Parma 2-1 Hellas Verona – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Parma at 39% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Parma vs Hellas Verona encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Parma host Hellas Verona at Stadio Ennio Tardini in Serie A (matchday 25). Kick-off is Sunday 15 February 2026 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Parma — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D D L L W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Parma's form when playing at home: 1W 3D 6L across their last 10 home games (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.60 lags behind their overall 1.20 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Across their last 10 games, Hellas Verona have recorded 1W 3D 6L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
When travelling, Hellas Verona have posted 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Parma carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.20 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Parma, 1 for Hellas Verona and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 23 Nov 2025, ended Parma 2–1 Hellas Verona — a Parma win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Parma in-play and half-time data (last 62 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Hellas Verona in-play and half-time data (last 62 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Parma 55% versus Hellas Verona 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Parma 47% | Hellas Verona 52%). Note also that Hellas Verona surrender HT leads in 29% of cases while Parma recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 38% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Parma 1.13 xG and Hellas Verona 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Parma attack 0.702 / defence 1.093 | Hellas Verona attack 0.722 / defence 1.298. League average goals — home 1.239 / away 1.230. Parma's attack rating of 0.702 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.13. Hellas Verona's defence rating of 1.298 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Parma's projected output up. Hellas Verona's attack rating of 0.722 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.97. Data: built from Parma's last 62 games and Hellas Verona's last 62.
Result probabilities: Parma 39% | Draw 30% | Hellas Verona 31%. Fair-value odds: Parma 2.56 | Draw 3.34 | Hellas Verona 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Parma are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Parma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.10 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 65% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Parma's last 10 home games and Hellas Verona's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Parma 30% (last 10 home games) | Hellas Verona 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Parma vs Hellas Verona | Competition: Serie A, matchday 25 | Venue: Stadio Ennio Tardini • Kick-off: Sunday 15 February 2026 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Parma 39% | Draw 30% | Hellas Verona 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% (Under 65%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Parma 1.13 / Hellas Verona 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Parma attack 0.702 / def 1.093 | Hellas Verona attack 0.722 / def 1.298 | league avg home 1.239 / away 1.230 • Poisson stance: Parma (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Parma xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Hellas Verona xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Parma vs Hellas Verona FAQs
What time does Parma vs Hellas Verona kick off?
Parma vs Hellas Verona kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 15 February 2026 at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What was the final score in Parma vs Hellas Verona?
Parma 2 - 1 Hellas Verona.
Where is Parma vs Hellas Verona being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What competition is Parma vs Hellas Verona part of?
Parma vs Hellas Verona is a Serie A fixture (matchday 25) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Parma vs Hellas Verona?
Our statistical model gives Parma a 39% chance of winning, Hellas Verona a 31% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Parma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Parma vs Hellas Verona?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Parma and Hellas Verona will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Parma vs Hellas Verona have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (65%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Parma's attack at 0.70x the league average against Hellas Verona's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 1.13 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hellas Verona's attack versus Parma's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Parma's last 62 games and Hellas Verona's last 62 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 1-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Parma Win
39%
2.56
30%
3.34
31%
3.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Parma xG
Total xG
2.10
0.97
Hellas Verona xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
3.23
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
32%
3.09
Win to Nil
15%
6.75
10%
10.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 11.9 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.4 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 7.6 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Parma vs Hellas Verona Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Parma vs Hellas Verona?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Parma and Hellas Verona expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Parma and 0.97 for Hellas Verona, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Parma vs Hellas Verona?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Parma's recent record stands at 13W 23D 26L from 62 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with D-D-L-L-W in the last five.
Hellas Verona, meanwhile, have gone 12W 16D 34L across 62 games — 0.84 PPG, with L-D-L-L-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Parma on 1.00 PPG, Hellas Verona on 0.84. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Parma have managed 7W 10D 14L from their last 31 home games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hellas Verona's away record stands at 7W 7D 17L across their last 31 away games, a 0.90 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Parma are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Hellas Verona are on 0.84 scored and 1.73 conceded.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Parma
Blended
Hellas Verona
Blended
Parma (Home) vs Hellas Verona (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Parma
Blended
Hellas Verona
Blended
❓ Parma vs Hellas Verona Form FAQs
What form are Parma and Hellas Verona in coming into this match?
Parma have gone 13W 23D 26L in their last 62 games (1.00 PPG), while Hellas Verona have gone 12W 16D 34L in their last 62 (0.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Parma at home or Hellas Verona away?
Parma's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Parma at home: 1.00 PPG; Hellas Verona away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2024. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was on 15 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Parma have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Parma's record when hosting Hellas Verona specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Parma
1
Draws
1
Hellas Verona
Recent Meetings
❓ Parma vs Hellas Verona H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Hellas Verona?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Parma have won 2, Hellas Verona have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Parma and Hellas Verona last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 February 2026: Parma 2-1 Hellas Verona.
Who has won more matches between Parma and Hellas Verona?
Parma have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 42% of those situations.
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Parma 58%, Hellas Verona 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Parma) and 45% (Hellas Verona).
On the defensive side: Parma have failed to score in 32% of games; Hellas Verona in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Parma home games / Hellas Verona away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Parma vs Hellas Verona Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Parma and Hellas Verona matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Parma's recent matches and 45% of Hellas Verona's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Parma and Hellas Verona matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Parma's recent games and 45% of Hellas Verona's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Parma and Hellas Verona matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Parma's recent matches and 64% of Hellas Verona's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Parma edge out Hellas Verona 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Parma beat Hellas Verona 2-1 at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Regular Season - 25, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Parma 1.13 xG and Hellas Verona 0.97 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Parma beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Parma attack 0.70 / defence 1.09 against Hellas Verona attack 0.72 / defence 1.30, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Parma 39% | Draw 30% | Hellas Verona 31%, with Parma to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Parma 47%, Hellas Verona 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Parma's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Hellas Verona's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Parma 1.00 PPG, Hellas Verona 0.84 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Parma win broke the near-deadlock. Parma (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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