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Poisson rates Parma at 35% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bologna vs Parma encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Parma travel to Stadio Renato Dall'Ara to take on Bologna. The game is scheduled for Sunday 8 February 2026, 11:30 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Bologna stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Bologna's home record at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Bologna are significantly better at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara than their overall form suggests.

Across all Serie A games this season, Parma have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Parma, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Parma have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Parma are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Bologna, 1 for Parma and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Nov 2025, ended 3–1 with Bologna winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Bologna trading profile (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).

Parma trading profile (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 56% versus Parma 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 52% | Parma 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.06 xG and Parma 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 0.809 / defence 1.159 | Parma attack 0.796 / defence 1.060. League average goals — home 1.238 / away 1.174. Data: 61 Bologna games / 61 Parma games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Bologna 34% | Draw 30% | Parma 35%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 2.94 | Draw 3.33 | Parma 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Parma are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Parma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.14 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Bologna 40% | Parma 40% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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