Bologna 2-0 Fiorentina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bologna at 58% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Bologna face Fiorentina.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Fiorentina make the trip to Stadio Renato Dall'Ara to face Bologna in Serie A (matchday 21). The match kicks off on Wednesday 14 February 2024 at 18:00 UK time.
Form
Bologna (all games): 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D L D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Bologna's form when playing at home: 8W 2D 0L across their last 10 home games (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Bologna are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Fiorentina have collected 1.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L D L L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Fiorentina's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.80 PPG for Bologna against 1.70 for Fiorentina. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Fiorentina edge it 3 wins to 2, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 12 Nov 2023, ended Bologna 1–2 Fiorentina — a Fiorentina win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Bologna — key trading statistics (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).
Fiorentina — key trading statistics (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 59% versus Fiorentina 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 51% | Fiorentina 44%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Bologna surrender their half-time lead 31% of the time, while Fiorentina have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 35% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.77 xG and Fiorentina 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 1.277 / defence 0.753 | Fiorentina attack 0.983 / defence 0.968. League average goals — home 1.429 / away 1.122. Bologna carry an above-average attack rating of 1.277 — their 1.77 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Bologna have a tight defence (rating 0.753), which is pulling Fiorentina's projected output down. Data: built from Bologna's last 61 games and Fiorentina's last 61.
Result probabilities: Bologna 58% | Draw 25% | Fiorentina 16%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 1.71 | Draw 3.94 | Fiorentina 6.18. The model has a clear lean to Bologna (58%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bologna are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.60 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 52%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Bologna 30% (last 10 home games) | Fiorentina 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bologna vs Fiorentina | Competition: Serie A, matchday 21 | Venue: Stadio Renato Dall'Ara • Kick-off: Wednesday 14 February 2024 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bologna 58% | Draw 25% | Fiorentina 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Bologna 1.77 / Fiorentina 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Bologna attack 1.277 / def 0.753 | Fiorentina attack 0.983 / def 0.968 | league avg home 1.429 / away 1.122 • Poisson stance: Bologna (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Bologna xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Fiorentina xG
48%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bologna vs Fiorentina FAQs
What time does Bologna vs Fiorentina kick off?
Bologna vs Fiorentina kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Wednesday 14 February 2024 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What was the final score in Bologna vs Fiorentina?
Bologna 2 - 0 Fiorentina.
Where is Bologna vs Fiorentina being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What competition is Bologna vs Fiorentina part of?
Bologna vs Fiorentina is a Serie A fixture (matchday 21) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bologna vs Fiorentina?
Our statistical model gives Bologna a 58% chance of winning, Fiorentina a 16% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs Fiorentina?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Bologna and Fiorentina will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Bologna vs Fiorentina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Bologna's attack at 1.28x the league average against Fiorentina's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.77 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Fiorentina's attack (0.98x) against Bologna's defence (0.75x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from Bologna's last 61 games and Fiorentina's last 61 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 2-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
58%
1.71
25%
3.94
16%
6.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Bologna xG
Total xG
2.60
0.83
Fiorentina xG
1.71
58%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
6.18
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
44%
2.30
17%
5.85
Win to Nil
25%
3.93
3%
36.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.2 | 10.9 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.7 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.8 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bologna vs Fiorentina Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bologna vs Fiorentina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Bologna and Fiorentina expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Bologna and 0.83 for Fiorentina, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Bologna vs Fiorentina?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 61 outings, Bologna have picked up 1.52 PPG on a 24W 21D 16L record — D-L-D-W-W across the most recent five.
Fiorentina's form line: 26W 15D 20L from 61 games, 1.52 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.52 PPG for Bologna against 1.52 for Fiorentina. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Bologna have posted 1.93 PPG from their last 30 home games (16W 10D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.52 PPG overall — Bologna are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Fiorentina have gone 10W 7D 13L from their last 30 away games — 1.23 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bologna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bologna are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Fiorentina are on 1.46 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bologna
Blended
Fiorentina
Blended
Bologna (Home) vs Fiorentina (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bologna
Blended
Fiorentina
Blended
❓ Bologna vs Fiorentina Form FAQs
What form are Bologna and Fiorentina in coming into this match?
Bologna have gone 24W 21D 16L in their last 61 games (1.52 PPG), while Fiorentina have gone 26W 15D 20L in their last 61 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bologna at home or Fiorentina away?
Bologna's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bologna at home: 1.93 PPG; Fiorentina away: 1.23 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to December 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was on 18 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bologna have gone 3W 0D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Fiorentina — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Bologna
1
Draws
5
Fiorentina
Recent Meetings
❓ Bologna vs Fiorentina H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Fiorentina?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Bologna have won 4, Fiorentina have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Bologna and Fiorentina last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 January 2026: Bologna 1-2 Fiorentina.
Who has won more matches between Bologna and Fiorentina?
Fiorentina have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 71% of those situations.
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bologna 43%, Fiorentina 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Bologna) and 37% (Fiorentina).
On the defensive side: Bologna keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Fiorentina in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bologna home games / Fiorentina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bologna vs Fiorentina Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bologna and Fiorentina matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Bologna's recent matches and 47% of Fiorentina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Bologna and Fiorentina matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Bologna's recent games and 37% of Fiorentina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bologna and Fiorentina matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 63% of Bologna's recent matches and 73% of Fiorentina's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bologna cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Fiorentina.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bologna beat Fiorentina 2-0 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 21, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 1.77 xG and Fiorentina 0.83 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Fiorentina landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 1.28 / defence 0.75 against Fiorentina attack 0.98 / defence 0.97, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bologna 58% | Draw 25% | Fiorentina 16%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 51%, Fiorentina 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bologna's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Fiorentina's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bologna 1.52 PPG, Fiorentina 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bologna win broke the near-deadlock. Fiorentina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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