🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates AS Roma at 49% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Udinese vs AS Roma encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 23 as Udinese welcome AS Roma to Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli. Kick-off is set for Monday 2 February 2026 at 19:45 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Udinese stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Udinese, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli, Udinese have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.

Across all Serie A games this season, AS Roma have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for AS Roma, so this record blends games from this season and last.

AS Roma's away record: 6W 0D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Udinese) versus 1.60 (AS Roma). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H

Despite the anticipated home advantage, AS Roma have the better historical record — 7 wins from 9 previous contests against 1 for Udinese.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2025, ended 0–2 with AS Roma winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. AS Roma have won 7 of 9 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

In-Play Profile

Udinese in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).

AS Roma in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Udinese 55% versus AS Roma 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Udinese 50% | AS Roma 33%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Udinese 0.80 xG and AS Roma 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Udinese attack 0.871 / defence 1.117 | AS Roma attack 1.013 / defence 0.733. League average goals — home 1.247 / away 1.167. AS Roma's defence strength of 0.733 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 60 Udinese games / 60 AS Roma games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Udinese 22% | Draw 29% | AS Roma 49%. Fair-value odds: Udinese 4.55 | Draw 3.45 | AS Roma 2.04. AS Roma hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.12 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, AS Roma are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AS Roma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.12 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Udinese 50% | AS Roma 30% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights