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Poisson rates Napoli at 45% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Napoli vs Bologna encounter.

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Full Analysis

Stadio Diego Armando Maradona plays host to Napoli versus Bologna in Serie A, Regular Season - 36. Kick-off: Monday 11 May 2026 at 19:45 UTC.

Form

Napoli (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D L W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

At home at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Napoli have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Bologna's overall Serie A record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.

When travelling in Serie A this season, Bologna have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

A near-identical PPG reading — 2.00 for Napoli, 1.60 for Bologna — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 9 head-to-head meetings have produced 4 wins for Napoli, 2 for Bologna and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2025, ended 0–2 with Bologna winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Data

Napoli goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.

Bologna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Napoli 45% versus Bologna 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Napoli 48% | Bologna 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Napoli 1.50 xG and Bologna 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Napoli attack 1.222 / defence 0.917 | Bologna attack 1.105 / defence 0.987. League average goals — home 1.245 / away 1.117. Data: 73 Napoli games / 73 Bologna games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Napoli 45% | Draw 26% | Bologna 28%. Fair-value odds: Napoli 2.22 | Draw 3.85 | Bologna 3.57. Napoli hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Napoli at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Napoli if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.63 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Napoli 50% | Bologna 70% BTTS from recent games.

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