Sassuolo 2-1 Lazio – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Sassuolo at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sassuolo vs Lazio fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sassuolo host Lazio at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore in Serie A, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 12 December 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sassuolo stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D W D D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Sassuolo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Sassuolo have gone 2W 3D 3L this season (8 games, 1.12 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Serie A games this season, Lazio have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Lazio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lazio's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 4L across 8 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Sassuolo at 1.30 PPG versus Lazio's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Sassuolo register both teams scoring in 62% of relevant matches, Lazio in 62% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Sassuolo in-play tendencies (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Lazio in-play tendencies (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 62%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sassuolo 81% and Lazio 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sassuolo 81% | Lazio 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sassuolo 1.78 xG and Lazio 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sassuolo attack 0.953 / defence 1.208 | Lazio attack 0.810 / defence 1.470. League average goals — home 1.268 / away 1.436. Lazio bring a strong defensive rating of 1.470 — this is suppressing Sassuolo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 Sassuolo games / 16 Lazio games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sassuolo 46% | Draw 23% | Lazio 30%. Fair-value odds: Sassuolo 2.17 | Draw 4.35 | Lazio 3.33. Sassuolo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.78 / 1.41) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sassuolo are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sassuolo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.18 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sassuolo 62% | Lazio 62% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sassuolo vs Lazio | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Dec 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sassuolo 46% | Draw 23% | Lazio 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 63% | xG Sassuolo 1.78 / Lazio 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Sassuolo attack 0.953 / def 1.208 | Lazio attack 0.810 / def 1.470 | league avg home 1.268 / away 1.436 • Poisson stance: Sassuolo (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Sassuolo xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Lazio xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sassuolo vs Lazio kick off?
Sassuolo vs Lazio kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 12 December 2021 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What was the final score in Sassuolo vs Lazio?
Sassuolo 2 - 1 Lazio.
Where is Sassuolo vs Lazio being played?
The match is being played at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What competition is Sassuolo vs Lazio part of?
Sassuolo vs Lazio is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sassuolo vs Lazio?
Our statistical model gives Sassuolo a 46% chance of winning, Lazio a 30% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Sassuolo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sassuolo vs Lazio?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Sassuolo and Lazio will score (BTTS).
Will Sassuolo vs Lazio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sassuolo and Lazio?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sassuolo and Lazio in?
Sassuolo (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-W-D-D. Lazio (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sassuolo's attack at 0.95x the league average against Lazio's defence at 1.47x — combine the two and it projects 1.78 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lazio's attack versus Sassuolo's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sassuolo Win
46%
2.16
23%
4.29
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Sassuolo xG
Total xG
3.18
1.41
Lazio xG
2.16
46%
Home win
4.29
23%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.69
Clean Sheet
25%
4.08
17%
5.91
Win to Nil
11%
8.81
5%
19.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 5.8 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 10.4 | 7.3 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.2 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.5 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sassuolo vs Lazio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Sassuolo and Lazio expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Sassuolo and 1.41 for Lazio, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Sassuolo vs Lazio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 16 outings, Sassuolo have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 5W 5D 6L record — L-D-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Sassuolo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lazio's form line: 7W 4D 5L from 16 games, 1.56 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-W. The sample for Lazio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sassuolo on 1.25 PPG, Lazio on 1.56. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Sassuolo have posted 1.12 PPG from 8 outings (2W 3D 3L).
On the road, Lazio have gone 2W 2D 4L from 8 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.56 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lazio's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Sassuolo are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Lazio are on 2.00 scored and 1.88 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sassuolo have seen both teams score in 81% of their recent games; Lazio in 62%.
Last 16 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sassuolo
Blended
Lazio
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sassuolo and Lazio in coming into this match?
Sassuolo have gone 5W 5D 6L in their last 16 games (1.25 PPG), while Lazio have gone 7W 4D 5L in their last 16 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sassuolo at home or Lazio away?
Sassuolo's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sassuolo at home: 1.12 PPG; Lazio away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 9 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Sassuolo's record when hosting Lazio specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Sassuolo
1
Draws
5
Lazio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sassuolo and Lazio?
From 8 meetings on record, Sassuolo have won 2, Lazio have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sassuolo and Lazio last play each other?
They last met on 9 March 2026, when Lazio 2-1 Sassuolo.
Who has won more matches between Sassuolo and Lazio?
Lazio have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sassuolo see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Lazio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sassuolo 62%, Lazio 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Sassuolo and 75% for Lazio. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 62% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lazio in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sassuolo home games / Lazio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sassuolo play Lazio?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Sassuolo's games and 62% of Lazio's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sassuolo vs Lazio usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Sassuolo's matches and 75% of Lazio's.
Do Sassuolo and Lazio tend to score early?
Sassuolo have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Lazio in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sassuolo edge out Lazio 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sassuolo beat Lazio 2-1 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 17, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sassuolo 1.78 xG and Lazio 1.41 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sassuolo attack 0.95 / defence 1.21 against Lazio attack 0.81 / defence 1.47, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sassuolo 46% | Draw 23% | Lazio 30%, with Sassuolo to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 78% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sassuolo 81%, Lazio 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 72%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sassuolo's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 81% of their matches — today it did.
Lazio's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sassuolo 1.25 PPG, Lazio 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sassuolo win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.