Lecce 2-1 Udinese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Udinese (44%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Lecce face Udinese.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lecce host Udinese at Stadio Via del Mare in Serie A (matchday 24). Kick-off is Sunday 8 February 2026 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Lecce — last 10 games: 1W 2D 7L, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Lecce at home: 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Lecce are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Udinese stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Udinese have gone 4W 1D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Udinese are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
Udinese have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the 7 H2H matches we hold against 1 for Lecce.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 25 Oct 2025, ended Lecce 2–3 Udinese — a Udinese win.
Udinese have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 4 wins from 7 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading Patterns
Lecce in-play and half-time data (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 51% of games.
Udinese in-play and half-time data (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 37%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lecce 36% versus Udinese 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lecce 36% | Udinese 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lecce 0.97 xG and Udinese 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lecce attack 0.659 / defence 1.058 | Udinese attack 1.056 / defence 1.201. League average goals — home 1.230 / away 1.174. Lecce's attack rating of 0.659 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.97. Udinese's defence rating of 1.201 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Lecce's projected output up. Data: built from Lecce's last 61 games and Udinese's last 61.
Result probabilities: Lecce 28% | Draw 28% | Udinese 44%. Fair-value odds: Lecce 3.62 | Draw 3.54 | Udinese 2.26. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Udinese as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Udinese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.29 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 60% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lecce 30% (last 10 home games) | Udinese 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lecce vs Udinese | Competition: Serie A, matchday 24 | Venue: Stadio Via del Mare • Kick-off: Sunday 8 February 2026 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lecce 28% | Draw 28% | Udinese 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Lecce 0.97 / Udinese 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Lecce attack 0.659 / def 1.058 | Udinese attack 1.056 / def 1.201 | league avg home 1.230 / away 1.174 • Poisson stance: Udinese (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Lecce xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Udinese xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lecce vs Udinese FAQs
What time does Lecce vs Udinese kick off?
Lecce vs Udinese kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 8 February 2026 at Stadio Via del Mare.
What was the final score in Lecce vs Udinese?
Lecce 2 - 1 Udinese.
Where is Lecce vs Udinese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Via del Mare.
What competition is Lecce vs Udinese part of?
Lecce vs Udinese is a Serie A fixture (matchday 24) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Lecce vs Udinese?
Our statistical model gives Lecce a 28% chance of winning, Udinese a 44% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Udinese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lecce vs Udinese?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Lecce and Udinese will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Lecce vs Udinese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Lecce's attacking strength (0.66x league average) is weighed against Udinese's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.97. The same calculation in reverse, Udinese's attack versus Lecce's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Lecce's last 61 games and Udinese's last 61 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 0-1 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Udinese Win
28%
3.62
28%
3.54
44%
2.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Lecce xG
Total xG
2.29
1.31
Udinese xG
3.62
28%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
2.26
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
27%
3.71
38%
2.65
Win to Nil
7%
13.44
17%
5.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 13.3 | 8.7 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 13.0 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 6.3 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lecce vs Udinese Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lecce vs Udinese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Lecce and Udinese expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Lecce and 1.31 for Udinese, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Lecce vs Udinese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lecce come into this having played 61 games, going 12W 16D 33L for 0.85 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L.
On the other side, Udinese sit at 1.25 PPG from 61 outings (21W 13D 27L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-W across their last five.
Udinese carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.40 PPG clear of Lecce — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Lecce's home form reads 6W 10D 14L across their last 30 home games, a 0.93 PPG return.
Away from home, Udinese have taken 1.20 points per game from their last 30 away games (10W 6D 14L).
Goals in Recent Form
Lecce are averaging 0.66 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Udinese are on 1.10 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lecce
Blended
Udinese
Blended
Lecce (Home) vs Udinese (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lecce
Blended
Udinese
Blended
❓ Lecce vs Udinese Form FAQs
What form are Lecce and Udinese in coming into this match?
Lecce have gone 12W 16D 33L in their last 61 games (0.85 PPG), while Udinese have gone 21W 13D 27L in their last 61 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lecce at home or Udinese away?
Udinese's away record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lecce at home: 0.93 PPG; Udinese away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 9 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from November 2022. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 18 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Lecce have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 18 Oct 2026, when Lecce won Udinese 0-3 Lecce.
Lecce's record when hosting Udinese specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Lecce
2
Draws
4
Udinese
Recent Meetings
❓ Lecce vs Udinese H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lecce and Udinese?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Lecce have won 3, Udinese have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lecce and Udinese last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 October 2026: Udinese 0-3 Lecce.
Who has won more matches between Lecce and Udinese?
Udinese have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lecce see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 31% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lecce 37%, Udinese 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Lecce) and 50% (Udinese).
On the defensive side: Lecce have failed to score in 50% of games; Udinese in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lecce home games / Udinese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lecce vs Udinese Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lecce and Udinese matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Lecce's recent matches and 63% of Udinese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Lecce and Udinese matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Lecce's recent games and 50% of Udinese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lecce and Udinese matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 57% of Lecce's recent matches and 83% of Udinese's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Lecce defy the odds to beat Udinese 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lecce beat Udinese 2-1 at Stadio Via del Mare, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lecce 0.97 xG and Udinese 1.31 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Lecce beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lecce attack 0.66 / defence 1.06 against Udinese attack 1.06 / defence 1.20, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lecce 28% | Draw 28% | Udinese 44%, with Udinese to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Lecce win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lecce 36%, Udinese 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lecce's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did.
Udinese's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Udinese arrived the stronger side — 1.25 PPG against 0.85. Form was overturned, with Lecce winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Lecce (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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