Torino 2-1 Bologna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Torino at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Torino vs Bologna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 17 as Torino welcome Bologna to Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino. Kick-off is set for Sunday 12 December 2021 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Torino — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W L D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Torino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Torino's home record at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino: 4W 2D 2L from 8 Serie A appearances (1.75 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.75 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Torino are significantly better at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie A games this season, Bologna have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Bologna have gone 2W 2D 3L from 7 away fixtures this term (1.14 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.14 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Bologna's 1.60 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Torino's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Trading Patterns
Torino in-play and half-time data (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Bologna in-play and half-time data (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Torino 50% versus Bologna 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Torino 44% | Bologna 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Torino 1.91 xG and Bologna 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Torino attack 1.132 / defence 1.036 | Bologna attack 0.727 / defence 1.323. League average goals — home 1.271 / away 1.434. Bologna bring a strong defensive rating of 1.323 — this is suppressing Torino's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 Torino games / 16 Bologna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Torino 56% | Draw 22% | Bologna 21%. Fair-value odds: Torino 1.79 | Draw 4.55 | Bologna 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Torino (56%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Torino at 56% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Bologna (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.99 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Torino 62% | Bologna 57% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Torino vs Bologna | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Dec 2021, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Torino 56% | Draw 22% | Bologna 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 56% | xG Torino 1.91 / Bologna 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Torino attack 1.132 / def 1.036 | Bologna attack 0.727 / def 1.323 | league avg home 1.271 / away 1.434 • Poisson stance: Torino (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
Torino xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Bologna xG
56%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Torino vs Bologna kick off?
Torino vs Bologna kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 12 December 2021 at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino.
What was the final score in Torino vs Bologna?
Torino 2 - 1 Bologna.
Where is Torino vs Bologna being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino.
What competition is Torino vs Bologna part of?
Torino vs Bologna is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Torino vs Bologna?
Our statistical model gives Torino a 56% chance of winning, Bologna a 21% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Torino the favourite.
Will both teams score in Torino vs Bologna?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Torino and Bologna will score (BTTS).
Will Torino vs Bologna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Torino and Bologna?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Torino and Bologna in?
Torino (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-D-D. Bologna (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Torino's attacking strength (1.13x league average) is weighed against Bologna's defensive record (1.32x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.91. The same calculation in reverse, Bologna's attack versus Torino's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Torino Win
56%
1.77
22%
4.46
21%
4.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
Torino xG
Total xG
2.99
1.08
Bologna xG
1.77
56%
Home win
4.46
22%
Draw
4.74
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
15%
6.72
Win to Nil
19%
5.21
3%
31.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 10.4 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Torino vs Bologna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Torino and Bologna expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Torino and 1.08 for Bologna, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Torino vs Bologna?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Torino come into this having played 16 games, going 5W 4D 7L for 1.19 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-D. The sample for Torino is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bologna sit at 1.50 PPG from 16 outings (7W 3D 6L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Bologna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Torino on 1.19 PPG, Bologna on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Torino's home form reads 4W 2D 1L across 7 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.19 PPG overall — Torino are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Bologna have taken 1.14 points per game from 7 outings (2W 2D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Torino come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Torino are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Bologna are on 1.44 scored and 1.69 conceded.
Defensively: Bologna in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Torino
Blended
Bologna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Torino and Bologna in coming into this match?
Torino have gone 5W 4D 7L in their last 16 games (1.19 PPG), while Bologna have gone 7W 3D 6L in their last 16 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Torino at home or Bologna away?
Torino's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Torino at home: 2.00 PPG; Bologna away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Torino or Bologna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Torino have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Bologna in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Torino and Bologna runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 15 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Torino's record when hosting Bologna specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Torino
3
Draws
5
Bologna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Torino and Bologna?
From 10 meetings on record, Torino have won 2, Bologna have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Torino and Bologna last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2026, when Torino 1-2 Bologna.
Who has won more matches between Torino and Bologna?
Bologna have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Torino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 71% of the time.
Bologna see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Torino 57%, Bologna 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Torino and 57% for Bologna. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bologna in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Torino home games / Bologna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Torino play Bologna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Torino's games and 57% of Bologna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Torino vs Bologna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Torino's matches and 57% of Bologna's.
Do Torino and Bologna tend to score early?
Torino have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Bologna in 43% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Torino edge out Bologna 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Torino beat Bologna 2-1 at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino, Regular Season - 17, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Torino 1.91 xG and Bologna 1.08 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Torino attack 1.13 / defence 1.04 against Bologna attack 0.73 / defence 1.32, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Torino 56% | Draw 22% | Bologna 21%, with Torino to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Torino 44%, Bologna 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Torino's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Bologna's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Torino 1.19 PPG, Bologna 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Torino win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.