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Poisson rates Fiorentina at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fiorentina vs Genoa encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 36 sees Genoa travel to Stadio Artemio Franchi to take on Fiorentina. The game is scheduled for Sunday 10 May 2026, 14:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Fiorentina stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W D D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

Fiorentina's home record at Stadio Artemio Franchi: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Artemio Franchi.

Genoa — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

Genoa's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Fiorentina 1.60 PPG, Genoa 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

Head to Head

The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Fiorentina: 5 wins from 7 previous clashes against 0 for Genoa, with 2 draws across those contests.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.4 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Fiorentina and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 3.4 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

In-Play Profile

Fiorentina in-play tendencies (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).

Genoa in-play tendencies (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fiorentina 58% versus Genoa 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fiorentina 58% | Genoa 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Fiorentina 1.04 xG and Genoa 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fiorentina attack 0.878 / defence 0.845 | Genoa attack 0.902 / defence 0.967. League average goals — home 1.229 / away 1.106. Data: 73 Fiorentina games / 73 Genoa games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Fiorentina 39% | Draw 32% | Genoa 29%. Fair-value odds: Fiorentina 2.56 | Draw 3.12 | Genoa 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.89. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.89 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Fiorentina as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fiorentina offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 1.89 combined xG gives a 29% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Fiorentina 50% | Genoa 40% BTTS from recent games.

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