Fiorentina 1-1 Monza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fiorentina at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fiorentina vs Monza fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Fiorentina host Monza at Stadio Artemio Franchi in Serie A, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 4 January 2023 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Fiorentina have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Fiorentina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fiorentina at Stadio Artemio Franchi this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Monza stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Monza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Monza's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Fiorentina at 1.30 PPG versus Monza's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
Fiorentina in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Monza in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fiorentina 53% versus Monza 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fiorentina 57% | Monza 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fiorentina 1.84 xG and Monza 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fiorentina attack 1.056 / defence 1.199 | Monza attack 0.772 / defence 1.231. League average goals — home 1.419 / away 1.131. Monza bring a strong defensive rating of 1.231 — this is suppressing Fiorentina's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 53 Fiorentina games / 15 Monza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fiorentina 55% | Draw 24% | Monza 20%. Fair-value odds: Fiorentina 1.82 | Draw 4.17 | Monza 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Fiorentina (55%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fiorentina are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.89 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Fiorentina 40% | Monza 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fiorentina vs Monza | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadio Artemio Franchi • Kick-off: Wednesday 4 Jan 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fiorentina 55% | Draw 24% | Monza 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 55% | xG Fiorentina 1.84 / Monza 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Fiorentina attack 1.056 / def 1.199 | Monza attack 0.772 / def 1.231 | league avg home 1.419 / away 1.131 • Poisson stance: Fiorentina (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Fiorentina xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Monza xG
55%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fiorentina vs Monza kick off?
Fiorentina vs Monza kicked off at 17:30 on Wednesday 4 January 2023 at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What was the final score in Fiorentina vs Monza?
Fiorentina 1 - 1 Monza.
Where is Fiorentina vs Monza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What competition is Fiorentina vs Monza part of?
Fiorentina vs Monza is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Fiorentina vs Monza?
Our statistical model gives Fiorentina a 55% chance of winning, Monza a 20% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Fiorentina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fiorentina vs Monza?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Fiorentina and Monza will score (BTTS).
Will Fiorentina vs Monza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Monza?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Fiorentina and Monza in?
Fiorentina (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Monza (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Fiorentina's attack rating (1.06) and Monza's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 1.84 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Monza's attack versus Fiorentina's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fiorentina Win
55%
1.81
24%
4.11
20%
4.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
Fiorentina xG
Total xG
2.89
1.05
Monza xG
1.81
55%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
4.88
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
16%
6.32
Win to Nil
19%
5.17
3%
30.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 10.7 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fiorentina vs Monza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Fiorentina and Monza expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Fiorentina and 1.05 for Monza, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Fiorentina vs Monza?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Fiorentina's recent record stands at 24W 9D 20L from 53 games, a 1.53 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Fiorentina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Monza, meanwhile, have gone 27W 8D 18L across 53 games — 1.68 PPG, with L-L-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Monza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fiorentina on 1.53 PPG, Monza on 1.68. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Fiorentina have managed 16W 4D 6L from 26 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.53 PPG overall — Fiorentina are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Monza's away record stands at 9W 5D 12L across 26 trips, a 1.23 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.68 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Monza's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fiorentina come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Fiorentina are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Monza are on 1.57 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fiorentina
Blended
Monza
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fiorentina and Monza in coming into this match?
Fiorentina have gone 24W 9D 20L in their last 53 games (1.53 PPG), while Monza have gone 27W 8D 18L in their last 53 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fiorentina at home or Monza away?
Fiorentina's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fiorentina at home: 2.00 PPG; Monza away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Fiorentina or Monza been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fiorentina have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Monza in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fiorentina and Monza runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 January 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Fiorentina's record when hosting Monza specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Fiorentina
2
Draws
2
Monza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Monza?
From 6 meetings on record, Fiorentina have won 2, Monza have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fiorentina and Monza last play each other?
They last met on 13 January 2025, when Monza 2-1 Fiorentina.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Monza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fiorentina 42%, Monza 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Fiorentina) and 54% (Monza). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fiorentina keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Monza in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fiorentina home games / Monza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fiorentina play Monza?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Fiorentina's recent matches and 50% of Monza's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fiorentina vs Monza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Fiorentina's matches and 54% of Monza's.
Do Fiorentina and Monza tend to score early?
Fiorentina have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Monza in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fiorentina and Monza share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Regular Season - 16, as Fiorentina and Monza drew 1-1 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fiorentina 1.84 xG and Monza 1.05 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Fiorentina fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fiorentina attack 1.06 / defence 1.20 against Monza attack 0.77 / defence 1.23, drawn from 53/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fiorentina 55% | Draw 24% | Monza 20%, with Fiorentina to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fiorentina 57%, Monza 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fiorentina's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Monza's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fiorentina 1.53 PPG, Monza 1.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Fiorentina (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.