Bologna 2-1 Torino – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bologna at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bologna vs Torino fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Bologna host Torino at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara in Serie A, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 6 November 2022 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Bologna — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L D L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bologna at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Torino stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Torino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Torino away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Bologna at 1.20 PPG versus Torino's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Bologna, 1 for Torino and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 6 Mar 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Bologna in-play and half-time data (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Torino in-play and half-time data (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 52% versus Torino 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 50% | Torino 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.29 xG and Torino 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 0.904 / defence 0.926 | Torino attack 1.071 / defence 1.051. League average goals — home 1.356 / away 1.196. Data: 50 Bologna games / 50 Torino games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bologna 38% | Draw 29% | Torino 33%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 2.63 | Draw 3.45 | Torino 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bologna at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bologna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.47 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Bologna 70% | Torino 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bologna vs Torino | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadio Renato Dall'Ara • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Nov 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bologna 38% | Draw 29% | Torino 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Bologna 1.29 / Torino 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Bologna attack 0.904 / def 0.926 | Torino attack 1.071 / def 1.051 | league avg home 1.356 / away 1.196 • Poisson stance: Bologna (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Bologna xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Torino xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bologna vs Torino kick off?
Bologna vs Torino kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 6 November 2022 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What was the final score in Bologna vs Torino?
Bologna 2 - 1 Torino.
Where is Bologna vs Torino being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What competition is Bologna vs Torino part of?
Bologna vs Torino is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bologna vs Torino?
Our statistical model gives Bologna a 38% chance of winning, Torino a 33% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs Torino?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Bologna and Torino will score (BTTS).
Will Bologna vs Torino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Torino?
Record (2 meetings): Bologna 0W | Draws 1 | Torino 1W.
What form are Bologna and Torino in?
Bologna (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-W-W. Torino (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Bologna's attack rating (0.90) and Torino's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.29 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Torino's attack versus Bologna's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
38%
2.64
29%
3.43
33%
3.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Bologna xG
Total xG
2.47
1.19
Torino xG
2.64
38%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
3.04
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
28%
3.63
Win to Nil
12%
8.63
9%
11.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 10.0 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.9 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.3 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bologna vs Torino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Bologna and Torino expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Bologna and 1.19 for Torino, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Bologna vs Torino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bologna's recent record stands at 15W 14D 21L from 50 games, a 1.18 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Bologna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Torino, meanwhile, have gone 18W 13D 19L across 50 games — 1.34 PPG, with L-D-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Torino is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bologna on 1.18 PPG, Torino on 1.34. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Bologna have managed 10W 7D 8L from 25 games — 1.48 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Torino's away record stands at 8W 6D 11L across 25 trips, a 1.20 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Bologna are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Torino are on 1.16 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Last 50 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bologna
Blended
Torino
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bologna and Torino in coming into this match?
Bologna have gone 15W 14D 21L in their last 50 games (1.18 PPG), while Torino have gone 18W 13D 19L in their last 50 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bologna at home or Torino away?
Bologna's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bologna at home: 1.48 PPG; Torino away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 15 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Bologna's record when hosting Torino specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Bologna
3
Draws
2
Torino
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Torino?
From 10 meetings on record, Bologna have won 5, Torino have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bologna and Torino last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2026, when Torino 1-2 Bologna.
Who has won more matches between Bologna and Torino?
Bologna have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bologna see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Torino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bologna 48%, Torino 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Bologna) and 36% (Torino).
On the defensive side: Bologna keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Bologna have failed to score in 28% of games; Torino in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bologna home games / Torino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bologna play Torino?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Bologna's recent matches and 52% of Torino's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bologna vs Torino usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Bologna's recent games and 36% of Torino's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bologna and Torino tend to score early?
Bologna have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Torino in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bologna edge out Torino 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bologna beat Torino 2-1 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 13, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 1.29 xG and Torino 1.19 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 0.90 / defence 0.93 against Torino attack 1.07 / defence 1.05, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bologna 38% | Draw 29% | Torino 33%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 50%, Torino 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bologna's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Torino's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bologna 1.18 PPG, Torino 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bologna win broke the near-deadlock. Torino (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.