Spezia 1-1 Empoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Empoli at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Spezia vs Empoli encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Empoli make the trip to Stadio Alberto Picco to face Spezia in Serie A, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Sunday 19 December 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Spezia's overall Serie A record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Spezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Spezia have posted 2W 2D 4L at Stadio Alberto Picco — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Empoli (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: L W D W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Empoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Empoli's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 2L across 8 road games this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.62 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 8 away games (38%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Empoli are 0.90 PPG clear of Spezia in recent Serie A fixtures (1.70 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading
Spezia half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
Empoli half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Spezia 59% and Empoli 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Spezia 65% | Empoli 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spezia 1.05 xG and Empoli 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spezia attack 0.794 / defence 1.116 | Empoli attack 0.959 / defence 1.065. League average goals — home 1.240 / away 1.482. Spezia's attack strength of 0.794 is below the league average — the 1.05 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 17 Spezia games / 17 Empoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Spezia 25% | Draw 25% | Empoli 50%. Fair-value odds: Spezia 4.00 | Draw 4.00 | Empoli 2.00. Empoli hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Empoli at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Empoli if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.64 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Spezia 62% | Empoli 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spezia vs Empoli | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Picco • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Dec 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spezia 25% | Draw 25% | Empoli 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 52% | xG Spezia 1.05 / Empoli 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Spezia attack 0.794 / def 1.116 | Empoli attack 0.959 / def 1.065 | league avg home 1.240 / away 1.482 • Poisson stance: Empoli (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Spezia xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Empoli xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Spezia vs Empoli kick off?
Spezia vs Empoli kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 19 December 2021 at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What was the final score in Spezia vs Empoli?
Spezia 1 - 1 Empoli.
Where is Spezia vs Empoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What competition is Spezia vs Empoli part of?
Spezia vs Empoli is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Spezia vs Empoli?
Our statistical model gives Spezia a 25% chance of winning, Empoli a 50% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Empoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spezia vs Empoli?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Spezia and Empoli will score (BTTS).
Will Spezia vs Empoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Empoli?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Spezia and Empoli in?
Spezia (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Empoli (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Spezia's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Empoli's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.05. Flip it around — Empoli's attack (0.96x) against Spezia's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.59.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.8%), 1-2 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Empoli Win
25%
3.98
25%
3.99
50%
2.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Spezia xG
Total xG
2.64
1.59
Empoli xG
3.98
25%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
2.01
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
20%
4.89
35%
2.85
Win to Nil
5%
19.48
17%
5.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 11.4 | 9.0 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.9 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.3 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Spezia vs Empoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Spezia and Empoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Spezia and 1.59 for Empoli, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Spezia vs Empoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 17 outings, Spezia have picked up 0.71 PPG on a 3W 3D 11L record — L-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Spezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Empoli's form line: 8W 2D 7L from 17 games, 1.53 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-W. The sample for Empoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Empoli are the form team by 0.82 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Spezia.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Spezia have posted 1.00 PPG from 8 outings (2W 2D 4L).
On the road, Empoli have gone 5W 1D 2L from 8 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 1.53 PPG overall record — Empoli travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Empoli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Spezia are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.24 conceded per game recently; Empoli are on 1.59 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Empoli in 65%.
Last 17 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spezia
Blended
Empoli
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Spezia and Empoli in coming into this match?
Spezia have gone 3W 3D 11L in their last 17 games (0.71 PPG), while Empoli have gone 8W 2D 7L in their last 17 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spezia at home or Empoli away?
Empoli's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spezia at home: 1.00 PPG; Empoli away: 2.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie A, Serie B all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 17 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Spezia have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Empoli — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Spezia
5
Draws
0
Empoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Empoli?
From 6 meetings on record, Spezia have won 1, Empoli have won 0, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Spezia and Empoli last play each other?
They last met on 17 March 2026, when Spezia 1-1 Empoli.
Who has won more matches between Spezia and Empoli?
Spezia have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Spezia see a goal before the break in 38% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Empoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Spezia 62%, Empoli 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Spezia) and 50% (Empoli).
On the defensive side: Empoli in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spezia home games / Empoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Spezia play Empoli?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Spezia's games and 50% of Empoli's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Spezia vs Empoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Spezia's recent games and 50% of Empoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Spezia and Empoli tend to score early?
Spezia have had a goal before half-time in 38% of their recent matches, Empoli in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Spezia and Empoli share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Alberto Picco, Regular Season - 18, as Spezia and Empoli drew 1-1 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spezia 1.05 xG and Empoli 1.59 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spezia attack 0.79 / defence 1.12 against Empoli attack 0.96 / defence 1.06, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spezia 25% | Draw 25% | Empoli 50%, with Empoli to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spezia 65%, Empoli 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spezia's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Empoli's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Empoli arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 0.71. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.