Napoli 2-3 Bologna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Napoli at 45% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Napoli vs Bologna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Diego Armando Maradona plays host to Napoli versus Bologna in Serie A, Regular Season - 36. Kick-off: Monday 11 May 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Napoli (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D L W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Napoli have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Bologna's overall Serie A record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Bologna have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.00 for Napoli, 1.60 for Bologna — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 9 head-to-head meetings have produced 4 wins for Napoli, 2 for Bologna and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2025, ended 0–2 with Bologna winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Napoli goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Bologna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Napoli 45% versus Bologna 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Napoli 48% | Bologna 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Napoli 1.50 xG and Bologna 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Napoli attack 1.222 / defence 0.917 | Bologna attack 1.105 / defence 0.987. League average goals — home 1.245 / away 1.117. Data: 73 Napoli games / 73 Bologna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Napoli 45% | Draw 26% | Bologna 28%. Fair-value odds: Napoli 2.22 | Draw 3.85 | Bologna 3.57. Napoli hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Napoli at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Napoli if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.63 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Napoli 50% | Bologna 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Napoli vs Bologna | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Stadio Diego Armando Maradona • Kick-off: Monday 11 May 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Napoli 45% | Draw 26% | Bologna 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Napoli 1.50 / Bologna 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Napoli attack 1.222 / def 0.917 | Bologna attack 1.105 / def 0.987 | league avg home 1.245 / away 1.117 • Poisson stance: Napoli (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Napoli xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Bologna xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Napoli vs Bologna kick off?
Napoli vs Bologna kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 11 May 2026 at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.
What was the final score in Napoli vs Bologna?
Napoli 2 - 3 Bologna.
Where is Napoli vs Bologna being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.
What competition is Napoli vs Bologna part of?
Napoli vs Bologna is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Napoli vs Bologna?
Our statistical model gives Napoli a 45% chance of winning, Bologna a 28% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Napoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Napoli vs Bologna?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Napoli and Bologna will score (BTTS).
Will Napoli vs Bologna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Napoli and Bologna?
Record (9 meetings): Napoli 4W | Draws 3 | Bologna 2W.
What form are Napoli and Bologna in?
Napoli (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-L-W-D. Bologna (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Napoli's attacking strength (1.22x league average) is weighed against Bologna's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.50. Flip it around — Bologna's attack (1.10x) against Napoli's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 73/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.2%), 2-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Napoli Win
45%
2.20
26%
3.79
28%
3.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Napoli xG
Total xG
2.63
1.13
Bologna xG
2.20
45%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
3.54
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
22%
4.49
Win to Nil
15%
6.83
6%
15.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 8.1 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.2 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.2 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Napoli vs Bologna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Napoli and Bologna expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Napoli and 1.13 for Bologna, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Napoli vs Bologna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Napoli's recent record stands at 45W 17D 11L from 73 games, a 2.08 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-D in the last five.
Bologna, meanwhile, have gone 30W 21D 22L across 73 games — 1.52 PPG, with W-W-L-L-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Napoli by 0.56 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Bologna heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Napoli have managed 26W 7D 3L from 36 games — 2.36 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bologna's away record stands at 14W 11D 11L across 36 trips, a 1.47 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Napoli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Napoli are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 0.82 conceded per game recently; Bologna are on 1.36 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Defensively: Napoli have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 73 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Napoli
Current Season
Bologna
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Napoli and Bologna in coming into this match?
Napoli have gone 45W 17D 11L in their last 73 games (2.08 PPG), while Bologna have gone 30W 21D 22L in their last 73 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Napoli at home or Bologna away?
Napoli's home record (2.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Napoli at home: 2.36 PPG; Bologna away: 1.47 PPG.
Have Napoli or Bologna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Napoli have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Bologna in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 11 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Bologna go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Napoli won 3-0 on 28 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Napoli have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bologna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Napoli
3
Draws
3
Bologna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Napoli and Bologna?
From 10 meetings on record, Napoli have won 4, Bologna have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Napoli and Bologna last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2026, when Napoli 2-3 Bologna.
Who has won more matches between Napoli and Bologna?
Napoli have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Napoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Napoli 50%, Bologna 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Napoli) and 56% (Bologna). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Napoli keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Napoli home games / Bologna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Napoli play Bologna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Napoli's recent matches and 56% of Bologna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Napoli vs Bologna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Napoli's matches and 56% of Bologna's.
Do Napoli and Bologna tend to score early?
Napoli have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Bologna in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Bologna defy the odds to beat Napoli 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bologna beat Napoli 2-3 at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Napoli 1.50 xG and Bologna 1.13 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Bologna outscored their 1.13 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Napoli attack 1.22 / defence 0.92 against Bologna attack 1.10 / defence 0.99, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Napoli 45% | Draw 26% | Bologna 28%, with Napoli to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Bologna win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Napoli 48%, Bologna 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Napoli's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Bologna's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Napoli arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 1.52. Form was overturned, with Bologna winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Napoli (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bologna (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.39 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.