Empoli 3-1 Udinese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Udinese at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Empoli vs Udinese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 16 as Empoli welcome Udinese to Stadio Carlo Castellani. Kick-off is set for Monday 6 December 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Empoli have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W D L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Empoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Empoli at Stadio Carlo Castellani this season: 2W 1D 5L from 8 home games — 0.88 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 2.38 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.88 lags behind their overall 1.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Carlo Castellani this season.
Udinese — All Games: 1W 6D 3L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Udinese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Udinese have posted 1W 3D 3L from 7 away outings — 0.86 PPG. Away from home they average 1.43 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Empoli 1.40 PPG, Udinese 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
Empoli in-play and half-time data (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Udinese in-play and half-time data (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Empoli 67% and Udinese 53% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Empoli 73% | Udinese 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Empoli 1.55 xG and Udinese 2.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Empoli attack 0.931 / defence 1.533 | Udinese attack 0.929 / defence 1.320. League average goals — home 1.259 / away 1.456. Udinese bring a strong defensive rating of 1.320 — this is suppressing Empoli's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 15 Empoli games / 15 Udinese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Empoli 29% | Draw 21% | Udinese 50%. Fair-value odds: Empoli 3.45 | Draw 4.76 | Udinese 2.00. Udinese hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.62. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.62 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.55 / 2.07) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Udinese as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.62 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 70% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates corroborate: Empoli 75% | Udinese 57% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Empoli vs Udinese | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadio Carlo Castellani • Kick-off: Monday 6 Dec 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Empoli 29% | Draw 21% | Udinese 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 69% | xG Empoli 1.55 / Udinese 2.07 • Poisson strength factors: Empoli attack 0.931 / def 1.533 | Udinese attack 0.929 / def 1.320 | league avg home 1.259 / away 1.456 • Poisson stance: Udinese (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Empoli xG
Expected Goals
2.07
Udinese xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Empoli vs Udinese kick off?
Empoli vs Udinese kicked off at 17:30 on Monday 6 December 2021 at Stadio Carlo Castellani.
What was the final score in Empoli vs Udinese?
Empoli 3 - 1 Udinese.
Where is Empoli vs Udinese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Carlo Castellani.
What competition is Empoli vs Udinese part of?
Empoli vs Udinese is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Empoli vs Udinese?
Our statistical model gives Empoli a 29% chance of winning, Udinese a 50% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Udinese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Empoli vs Udinese?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Empoli and Udinese will score (BTTS).
Will Empoli vs Udinese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Udinese?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Empoli and Udinese in?
Empoli (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-D-L-W-D. Udinese (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Empoli's attack at 0.93x the league average against Udinese's defence at 1.32x — combine the two and it projects 1.55 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Udinese's attack versus Empoli's defence, projects 2.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Udinese Win
29%
3.47
21%
4.73
50%
2.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
2 – 2
6.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Empoli xG
Total xG
3.62
2.07
Udinese xG
3.47
29%
Home win
4.73
21%
Draw
2.00
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.21
Clean Sheet
13%
7.96
21%
4.69
Win to Nil
4%
27.57
11%
9.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 5.6 | 5.8 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 4.1 | 8.6 | 8.9 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 6.6 | 6.9 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Empoli vs Udinese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Empoli and Udinese expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Empoli and 2.07 for Udinese, a combined total of 3.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Empoli vs Udinese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 15 outings, Empoli have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 6W 2D 7L record — W-D-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Empoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Udinese's form line: 3W 7D 5L from 15 games, 1.07 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-D. The sample for Udinese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Empoli on 1.33 PPG, Udinese on 1.07. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Empoli have posted 1.00 PPG from 7 outings (2W 1D 4L).
On the road, Udinese have gone 1W 3D 3L from 7 away games — 0.86 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Empoli are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.87 conceded per game recently; Udinese are on 1.33 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Empoli have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 15 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Empoli
Blended
Udinese
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Empoli and Udinese in coming into this match?
Empoli have gone 6W 2D 7L in their last 15 games (1.33 PPG), while Udinese have gone 3W 7D 5L in their last 15 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Empoli at home or Udinese away?
Empoli's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Empoli at home: 1.00 PPG; Udinese away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Apr 2022, when Udinese won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Empoli's record when hosting Udinese specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Empoli
4
Draws
3
Udinese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Udinese?
From 8 meetings on record, Empoli have won 1, Udinese have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Empoli and Udinese last play each other?
They last met on 16 February 2025, when Udinese 3-0 Empoli.
Who has won more matches between Empoli and Udinese?
Udinese have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Empoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Udinese see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Empoli 71%, Udinese 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 86% for Empoli and 43% for Udinese. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Empoli have failed to score in 29% of games; Udinese in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Empoli home games / Udinese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Empoli play Udinese?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Empoli's games and 57% of Udinese's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Empoli vs Udinese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 86% of Empoli's matches and 43% of Udinese's.
Do Empoli and Udinese tend to score early?
Empoli have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Udinese in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Empoli cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Udinese.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Empoli beat Udinese 3-1 at Stadio Carlo Castellani, Regular Season - 16, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Empoli 1.55 xG and Udinese 2.07 xG, a combined 3.62. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Empoli beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Udinese landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Empoli attack 0.93 / defence 1.53 against Udinese attack 0.93 / defence 1.32, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Empoli 29% | Draw 21% | Udinese 50%, with Udinese to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual Empoli win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Empoli 73%, Udinese 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Empoli's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Udinese's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Empoli 1.33 PPG, Udinese 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Empoli win broke the near-deadlock. Empoli (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.29 average — tighter than their form line. Udinese (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.