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Poisson model rates Cremonese at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cremonese vs Pisa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 36 sees Pisa travel to Stadio Giovanni Zini to take on Cremonese. The game is scheduled for Sunday 10 May 2026, 14:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Cremonese stand at 1W 1D 8L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

In front of their own supporters this season, Cremonese have posted 0W 4D 6L at Stadio Giovanni Zini — 0.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.

Pisa — All Games: 1W 0D 9L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

Pisa's form when playing away from home: 0W 4D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Cremonese 0.40 PPG, Pisa 0.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H Record

The previous 7 encounters between these sides heavily favour Pisa, who boast 4 victories compared to 1 for Cremonese.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Nov 2025, ended 0–1 with Pisa winning.

It is worth noting that Pisa have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

In-Play Data

Cremonese trading profile (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

Pisa trading profile (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cremonese 56% versus Pisa 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cremonese 52% | Pisa 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 1.28 xG and Pisa 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 0.656 / defence 1.316 | Pisa attack 0.683 / defence 1.591. League average goals — home 1.229 / away 1.106. Cremonese's attack strength of 0.656 is below the league average — the 1.28 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Pisa bring a strong defensive rating of 1.591 — this is suppressing Cremonese's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 35 Cremonese games / 35 Pisa games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Cremonese 43% | Draw 29% | Pisa 29%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 2.33 | Draw 3.45 | Pisa 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Cremonese as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cremonese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.27 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cremonese 40% | Pisa 40% BTTS from recent games.

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