Juventus 2-0 Genoa – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Juventus at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Juventus vs Genoa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Juventus host Genoa at Allianz Stadium in Serie A, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 5 December 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Juventus stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Juventus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Juventus's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 3L across 7 games at Allianz Stadium this term (1.43 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Across all Serie A games this season, Genoa have recorded 0W 6D 4L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Genoa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Genoa's away record: 1W 4D 3L from 8 road trips in Serie A this season (0.88 PPG). Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Juventus have the edge — a 1.30 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 0.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Profile
Juventus in-play tendencies (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games).
Genoa in-play tendencies (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juventus 53% versus Genoa 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juventus 40% | Genoa 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juventus 1.21 xG and Genoa 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juventus attack 0.739 / defence 0.873 | Genoa attack 0.750 / defence 1.304. League average goals — home 1.254 / away 1.464. Juventus's attack strength of 0.739 is below the league average — the 1.21 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Genoa bring a strong defensive rating of 1.304 — this is suppressing Juventus's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 15 Juventus games / 15 Genoa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juventus 42% | Draw 29% | Genoa 29%. Fair-value odds: Juventus 2.38 | Draw 3.45 | Genoa 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Juventus are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Juventus offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.17 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates are neutral: Juventus 43% | Genoa 62%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juventus vs Genoa | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Allianz Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Dec 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juventus 42% | Draw 29% | Genoa 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 43% | xG Juventus 1.21 / Genoa 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Juventus attack 0.739 / def 0.873 | Genoa attack 0.750 / def 1.304 | league avg home 1.254 / away 1.464 • Poisson stance: Juventus (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Juventus xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Genoa xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juventus vs Genoa kick off?
Juventus vs Genoa kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 5 December 2021 at Allianz Stadium.
What was the final score in Juventus vs Genoa?
Juventus 2 - 0 Genoa.
Where is Juventus vs Genoa being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Stadium.
What competition is Juventus vs Genoa part of?
Juventus vs Genoa is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Juventus vs Genoa?
Our statistical model gives Juventus a 42% chance of winning, Genoa a 29% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Juventus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juventus vs Genoa?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Juventus and Genoa will score (BTTS).
Will Juventus vs Genoa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juventus and Genoa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Juventus and Genoa in?
Juventus (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. Genoa (all comps): 0W-6D-4L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Juventus's attack rating (0.74) and Genoa's defence rating (1.30), the model arrives at 1.21 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Genoa's attack versus Juventus's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 1-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juventus Win
42%
2.40
29%
3.44
29%
3.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Juventus xG
Total xG
2.17
0.96
Genoa xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
3.43
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
30%
3.35
Win to Nil
16%
6.25
9%
11.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 11.0 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.3 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.0 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juventus vs Genoa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Juventus and Genoa expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Juventus and 0.96 for Genoa, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Juventus vs Genoa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Juventus's recent record stands at 7W 3D 5L from 15 games, a 1.60 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Juventus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Genoa, meanwhile, have gone 1W 7D 7L across 15 games — 0.67 PPG, with D-D-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Genoa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Juventus by 0.93 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Genoa heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Juventus have managed 3W 1D 3L from 7 games — 1.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Genoa's away record stands at 1W 4D 2L across 7 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Juventus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Juventus are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Genoa are on 1.13 scored and 1.93 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Genoa in 60%.
Last 15 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juventus
Blended
Genoa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juventus and Genoa in coming into this match?
Juventus have gone 7W 3D 5L in their last 15 games (1.60 PPG), while Genoa have gone 1W 7D 7L in their last 15 (0.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juventus at home or Genoa away?
Juventus's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juventus at home: 1.43 PPG; Genoa away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Juventus or Genoa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Juventus have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Genoa in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Juventus go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Sep 2024, when Juventus won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Juventus's record when hosting Genoa specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Juventus
2
Draws
1
Genoa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juventus and Genoa?
From 8 meetings on record, Juventus have won 5, Genoa have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Juventus and Genoa last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Juventus 2-0 Genoa.
Who has won more matches between Juventus and Genoa?
Juventus have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Juventus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Genoa see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juventus 43%, Genoa 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Juventus) and 57% (Genoa).
On the defensive side: Juventus have failed to score in 29% of games; Genoa in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juventus home games / Genoa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juventus play Genoa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 43% of Juventus's games and 71% of Genoa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Juventus vs Genoa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Juventus's recent games and 57% of Genoa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Juventus and Genoa tend to score early?
Juventus have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Genoa in 43% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Juventus cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Genoa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Juventus beat Genoa 2-0 at Allianz Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juventus 1.21 xG and Genoa 0.96 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Genoa landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juventus attack 0.74 / defence 0.87 against Genoa attack 0.75 / defence 1.30, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juventus 42% | Draw 29% | Genoa 29%, with Juventus to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juventus 40%, Genoa 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juventus's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Genoa's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Juventus arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 0.67. That form edge translated into the three points. Juventus (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Genoa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.