AS Roma 2-0 Spezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AS Roma at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this AS Roma vs Spezia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Olimpico plays host to AS Roma versus Spezia in Serie A, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Monday 13 December 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
AS Roma have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for AS Roma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AS Roma at Stadio Olimpico this season: 5W 1D 2L from 8 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 8 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Olimpico. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — AS Roma are significantly better at Stadio Olimpico than their overall form suggests.
Spezia (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Spezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Spezia's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 6L across 8 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 3.12 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward AS Roma. A 0.50 PPG lead over Spezia (1.30 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading Data
AS Roma goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Spezia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 88% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Roma 44% versus Spezia 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Roma 56% | Spezia 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Roma 1.69 xG and Spezia 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Roma attack 0.806 / defence 0.927 | Spezia attack 0.667 / defence 1.653. League average goals — home 1.267 / away 1.421. Spezia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.653 — this is suppressing AS Roma's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 AS Roma games / 16 Spezia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AS Roma 56% | Draw 24% | Spezia 19%. Fair-value odds: AS Roma 1.79 | Draw 4.17 | Spezia 5.26. The model has a clear lean to AS Roma (56%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AS Roma at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.56 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: AS Roma 38% | Spezia 62%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Roma vs Spezia | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Monday 13 Dec 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Roma 56% | Draw 24% | Spezia 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 48% | xG AS Roma 1.69 / Spezia 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: AS Roma attack 0.806 / def 0.927 | Spezia attack 0.667 / def 1.653 | league avg home 1.267 / away 1.421 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
AS Roma xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Spezia xG
48%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AS Roma vs Spezia kick off?
AS Roma vs Spezia kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 13 December 2021 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in AS Roma vs Spezia?
AS Roma 2 - 0 Spezia.
Where is AS Roma vs Spezia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is AS Roma vs Spezia part of?
AS Roma vs Spezia is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win AS Roma vs Spezia?
Our statistical model gives AS Roma a 56% chance of winning, Spezia a 19% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Roma vs Spezia?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both AS Roma and Spezia will score (BTTS).
Will AS Roma vs Spezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Spezia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are AS Roma and Spezia in?
AS Roma (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Spezia (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from AS Roma's attack rating (0.81) and Spezia's defence rating (1.65), the model arrives at 1.69 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Spezia's attack (0.67x) against AS Roma's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 2-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
56%
1.77
24%
4.15
19%
5.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
AS Roma xG
Total xG
2.56
0.88
Spezia xG
1.77
56%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
5.14
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
42%
2.41
19%
5.40
Win to Nil
23%
4.26
4%
27.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.0 | 11.4 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.6 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.2 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Roma vs Spezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are AS Roma and Spezia expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for AS Roma and 0.88 for Spezia, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Roma vs Spezia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
AS Roma's recent record stands at 8W 1D 7L from 16 games, a 1.56 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for AS Roma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Spezia, meanwhile, have gone 3W 3D 10L across 16 games — 0.75 PPG, with W-L-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Spezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours AS Roma by 0.81 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Spezia heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, AS Roma have managed 5W 1D 2L from 8 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.56 PPG overall — AS Roma are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Spezia's away record stands at 1W 1D 6L across 8 trips, a 0.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AS Roma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
AS Roma are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Spezia are on 1.06 scored and 2.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Spezia in 62%.
Defensively: AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Roma
Blended
Spezia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AS Roma and Spezia in coming into this match?
AS Roma have gone 8W 1D 7L in their last 16 games (1.56 PPG), while Spezia have gone 3W 3D 10L in their last 16 (0.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Roma at home or Spezia away?
AS Roma's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Roma at home: 2.00 PPG; Spezia away: 0.50 PPG.
Have AS Roma or Spezia been keeping clean sheets recently?
AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Spezia in 6%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 June 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
AS Roma go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AS Roma have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Spezia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
4
AS Roma
0
Draws
0
Spezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Spezia?
From 4 meetings on record, AS Roma have won 4, Spezia have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did AS Roma and Spezia last play each other?
They last met on 4 June 2023, when AS Roma 2-1 Spezia.
Who has won more matches between AS Roma and Spezia?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time.
Spezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Roma 38%, Spezia 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for AS Roma and 88% for Spezia. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 12% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AS Roma keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Spezia in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Roma home games / Spezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AS Roma play Spezia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of AS Roma's recent matches and 62% of Spezia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AS Roma vs Spezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of AS Roma's matches and 88% of Spezia's.
Do AS Roma and Spezia tend to score early?
AS Roma have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Spezia in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AS Roma cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Spezia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Roma beat Spezia 2-0 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 17, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Roma 1.69 xG and Spezia 0.88 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Spezia landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Roma attack 0.81 / defence 0.93 against Spezia attack 0.67 / defence 1.65, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Roma 56% | Draw 24% | Spezia 19%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Roma 56%, Spezia 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Roma's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Spezia's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, AS Roma arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 0.75. The form guide was vindicated by the result. AS Roma (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line. Spezia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 2 against a 3.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.