Fiorentina 2-1 Salernitana – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Fiorentina at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fiorentina vs Salernitana fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Artemio Franchi plays host to Fiorentina versus Salernitana in Serie A, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Wednesday 9 November 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Fiorentina (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Fiorentina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fiorentina's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Stadio Artemio Franchi this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Artemio Franchi. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Fiorentina are significantly better at Stadio Artemio Franchi than their overall form suggests.
Salernitana's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Salernitana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Salernitana away from home this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Fiorentina against 1.30 for Salernitana. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Fiorentina 1W, Salernitana 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 24 Apr 2022, ended 1–2 with Salernitana winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Fiorentina half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Salernitana half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fiorentina 51% versus Salernitana 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fiorentina 55% | Salernitana 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fiorentina 1.68 xG and Salernitana 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fiorentina attack 1.099 / defence 1.265 | Salernitana attack 1.030 / defence 1.134. League average goals — home 1.349 / away 1.142. Data: 51 Fiorentina games / 51 Salernitana games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fiorentina 41% | Draw 26% | Salernitana 33%. Fair-value odds: Fiorentina 2.44 | Draw 3.85 | Salernitana 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.68 / 1.49) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fiorentina at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fiorentina if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.17 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Fiorentina 30% | Salernitana 60%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fiorentina vs Salernitana | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadio Artemio Franchi • Kick-off: Wednesday 9 Nov 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fiorentina 41% | Draw 26% | Salernitana 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 64% | xG Fiorentina 1.68 / Salernitana 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Fiorentina attack 1.099 / def 1.265 | Salernitana attack 1.030 / def 1.134 | league avg home 1.349 / away 1.142 • Poisson stance: Fiorentina (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Fiorentina xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Salernitana xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fiorentina vs Salernitana kick off?
Fiorentina vs Salernitana kicked off at 19:45 on Wednesday 9 November 2022 at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What was the final score in Fiorentina vs Salernitana?
Fiorentina 2 - 1 Salernitana.
Where is Fiorentina vs Salernitana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What competition is Fiorentina vs Salernitana part of?
Fiorentina vs Salernitana is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Fiorentina vs Salernitana?
Our statistical model gives Fiorentina a 41% chance of winning, Salernitana a 33% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Fiorentina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fiorentina vs Salernitana?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Fiorentina and Salernitana will score (BTTS).
Will Fiorentina vs Salernitana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Salernitana?
Record (2 meetings): Fiorentina 1W | Draws 0 | Salernitana 1W.
What form are Fiorentina and Salernitana in?
Fiorentina (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-W-W. Salernitana (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Fiorentina's attack rating (1.10) and Salernitana's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.68 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Salernitana's attack (1.03x) against Fiorentina's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.49.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fiorentina Win
41%
2.42
26%
3.88
33%
3.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Fiorentina xG
Total xG
3.17
1.49
Salernitana xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
3.03
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.79
Clean Sheet
23%
4.43
19%
5.37
Win to Nil
9%
10.73
6%
16.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 6.3 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 10.5 | 7.8 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.8 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 5.0 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fiorentina vs Salernitana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Fiorentina and Salernitana expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Fiorentina and 1.49 for Salernitana, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Fiorentina vs Salernitana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Fiorentina come into this having played 51 games, going 23W 9D 19L for 1.53 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-W. The sample for Fiorentina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Salernitana sit at 0.94 PPG from 51 outings (11W 15D 25L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Salernitana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fiorentina carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.59 PPG clear of Salernitana — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Fiorentina's home form reads 15W 4D 6L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.96 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.53 PPG overall — Fiorentina are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Salernitana have taken 0.88 points per game from 25 outings (5W 7D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fiorentina come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Fiorentina are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Salernitana are on 1.00 scored and 1.90 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fiorentina
Blended
Salernitana
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fiorentina and Salernitana in coming into this match?
Fiorentina have gone 23W 9D 19L in their last 51 games (1.53 PPG), while Salernitana have gone 11W 15D 25L in their last 51 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fiorentina at home or Salernitana away?
Fiorentina's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fiorentina at home: 1.96 PPG; Salernitana away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Fiorentina go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fiorentina won 4-0 on 11 Dec 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fiorentina have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Salernitana — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Fiorentina
1
Draws
1
Salernitana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Salernitana?
From 6 meetings on record, Fiorentina have won 4, Salernitana have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fiorentina and Salernitana last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2024, when Salernitana 0-2 Fiorentina.
Who has won more matches between Fiorentina and Salernitana?
Fiorentina have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Salernitana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fiorentina 40%, Salernitana 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Fiorentina) and 56% (Salernitana). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fiorentina keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Salernitana in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fiorentina home games / Salernitana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fiorentina play Salernitana?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Fiorentina's recent matches and 56% of Salernitana's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fiorentina vs Salernitana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Fiorentina's matches and 56% of Salernitana's.
Do Fiorentina and Salernitana tend to score early?
Fiorentina have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Salernitana in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fiorentina edge out Salernitana 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fiorentina beat Salernitana 2-1 at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Regular Season - 14, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fiorentina 1.68 xG and Salernitana 1.49 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fiorentina attack 1.10 / defence 1.26 against Salernitana attack 1.03 / defence 1.13, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fiorentina 41% | Draw 26% | Salernitana 33%, with Fiorentina to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fiorentina 55%, Salernitana 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fiorentina's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Salernitana's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Fiorentina arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 0.94. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.