Bologna 1-2 Atalanta – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bologna at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bologna vs Atalanta fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Atalanta travel to Stadio Renato Dall'Ara to take on Bologna. The game is scheduled for Monday 9 January 2023, 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Bologna have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Bologna have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Bologna are significantly better at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara than their overall form suggests.
Atalanta — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Atalanta, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atalanta's form when playing away from home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.00 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Bologna 1.30 PPG, Atalanta 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Bologna have won 0, Atalanta 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 20 Mar 2022, ended 0–1 with Atalanta winning.
With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Bologna trading profile (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Atalanta trading profile (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 52% versus Atalanta 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 52% | Atalanta 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.36 xG and Atalanta 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 1.062 / defence 0.893 | Atalanta attack 1.202 / defence 0.932. League average goals — home 1.372 / away 1.104. Atalanta have an above-average attack strength of 1.202 — the away xG of 1.19 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 54 Bologna games / 54 Atalanta games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bologna 39% | Draw 30% | Atalanta 31%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 2.56 | Draw 3.33 | Atalanta 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bologna as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bologna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.54 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Bologna 70% | Atalanta 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bologna vs Atalanta | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadio Renato Dall'Ara • Kick-off: Monday 9 Jan 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bologna 39% | Draw 30% | Atalanta 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 53% | xG Bologna 1.36 / Atalanta 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Bologna attack 1.062 / def 0.893 | Atalanta attack 1.202 / def 0.932 | league avg home 1.372 / away 1.104 • Poisson stance: Bologna (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Bologna xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Atalanta xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bologna vs Atalanta kick off?
Bologna vs Atalanta kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 9 January 2023 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What was the final score in Bologna vs Atalanta?
Bologna 1 - 2 Atalanta.
Where is Bologna vs Atalanta being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What competition is Bologna vs Atalanta part of?
Bologna vs Atalanta is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bologna vs Atalanta?
Our statistical model gives Bologna a 39% chance of winning, Atalanta a 31% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs Atalanta?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Bologna and Atalanta will score (BTTS).
Will Bologna vs Atalanta have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Atalanta?
Record (2 meetings): Bologna 0W | Draws 1 | Atalanta 1W.
What form are Bologna and Atalanta in?
Bologna (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Atalanta (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Bologna's attack at 1.06x the league average against Atalanta's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Atalanta's attack versus Bologna's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
39%
2.55
30%
3.37
31%
3.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Bologna xG
Total xG
2.54
1.19
Atalanta xG
2.55
39%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
3.22
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
26%
3.89
Win to Nil
12%
8.33
8%
12.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 9.3 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.7 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.6 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bologna vs Atalanta?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Bologna and Atalanta expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Bologna and 1.19 for Atalanta, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Bologna vs Atalanta?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bologna come into this having played 54 games, going 17W 14D 23L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-L. The sample for Bologna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Atalanta sit at 1.61 PPG from 54 outings (24W 15D 15L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Atalanta is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Atalanta carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.41 PPG clear of Bologna — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Bologna's home form reads 12W 7D 8L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.59 PPG return.
Away from home, Atalanta have taken 2.07 points per game from 27 outings (17W 5D 5L). That's actually stronger than their 1.61 PPG overall record — Atalanta travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atalanta come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bologna are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Atalanta are on 1.65 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Atalanta in 61%.
Last 54 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bologna
Blended
Atalanta
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bologna and Atalanta in coming into this match?
Bologna have gone 17W 14D 23L in their last 54 games (1.20 PPG), while Atalanta have gone 24W 15D 15L in their last 54 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bologna at home or Atalanta away?
Atalanta's away record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bologna at home: 1.59 PPG; Atalanta away: 2.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Bologna's record when hosting Atalanta specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Bologna
2
Draws
4
Atalanta
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Atalanta?
From 10 meetings on record, Bologna have won 4, Atalanta have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bologna and Atalanta last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Atalanta 0-1 Bologna.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bologna see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Atalanta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bologna 48%, Atalanta 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Bologna) and 52% (Atalanta).
On the defensive side: Bologna keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Atalanta in 37%; Bologna have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bologna home games / Atalanta away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bologna play Atalanta?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Bologna's recent matches and 52% of Atalanta's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bologna vs Atalanta usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Bologna's recent games and 52% of Atalanta's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bologna and Atalanta tend to score early?
Bologna have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Atalanta in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Atalanta defy the odds to beat Bologna 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atalanta beat Bologna 1-2 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 17, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 1.36 xG and Atalanta 1.19 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Atalanta outscored their 1.19 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 1.06 / defence 0.89 against Atalanta attack 1.20 / defence 0.93, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bologna 39% | Draw 30% | Atalanta 31%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Atalanta win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 52%, Atalanta 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bologna's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Atalanta's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Atalanta arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Bologna (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.