Lecce 0-1 Juventus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Juventus (54%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Lecce face Juventus.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lecce host Juventus at Stadio Via del Mare in Serie A (matchday 36). Kick-off is Saturday 9 May 2026 at 20:45 UK time.
Form Guide
Lecce — last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L D D W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Lecce's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, Juventus have recorded 5W 4D 1L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Juventus have gone 6W 2D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (60%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. Juventus's 1.90 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Lecce's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
Despite the home advantage, Juventus have the better record in our head-to-head data — 5 wins from 7 H2H matches against 0 for Lecce.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 3 Jan 2026, ended Lecce 1–1 Juventus — a draw.
Juventus have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 5 wins from 7 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
In-Play Profile
Lecce in-play tendencies (last 73 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 47%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 49% of games.
Juventus in-play tendencies (last 73 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 28 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 56%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lecce 38% versus Juventus 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Lecce 38% | Juventus 41%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Lecce surrender their half-time lead 47% of the time, while Juventus have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 56% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lecce 0.75 xG and Juventus 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lecce attack 0.745 / defence 1.153 | Juventus attack 1.162 / defence 0.814. League average goals — home 1.238 / away 1.113. Lecce's attack rating of 0.745 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.75. Data: built from Lecce's last 73 games and Juventus's last 73.
Result probabilities: Lecce 18% | Draw 27% | Juventus 54%. Fair-value odds: Lecce 5.47 | Draw 3.65 | Juventus 1.84. Juventus hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Juventus are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Juventus offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.24 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 61% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lecce 40% (last 10 home games) | Juventus 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lecce vs Juventus | Competition: Serie A, matchday 36 | Venue: Stadio Via del Mare • Kick-off: Saturday 9 May 2026 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lecce 18% | Draw 27% | Juventus 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% (Under 61%) | BTTS Yes 41% (No 59%) | xG Lecce 0.75 / Juventus 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Lecce attack 0.745 / def 1.153 | Juventus attack 1.162 / def 0.814 | league avg home 1.238 / away 1.113 • Poisson stance: Juventus (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.75
Lecce xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Juventus xG
41%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lecce vs Juventus FAQs
What time does Lecce vs Juventus kick off?
Lecce vs Juventus kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Saturday 9 May 2026 at Stadio Via del Mare.
What was the final score in Lecce vs Juventus?
Lecce 0 - 1 Juventus.
Where is Lecce vs Juventus being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Via del Mare.
What competition is Lecce vs Juventus part of?
Lecce vs Juventus is a Serie A fixture (matchday 36) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Lecce vs Juventus?
Our statistical model gives Lecce a 18% chance of winning, Juventus a 54% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Juventus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lecce vs Juventus?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Lecce and Juventus will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (59%).
Will Lecce vs Juventus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (61%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Lecce's attack at 0.74x the league average against Juventus's defence at 0.81x — combine the two and it projects 0.75 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Juventus's attack versus Lecce's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Lecce's last 73 games and Juventus's last 73 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.4%), 0-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juventus Win
18%
5.47
27%
3.65
54%
1.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
0 – 2
11.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.75
Lecce xG
Total xG
2.24
1.49
Juventus xG
5.47
18%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
1.84
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.41
59%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
23%
4.44
47%
2.12
Win to Nil
4%
24.31
26%
3.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 15.9 | 11.8 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.9 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 4.5 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lecce vs Juventus Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lecce vs Juventus?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Lecce and Juventus expected to score?
The model projects 0.75 expected goals for Lecce and 1.49 for Juventus, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Lecce vs Juventus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lecce's recent record stands at 16W 18D 39L from 73 games, a 0.90 PPG return, with L-L-D-D-W in the last five.
Juventus, meanwhile, have gone 36W 27D 10L across 73 games — 1.85 PPG, with W-W-W-D-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Juventus by 0.95 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Lecce heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Lecce have managed 8W 11D 17L from their last 36 home games — 0.97 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Juventus's away record stands at 15W 13D 8L across their last 36 away games, a 1.61 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Juventus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Lecce are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Juventus are on 1.59 scored and 0.89 conceded.
Defensively: Juventus in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 73 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lecce
Current Season
Juventus
Current Season
Lecce (Home) vs Juventus (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lecce
Current Season
Juventus
Current Season
❓ Lecce vs Juventus Form FAQs
What form are Lecce and Juventus in coming into this match?
Lecce have gone 16W 18D 39L in their last 73 games (0.90 PPG), while Juventus have gone 36W 27D 10L in their last 73 (1.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lecce at home or Juventus away?
Juventus's away record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lecce at home: 0.97 PPG; Juventus away: 1.61 PPG.
Have Lecce or Juventus been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lecce have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Juventus in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 9 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2022. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 25 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Juventus have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 21 Jan 2024, when Juventus won Lecce 0-3 Juventus.
Lecce's record when hosting Juventus specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
0
Lecce
2
Draws
7
Juventus
Recent Meetings
❓ Lecce vs Juventus H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lecce and Juventus?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Lecce have won 0, Juventus have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lecce and Juventus last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 October 2026: Lecce 0-2 Juventus.
Who has won more matches between Lecce and Juventus?
Juventus have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lecce are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Juventus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 31% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lecce 39%, Juventus 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Lecce) and 39% (Juventus).
On the defensive side: Juventus in 36%; Lecce have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lecce home games / Juventus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lecce vs Juventus Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lecce and Juventus matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Lecce's recent matches and 50% of Juventus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Lecce and Juventus matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Lecce's recent games and 39% of Juventus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lecce and Juventus matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 61% of Lecce's recent matches and 67% of Juventus's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Juventus edge out Lecce 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Juventus beat Lecce 0-1 at Stadio Via del Mare, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lecce 0.75 xG and Juventus 1.49 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lecce attack 0.74 / defence 1.15 against Juventus attack 1.16 / defence 0.81, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lecce 18% | Draw 27% | Juventus 54%, with Juventus to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lecce 38%, Juventus 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lecce's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 49% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Juventus's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Juventus arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 0.90. Form held, and they took the win. Juventus (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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