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Poisson rates AS Roma at 56% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AS Roma vs Cagliari encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 24 as AS Roma welcome Cagliari to Stadio Olimpico. Kick-off is set for Monday 9 February 2026 at 19:45 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Serie A games this season, AS Roma have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W W W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for AS Roma, so this record blends games from this season and last.

AS Roma's home record at Stadio Olimpico: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Cagliari stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Cagliari, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Cagliari's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (AS Roma) versus 1.70 (Cagliari). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H Record

AS Roma hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 5 wins from 7 previous encounters compared to 1 for Cagliari, with 1 draws in between.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Dec 2025, ended 0–1 with Cagliari winning.

The historical record gives AS Roma a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 7 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

In-Play Profile

AS Roma in-play tendencies (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.

Cagliari in-play tendencies (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Roma 39% versus Cagliari 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Roma 33% | Cagliari 51%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects AS Roma 1.56 xG and Cagliari 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Roma attack 1.091 / defence 0.665 | Cagliari attack 0.950 / defence 1.155. League average goals — home 1.239 / away 1.210. AS Roma's defence rating of 0.665 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 61 AS Roma games / 61 Cagliari games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: AS Roma 56% | Draw 26% | Cagliari 18%. Fair-value odds: AS Roma 1.79 | Draw 3.85 | Cagliari 5.56. The model has a clear lean to AS Roma (56%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, AS Roma are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.33 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates are neutral: AS Roma 30% | Cagliari 70%.

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