🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model favours Juventus (63%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Juventus face Fiorentina.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Fiorentina make the trip to Allianz Stadium to face Juventus in Serie A, Regular Season - 37. The match kicks off on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 11:00 UTC.

Form

Juventus (all games): 6W 4D 0L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

At home at Allianz Stadium, Juventus have gone 5W 4D 1L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Allianz Stadium.

Fiorentina have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: W D D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

Fiorentina away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form ledger tips toward Juventus. A 0.80 PPG lead over Fiorentina (2.20 vs 1.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Juventus lead 4W to 2W over the last 9 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Nov 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Data

Juventus goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (74 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.

Fiorentina goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (74 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juventus 46% versus Fiorentina 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juventus 40% | Fiorentina 57%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Juventus 2.01 xG and Fiorentina 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juventus attack 1.268 / defence 0.805 | Fiorentina attack 0.984 / defence 1.272. League average goals — home 1.248 / away 1.131. Juventus carry an above-average attack strength of 1.268 — their λ of 2.01 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Fiorentina bring a strong defensive rating of 1.272 — this is suppressing Juventus's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 74 Juventus games / 74 Fiorentina games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Juventus 63% | Draw 21% | Fiorentina 16%. Fair-value odds: Juventus 1.59 | Draw 4.76 | Fiorentina 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Juventus (63%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Juventus as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.91 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Juventus 40% | Fiorentina 60%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights