Cremonese 0-1 Juventus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Juventus at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cremonese vs Juventus encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cremonese and Juventus meet at Stadio Giovanni Zini in Serie A, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 4 January 2023 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cremonese have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 0W 6D 4L. Last five: L D D D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Cremonese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cremonese have posted 2W 3D 5L at Stadio Giovanni Zini — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Juventus (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Juventus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Juventus's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Juventus are the stronger side — 1.60 PPG clear of the hosts (2.20 vs 0.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading
Cremonese half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Juventus half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cremonese 57% versus Juventus 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cremonese 49% | Juventus 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 0.58 xG and Juventus 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 0.552 / defence 1.155 | Juventus attack 0.826 / defence 0.746. League average goals — home 1.419 / away 1.131. Cremonese's attack strength of 0.552 is below the league average — the 0.58 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Juventus's defence strength of 0.746 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 15 Cremonese games / 53 Juventus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cremonese 19% | Draw 35% | Juventus 46%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 5.26 | Draw 2.86 | Juventus 2.17. Juventus hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (35%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 23% | BTTS probability 30% | Total xG 1.67. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 77% probability — total xG of 1.67 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 70% — Cremonese's lower xG of 0.58 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 30%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Juventus at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Juventus if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.67 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 23% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 30% on No. Form rates corroborate: Cremonese 40% | Juventus 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cremonese vs Juventus | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini • Kick-off: Wednesday 4 Jan 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cremonese 19% | Draw 35% | Juventus 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 23% | BTTS 30% | xG Cremonese 0.58 / Juventus 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Cremonese attack 0.552 / def 1.155 | Juventus attack 0.826 / def 0.746 | league avg home 1.419 / away 1.131 • Poisson stance: Juventus (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.58
Cremonese xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Juventus xG
30%
BTTS
50%
Over 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cremonese vs Juventus kick off?
Cremonese vs Juventus kicked off at 17:30 on Wednesday 4 January 2023 at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What was the final score in Cremonese vs Juventus?
Cremonese 0 - 1 Juventus.
Where is Cremonese vs Juventus being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What competition is Cremonese vs Juventus part of?
Cremonese vs Juventus is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cremonese vs Juventus?
Our statistical model gives Cremonese a 19% chance of winning, Juventus a 46% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Juventus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cremonese vs Juventus?
Our model estimates a 30% probability that both Cremonese and Juventus will score (BTTS).
Will Cremonese vs Juventus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 23%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Juventus?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cremonese and Juventus in?
Cremonese (all comps): 0W-6D-4L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-D-D-L. Juventus (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Cremonese's attack at 0.55x the league average against Juventus's defence at 0.75x — combine the two and it projects 0.58 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Juventus's attack (0.83x) against Cremonese's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 15/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 20.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (18.9%), 1-1 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 53% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juventus Win
19%
5.30
35%
2.88
46%
2.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
20.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
18.9%
Draw
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.58
Cremonese xG
Total xG
1.67
1.08
Juventus xG
5.30
19%
Home win
2.88
35%
Draw
2.15
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
50%
Over 1.5
2.00
50%
Under 1.5
2.00
23%
Over 2.5
4.35
77%
Under 2.5
1.30
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
30%
BTTS Yes
3.32
70%
BTTS No
1.43
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
56%
1.79
Win to Nil
6%
15.60
26%
3.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.9 | 20.4 | 11.0 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.0 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cremonese vs Juventus?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.5%.
How many goals are Cremonese and Juventus expected to score?
The model projects 0.58 expected goals for Cremonese and 1.08 for Juventus, a combined total of 1.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Cremonese vs Juventus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 53 outings, Cremonese have picked up 1.43 PPG on a 20W 16D 17L record — L-D-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Cremonese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Juventus's form line: 29W 14D 10L from 53 games, 1.91 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Juventus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Juventus are the form team by 0.48 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cremonese.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Cremonese have posted 1.62 PPG from 26 outings (11W 9D 6L).
On the road, Juventus have gone 13W 7D 6L from 26 away games — 1.77 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Cremonese are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Juventus are on 1.53 scored and 0.83 conceded.
Defensively: Juventus in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cremonese
Blended
Juventus
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cremonese and Juventus in coming into this match?
Cremonese have gone 20W 16D 17L in their last 53 games (1.43 PPG), while Juventus have gone 29W 14D 10L in their last 53 (1.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cremonese at home or Juventus away?
Juventus's away record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cremonese at home: 1.62 PPG; Juventus away: 1.77 PPG.
Have Cremonese or Juventus been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cremonese have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Juventus in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 12 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Juventus have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Juventus won 5-0 on 12 Jan 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cremonese have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Juventus — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Cremonese
0
Draws
4
Juventus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Juventus?
From 4 meetings on record, Cremonese have won 0, Juventus have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cremonese and Juventus last play each other?
They last met on 12 January 2026, when Juventus 5-0 Cremonese.
Who has won more matches between Cremonese and Juventus?
Juventus have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Juventus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cremonese 54%, Juventus 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Cremonese) and 38% (Juventus).
On the defensive side: Cremonese keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Juventus in 35%; Cremonese have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cremonese home games / Juventus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cremonese play Juventus?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Cremonese's recent matches and 54% of Juventus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cremonese vs Juventus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Cremonese's recent games and 38% of Juventus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cremonese and Juventus tend to score early?
Cremonese have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Juventus in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Juventus edge out Cremonese 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Juventus beat Cremonese 0-1 at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Regular Season - 16, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cremonese 0.58 xG and Juventus 1.08 xG, a combined 1.67. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cremonese attack 0.55 / defence 1.16 against Juventus attack 0.83 / defence 0.75, drawn from 15/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cremonese 19% | Draw 35% | Juventus 46%, with Juventus to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 23%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 50% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 30% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cremonese 49%, Juventus 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cremonese's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Juventus's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Juventus arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.43. That form edge translated into the three points. Cremonese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward. Juventus (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.