AS Roma 0-1 Lazio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lazio at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this AS Roma vs Lazio fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Lazio make the trip to Stadio Olimpico to face AS Roma in Serie A, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Sunday 6 November 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
AS Roma's overall Serie A record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for AS Roma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, AS Roma have posted 6W 2D 2L at Stadio Olimpico — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Olimpico. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Lazio have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W D W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Lazio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lazio's form when playing away from home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.90 vs 2.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — AS Roma lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 20 Mar 2022, ended 3–0 with AS Roma winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
AS Roma goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Lazio goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Roma 48% versus Lazio 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Roma 50% | Lazio 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Roma 0.86 xG and Lazio 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Roma attack 0.921 / defence 0.785 | Lazio attack 1.420 / defence 0.689. League average goals — home 1.360 / away 1.190. Lazio's defence strength of 0.689 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Lazio have an above-average attack strength of 1.420 — the away xG of 1.33 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. AS Roma's defence rating of 0.785 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 50 AS Roma games / 50 Lazio games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AS Roma 23% | Draw 30% | Lazio 47%. Fair-value odds: AS Roma 4.35 | Draw 3.33 | Lazio 2.13. Lazio hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Lazio as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lazio if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.19 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: AS Roma 30% | Lazio 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Roma vs Lazio | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Nov 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Roma 23% | Draw 30% | Lazio 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 43% | xG AS Roma 0.86 / Lazio 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: AS Roma attack 0.921 / def 0.785 | Lazio attack 1.420 / def 0.689 | league avg home 1.360 / away 1.190 • Poisson stance: Lazio (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
AS Roma xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Lazio xG
43%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AS Roma vs Lazio kick off?
AS Roma vs Lazio kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 6 November 2022 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in AS Roma vs Lazio?
AS Roma 0 - 1 Lazio.
Where is AS Roma vs Lazio being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is AS Roma vs Lazio part of?
AS Roma vs Lazio is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win AS Roma vs Lazio?
Our statistical model gives AS Roma a 23% chance of winning, Lazio a 47% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Lazio the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Roma vs Lazio?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both AS Roma and Lazio will score (BTTS).
Will AS Roma vs Lazio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Lazio?
Record (2 meetings): AS Roma 1W | Draws 0 | Lazio 1W.
What form are AS Roma and Lazio in?
AS Roma (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Lazio (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from AS Roma's attack rating (0.92) and Lazio's defence rating (0.69), the model arrives at 0.86 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Lazio's attack (1.42x) against AS Roma's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.2%), 0-0 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lazio Win
23%
4.28
30%
3.32
47%
2.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
AS Roma xG
Total xG
2.19
1.33
Lazio xG
4.28
23%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
2.15
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.30
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
27%
3.77
42%
2.37
Win to Nil
6%
16.12
20%
5.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 14.9 | 9.8 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.8 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 5.5 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Roma vs Lazio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are AS Roma and Lazio expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for AS Roma and 1.33 for Lazio, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Roma vs Lazio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
AS Roma's recent record stands at 26W 10D 14L from 50 games, a 1.76 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for AS Roma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lazio, meanwhile, have gone 25W 13D 12L across 50 games — 1.76 PPG, with W-W-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for Lazio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.76 PPG for AS Roma against 1.76 for Lazio. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, AS Roma have managed 13W 6D 5L from 24 games — 1.88 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lazio's away record stands at 11W 6D 7L across 24 trips, a 1.62 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
AS Roma are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Lazio are on 2.02 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Defensively: AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Roma
Blended
Lazio
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AS Roma and Lazio in coming into this match?
AS Roma have gone 26W 10D 14L in their last 50 games (1.76 PPG), while Lazio have gone 25W 13D 12L in their last 50 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Roma at home or Lazio away?
AS Roma's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Roma at home: 1.88 PPG; Lazio away: 1.62 PPG.
Have AS Roma or Lazio been keeping clean sheets recently?
AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Lazio in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: AS Roma have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AS Roma won 3-0 on 20 Mar 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AS Roma have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Lazio — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
AS Roma
2
Draws
3
Lazio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Lazio?
From 10 meetings on record, AS Roma have won 5, Lazio have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AS Roma and Lazio last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when AS Roma 2-0 Lazio.
Who has won more matches between AS Roma and Lazio?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Lazio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Roma 38%, Lazio 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (AS Roma) and 75% (Lazio). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 12% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AS Roma keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Roma home games / Lazio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AS Roma play Lazio?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of AS Roma's recent matches and 54% of Lazio's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AS Roma vs Lazio usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 42% of AS Roma's matches and 75% of Lazio's.
Do AS Roma and Lazio tend to score early?
AS Roma have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Lazio in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lazio edge out AS Roma 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lazio beat AS Roma 0-1 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 13, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Roma 0.86 xG and Lazio 1.33 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. AS Roma fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Roma attack 0.92 / defence 0.79 against Lazio attack 1.42 / defence 0.69, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Roma 23% | Draw 30% | Lazio 47%, with Lazio to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Roma 50%, Lazio 72%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Roma's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Lazio's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AS Roma 1.76 PPG, Lazio 1.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lazio win broke the near-deadlock. AS Roma (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward. Lazio (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.92 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.