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Poisson rates AS Roma at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Parma vs AS Roma encounter.

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Full Analysis

Stadio Ennio Tardini plays host to Parma versus AS Roma in Serie A, Regular Season - 36. Kick-off: Sunday 10 May 2026 at 17:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Parma have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D D W W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

Parma at Stadio Ennio Tardini this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.

AS Roma (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: L W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

AS Roma away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Parma, 1.70 for AS Roma — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head ledger leans to AS Roma, who have claimed 3 wins from 3 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 0 draws.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2025, ended 1–2 with AS Roma winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. AS Roma have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading Data

Parma goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

AS Roma goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Parma 53% versus AS Roma 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Parma 42% | AS Roma 38%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Parma 0.97 xG and AS Roma 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Parma attack 0.739 / defence 1.105 | AS Roma attack 1.136 / defence 1.068. League average goals — home 1.232 / away 1.093. Parma's attack strength of 0.739 is below the league average — the 0.97 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 73 Parma games / 73 AS Roma games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Parma 26% | Draw 28% | AS Roma 46%. Fair-value odds: Parma 3.85 | Draw 3.57 | AS Roma 2.17. AS Roma hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is AS Roma at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AS Roma if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.35 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Parma 40% | AS Roma 50% BTTS from recent games.

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