Hellas Verona 0-1 Juventus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Juventus at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hellas Verona vs Juventus encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Hellas Verona and Juventus meet at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi in Serie A, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 10 November 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Hellas Verona's overall Serie A record this term: 1W 1D 8L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hellas Verona, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Hellas Verona have posted 2W 1D 7L at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Juventus have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Juventus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Juventus's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Juventus arrive in superior form — a 1.60 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 0.40) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Hellas Verona, 1 for Juventus and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Feb 2022, ended 0–2 with Juventus winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Hellas Verona half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Juventus half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hellas Verona 74% and Juventus 47% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hellas Verona 63% | Juventus 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hellas Verona 1.02 xG and Juventus 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hellas Verona attack 0.965 / defence 1.406 | Juventus attack 0.787 / defence 0.764. League average goals — home 1.385 / away 1.132. Juventus's defence strength of 0.764 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 51 Hellas Verona games / 51 Juventus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hellas Verona 29% | Draw 31% | Juventus 40%. Fair-value odds: Hellas Verona 3.45 | Draw 3.23 | Juventus 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Juventus are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Juventus if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.27 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: Hellas Verona 70% | Juventus 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hellas Verona vs Juventus | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi • Kick-off: Thursday 10 Nov 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hellas Verona 29% | Draw 31% | Juventus 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG Hellas Verona 1.02 / Juventus 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Hellas Verona attack 0.965 / def 1.406 | Juventus attack 0.787 / def 0.764 | league avg home 1.385 / away 1.132 • Poisson stance: Juventus (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Hellas Verona xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Juventus xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hellas Verona vs Juventus kick off?
Hellas Verona vs Juventus kicked off at 17:30 on Thursday 10 November 2022 at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi.
What was the final score in Hellas Verona vs Juventus?
Hellas Verona 0 - 1 Juventus.
Where is Hellas Verona vs Juventus being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi.
What competition is Hellas Verona vs Juventus part of?
Hellas Verona vs Juventus is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Hellas Verona vs Juventus?
Our statistical model gives Hellas Verona a 29% chance of winning, Juventus a 40% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Juventus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hellas Verona vs Juventus?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Hellas Verona and Juventus will score (BTTS).
Will Hellas Verona vs Juventus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Juventus?
Record (2 meetings): Hellas Verona 1W | Draws 0 | Juventus 1W.
What form are Hellas Verona and Juventus in?
Hellas Verona (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Juventus (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Hellas Verona's attack rating (0.96) and Juventus's defence rating (0.76), the model arrives at 1.02 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Juventus's attack (0.79x) against Hellas Verona's defence (1.41x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 0-1 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juventus Win
29%
3.49
31%
3.20
40%
2.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Hellas Verona xG
Total xG
2.27
1.25
Juventus xG
3.49
29%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
2.49
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
36%
2.78
Win to Nil
8%
12.22
14%
6.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 12.9 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 13.2 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 6.7 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hellas Verona vs Juventus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Hellas Verona and Juventus expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Hellas Verona and 1.25 for Juventus, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Hellas Verona vs Juventus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 51 outings, Hellas Verona have picked up 1.14 PPG on a 15W 13D 23L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Hellas Verona is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Juventus's form line: 27W 14D 10L from 51 games, 1.86 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-W. The sample for Juventus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Juventus are the form team by 0.72 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Hellas Verona.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Hellas Verona have posted 1.32 PPG from 25 outings (10W 3D 12L).
On the road, Juventus have gone 12W 7D 6L from 25 away games — 1.72 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Hellas Verona are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Juventus are on 1.51 scored and 0.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hellas Verona have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games.
Defensively: Juventus in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hellas Verona
Blended
Juventus
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hellas Verona and Juventus in coming into this match?
Hellas Verona have gone 15W 13D 23L in their last 51 games (1.14 PPG), while Juventus have gone 27W 14D 10L in their last 51 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hellas Verona at home or Juventus away?
Juventus's away record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hellas Verona at home: 1.32 PPG; Juventus away: 1.72 PPG.
Have Hellas Verona or Juventus been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hellas Verona have kept a clean sheet in 8% of their recent games, Juventus in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 3 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Juventus won 0-3 on 26 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hellas Verona have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Juventus — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Hellas Verona
3
Draws
6
Juventus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Juventus?
From 10 meetings on record, Hellas Verona have won 1, Juventus have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hellas Verona and Juventus last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Juventus 1-1 Hellas Verona.
Who has won more matches between Hellas Verona and Juventus?
Juventus have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Juventus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 76% for Hellas Verona, 56% for Juventus — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 76% (Hellas Verona) and 40% (Juventus). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Juventus in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hellas Verona home games / Juventus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hellas Verona play Juventus?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 76% of Hellas Verona's games and 56% of Juventus's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hellas Verona vs Juventus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of Hellas Verona's matches and 40% of Juventus's.
Do Hellas Verona and Juventus tend to score early?
Hellas Verona have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Juventus in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Juventus edge out Hellas Verona 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Juventus beat Hellas Verona 0-1 at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi, Regular Season - 14, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hellas Verona 1.02 xG and Juventus 1.25 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Hellas Verona fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hellas Verona attack 0.96 / defence 1.41 against Juventus attack 0.79 / defence 0.76, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hellas Verona 29% | Draw 31% | Juventus 40%, with Juventus to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hellas Verona 63%, Juventus 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hellas Verona's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did not.
Juventus's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Juventus arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.14. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Hellas Verona (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.64 scoring average — below par going forward. Juventus (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.