023, when Atalanta 3-2 Spezia.
Who has won more matches between Spezia and Atalanta?
Atalanta have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Spezia see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Atalanta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Spezia 65%, Atalanta 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Spezia) and 50% (Atalanta).
On the defensive side: Atalanta in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spezia home games / Atalanta away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Spezia play Atalanta?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Spezia's games and 50% of Atalanta's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Spezia vs Atalanta usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Spezia's recent games and 50% of Atalanta's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Spezia and Atalanta tend to score early?
Spezia have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Atalanta in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Spezia and Atalanta share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Spezia and Atalanta finished level at 2-2 at Stadio Alberto Picco, Regular Season - 16, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spezia 1.17 xG and Atalanta 1.51 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Spezia beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spezia attack 0.99 / defence 1.17 against Atalanta attack 1.13 / defence 0.84, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spezia 28% | Draw 27% | Atalanta 44%, with Atalanta to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spezia 60%, Atalanta 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spezia's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Atalanta's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Atalanta arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 0.92. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Atalanta (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.