Napoli 0-1 Empoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Napoli at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Napoli vs Empoli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 17 as Napoli welcome Empoli to Stadio Diego Armando Maradona. Kick-off is set for Sunday 12 December 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Napoli stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D L W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Napoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Napoli have posted 6W 1D 1L at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona — 2.38 PPG. They are averaging 2.12 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 8 home games (62%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona. Their home PPG of 2.38 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Napoli are significantly better at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie A games this season, Empoli have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L W D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.90. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Empoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Empoli have posted 4W 1D 2L from 7 away outings — 1.86 PPG. Away from home they average 1.71 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Napoli 1.80 PPG, Empoli 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Napoli trading profile (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time.
Empoli trading profile (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Napoli 44% versus Empoli 69%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Napoli 62% | Empoli 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Napoli 1.86 xG and Empoli 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Napoli attack 1.228 / defence 0.886 | Empoli attack 1.011 / defence 1.197. League average goals — home 1.268 / away 1.436. Data: 16 Napoli games / 16 Empoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Napoli 51% | Draw 23% | Empoli 26%. Fair-value odds: Napoli 1.96 | Draw 4.35 | Empoli 3.85. Napoli hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.86 / 1.29) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Napoli as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Napoli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.15 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Napoli 38% | Empoli 57%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Napoli vs Empoli | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadio Diego Armando Maradona • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Dec 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Napoli 51% | Draw 23% | Empoli 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 61% | xG Napoli 1.86 / Empoli 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Napoli attack 1.228 / def 0.886 | Empoli attack 1.011 / def 1.197 | league avg home 1.268 / away 1.436 • Poisson stance: Napoli (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Napoli xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Empoli xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Napoli vs Empoli kick off?
Napoli vs Empoli kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 12 December 2021 at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.
What was the final score in Napoli vs Empoli?
Napoli 0 - 1 Empoli.
Where is Napoli vs Empoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.
What competition is Napoli vs Empoli part of?
Napoli vs Empoli is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Napoli vs Empoli?
Our statistical model gives Napoli a 51% chance of winning, Empoli a 26% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Napoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Napoli vs Empoli?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Napoli and Empoli will score (BTTS).
Will Napoli vs Empoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Napoli and Empoli?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Napoli and Empoli in?
Napoli (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-D-L. Empoli (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Napoli's attacking strength (1.23x league average) is weighed against Empoli's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.86. The same calculation in reverse, Empoli's attack versus Napoli's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Napoli Win
51%
1.97
23%
4.38
26%
3.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Napoli xG
Total xG
3.15
1.29
Empoli xG
1.97
51%
Home win
4.38
23%
Draw
3.80
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
28%
3.62
16%
6.45
Win to Nil
14%
7.11
4%
24.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 10.3 | 6.6 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.9 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Napoli vs Empoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Napoli and Empoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Napoli and 1.29 for Empoli, a combined total of 3.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Napoli vs Empoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Napoli's recent record stands at 11W 3D 2L from 16 games, a 2.25 PPG return, with D-L-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Napoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Empoli, meanwhile, have gone 7W 2D 7L across 16 games — 1.44 PPG, with D-L-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Empoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Napoli by 0.81 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Empoli heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Napoli have managed 5W 1D 1L from 7 games — 2.29 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Empoli's away record stands at 4W 1D 2L across 7 trips, a 1.86 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 1.44 PPG overall record — Empoli travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Napoli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Napoli are averaging 2.12 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game recently; Empoli are on 1.62 scored and 1.81 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Empoli in 69%.
Defensively: Napoli have kept a clean sheet in 56% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Napoli
Blended
Empoli
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Napoli and Empoli in coming into this match?
Napoli have gone 11W 3D 2L in their last 16 games (2.25 PPG), while Empoli have gone 7W 2D 7L in their last 16 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Napoli at home or Empoli away?
Napoli's home record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Napoli at home: 2.29 PPG; Empoli away: 1.86 PPG.
Have Napoli or Empoli been keeping clean sheets recently?
Napoli have kept a clean sheet in 56% of their recent games, Empoli in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Napoli have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Apr 2025, when Napoli won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Napoli's record when hosting Empoli specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Napoli
0
Draws
4
Empoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Napoli and Empoli?
From 8 meetings on record, Napoli have won 4, Empoli have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Napoli and Empoli last play each other?
They last met on 14 April 2025, when Napoli 3-0 Empoli.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Napoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Empoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Napoli 43%, Empoli 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Napoli) and 57% (Empoli). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Napoli keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Napoli home games / Empoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Napoli play Empoli?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Napoli's recent matches and 57% of Empoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Napoli vs Empoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Napoli's matches and 57% of Empoli's.
Do Napoli and Empoli tend to score early?
Napoli have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Empoli in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Empoli defy the odds to beat Napoli 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Empoli beat Napoli 0-1 at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Regular Season - 17, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Napoli 1.86 xG and Empoli 1.29 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Napoli fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Napoli attack 1.23 / defence 0.89 against Empoli attack 1.01 / defence 1.20, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Napoli 51% | Draw 23% | Empoli 26%, with Napoli to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual Empoli win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Napoli 62%, Empoli 75%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Napoli's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and conceded here.
Empoli's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Napoli arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 1.44. Form was overturned, with Empoli winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Napoli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.14 scoring average — below par going forward. Empoli (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.