Hellas Verona 3-1 Venezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hellas Verona at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hellas Verona vs Venezia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hellas Verona host Venezia at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi in Serie A, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 27 February 2022 at 14:05 UTC.
Form Guide
Hellas Verona — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hellas Verona, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hellas Verona at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Hellas Verona are significantly better at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie A games this season, Venezia have recorded 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Venezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Venezia's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Hellas Verona carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.40 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Hellas Verona register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Venezia in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Hellas Verona have won 1, Venezia 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 7.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 5 Dec 2021, ended 4–3 with Hellas Verona winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 7.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Hellas Verona in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 28% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Venezia in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hellas Verona 76% and Venezia 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hellas Verona 72% | Venezia 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hellas Verona 1.74 xG and Venezia 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hellas Verona attack 1.226 / defence 1.039 | Venezia attack 0.708 / defence 1.264. League average goals — home 1.124 / away 1.395. Venezia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.264 — this is suppressing Hellas Verona's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Hellas Verona games / 25 Venezia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hellas Verona 51% | Draw 29% | Venezia 19%. Fair-value odds: Hellas Verona 1.96 | Draw 3.45 | Venezia 5.26. Hellas Verona hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hellas Verona are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hellas Verona offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Hellas Verona 70% | Venezia 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hellas Verona vs Venezia | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Feb 2022, 14:05 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hellas Verona 51% | Draw 29% | Venezia 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Hellas Verona 1.74 / Venezia 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Hellas Verona attack 1.226 / def 1.039 | Venezia attack 0.708 / def 1.264 | league avg home 1.124 / away 1.395 • Poisson stance: Hellas Verona (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Hellas Verona xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Venezia xG
56%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hellas Verona vs Venezia kick off?
Hellas Verona vs Venezia kicked off at 14:05 on Sunday 27 February 2022 at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi.
What was the final score in Hellas Verona vs Venezia?
Hellas Verona 3 - 1 Venezia.
Where is Hellas Verona vs Venezia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi.
What competition is Hellas Verona vs Venezia part of?
Hellas Verona vs Venezia is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Hellas Verona vs Venezia?
Our statistical model gives Hellas Verona a 51% chance of winning, Venezia a 19% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Hellas Verona the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hellas Verona vs Venezia?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Hellas Verona and Venezia will score (BTTS).
Will Hellas Verona vs Venezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Venezia?
Record (1 meetings): Hellas Verona 1W | Draws 0 | Venezia 0W.
What form are Hellas Verona and Venezia in?
Hellas Verona (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. Venezia (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Hellas Verona's attack at 1.23x the league average against Venezia's defence at 1.26x — combine the two and it projects 1.74 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Venezia's attack versus Hellas Verona's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hellas Verona Win
51%
1.95
29%
3.42
19%
5.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Hellas Verona xG
Total xG
2.77
1.03
Venezia xG
1.95
51%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
5.16
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
17%
5.71
Win to Nil
18%
5.43
3%
29.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 11.2 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.8 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hellas Verona vs Venezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Hellas Verona and Venezia expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Hellas Verona and 1.03 for Venezia, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Hellas Verona vs Venezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hellas Verona come into this having played 25 games, going 10W 7D 8L for 1.48 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-D. The sample for Hellas Verona is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Venezia sit at 0.88 PPG from 25 outings (5W 7D 13L), a run that reads D-L-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Venezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hellas Verona carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.60 PPG clear of Venezia — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Hellas Verona's home form reads 7W 2D 3L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.92 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.48 PPG overall — Hellas Verona are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Venezia have taken 1.00 points per game from 12 outings (3W 3D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hellas Verona come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hellas Verona are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Venezia are on 0.92 scored and 1.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hellas Verona have seen both teams score in 76% of their recent games; Venezia in 60%.
Last 25 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hellas Verona
Blended
Venezia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hellas Verona and Venezia in coming into this match?
Hellas Verona have gone 10W 7D 8L in their last 25 games (1.48 PPG), while Venezia have gone 5W 7D 13L in their last 25 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hellas Verona at home or Venezia away?
Hellas Verona's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hellas Verona at home: 1.92 PPG; Venezia away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hellas Verona and Venezia runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Hellas Verona's record when hosting Venezia specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Hellas Verona
1
Draws
0
Venezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Venezia?
From 4 meetings on record, Hellas Verona have won 3, Venezia have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hellas Verona and Venezia last play each other?
They last met on 27 January 2025, when Venezia 1-1 Hellas Verona.
Who has won more matches between Hellas Verona and Venezia?
Hellas Verona have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hellas Verona 75%, Venezia 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for Hellas Verona and 50% for Venezia. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Venezia in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hellas Verona home games / Venezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hellas Verona play Venezia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Hellas Verona's games and 50% of Venezia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hellas Verona vs Venezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of Hellas Verona's matches and 50% of Venezia's.
Do Hellas Verona and Venezia tend to score early?
Hellas Verona have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Venezia in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hellas Verona cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Venezia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hellas Verona beat Venezia 3-1 at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi, Regular Season - 27, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hellas Verona 1.74 xG and Venezia 1.03 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Hellas Verona beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hellas Verona attack 1.23 / defence 1.04 against Venezia attack 0.71 / defence 1.26, drawn from 26/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hellas Verona 51% | Draw 29% | Venezia 19%, with Hellas Verona to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hellas Verona 72%, Venezia 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hellas Verona's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did.
Venezia's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Hellas Verona arrived the stronger side — 1.48 PPG against 0.88. That form edge translated into the three points. Hellas Verona (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.08 average — above their attacking norm. Venezia (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.