Torino 1-2 Cagliari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Torino at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Torino vs Cagliari fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Torino host Cagliari at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino in Serie A, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 27 February 2022 at 11:35 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Torino have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W D L L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Torino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Torino's home record at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Serie A appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Torino are significantly better at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino than their overall form suggests.
Cagliari — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D W D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cagliari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Cagliari have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Torino at 1.50 PPG versus Cagliari's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Torino have won 0, Cagliari 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Dec 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Torino in-play and half-time data (25 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games).
Cagliari in-play and half-time data (25 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 88% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Torino 52% versus Cagliari 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Torino 44% | Cagliari 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Torino 1.61 xG and Cagliari 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Torino attack 1.133 / defence 1.007 | Cagliari attack 0.634 / defence 1.262. League average goals — home 1.128 / away 1.386. Cagliari bring a strong defensive rating of 1.262 — this is suppressing Torino's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 25 Torino games / 26 Cagliari games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Torino 52% | Draw 31% | Cagliari 18%. Fair-value odds: Torino 1.92 | Draw 3.23 | Cagliari 5.56. Torino hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Torino as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Torino offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Torino 60% | Cagliari 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Torino vs Cagliari | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Feb 2022, 11:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Torino 52% | Draw 31% | Cagliari 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG Torino 1.61 / Cagliari 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Torino attack 1.133 / def 1.007 | Cagliari attack 0.634 / def 1.262 | league avg home 1.128 / away 1.386 • Poisson stance: Torino (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Torino xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Cagliari xG
50%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Torino vs Cagliari kick off?
Torino vs Cagliari kicked off at 11:35 on Sunday 27 February 2022 at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino.
What was the final score in Torino vs Cagliari?
Torino 1 - 2 Cagliari.
Where is Torino vs Cagliari being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino.
What competition is Torino vs Cagliari part of?
Torino vs Cagliari is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Torino vs Cagliari?
Our statistical model gives Torino a 52% chance of winning, Cagliari a 18% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Torino the favourite.
Will both teams score in Torino vs Cagliari?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Torino and Cagliari will score (BTTS).
Will Torino vs Cagliari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Torino and Cagliari?
Record (1 meetings): Torino 0W | Draws 1 | Cagliari 0W.
What form are Torino and Cagliari in?
Torino (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-L-D. Cagliari (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Torino's attacking strength (1.13x league average) is weighed against Cagliari's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.61. The same calculation in reverse, Cagliari's attack versus Torino's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 2-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Torino Win
52%
1.94
31%
3.24
18%
5.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Torino xG
Total xG
2.50
0.89
Cagliari xG
1.94
52%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
5.68
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
41%
2.42
20%
5.01
Win to Nil
21%
4.70
4%
28.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.3 | 11.7 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.5 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Torino vs Cagliari?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Torino and Cagliari expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Torino and 0.89 for Cagliari, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Torino vs Cagliari?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Torino come into this having played 25 games, going 9W 6D 10L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-D. The sample for Torino is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cagliari sit at 0.84 PPG from 25 outings (4W 9D 12L), a run that reads L-D-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Cagliari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Torino carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.48 PPG clear of Cagliari — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Torino's home form reads 7W 3D 3L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.85 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.32 PPG overall — Torino are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Cagliari have taken 0.77 points per game from 13 outings (2W 4D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Torino come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Torino are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Cagliari are on 0.96 scored and 1.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cagliari in 64%.
Last 25 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Torino
Blended
Cagliari
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Torino and Cagliari in coming into this match?
Torino have gone 9W 6D 10L in their last 25 games (1.32 PPG), while Cagliari have gone 4W 9D 12L in their last 25 (0.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Torino at home or Cagliari away?
Torino's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Torino at home: 1.85 PPG; Cagliari away: 0.77 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Cagliari go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Torino's record when hosting Cagliari specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Torino
2
Draws
4
Cagliari
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Torino and Cagliari?
From 8 meetings on record, Torino have won 2, Cagliari have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Torino and Cagliari last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Cagliari 2-1 Torino.
Who has won more matches between Torino and Cagliari?
Cagliari have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Torino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 69% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Torino 62%, Cagliari 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Torino and 54% for Cagliari. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Torino keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Cagliari in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Torino home games / Cagliari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Torino play Cagliari?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Torino's recent matches and 46% of Cagliari's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Torino vs Cagliari usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Torino's matches and 54% of Cagliari's.
Do Torino and Cagliari tend to score early?
Torino have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Cagliari in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cagliari defy the odds to beat Torino 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cagliari beat Torino 1-2 at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino, Regular Season - 27, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Torino 1.61 xG and Cagliari 0.89 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Cagliari outscored their 0.89 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Torino attack 1.13 / defence 1.01 against Cagliari attack 0.63 / defence 1.26, drawn from 25/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Torino 52% | Draw 31% | Cagliari 18%, with Torino to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Cagliari win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Torino 44%, Cagliari 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Torino's trading profile (25 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Cagliari's trading profile (25 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Torino arrived the stronger side — 1.32 PPG against 0.84. Form was overturned, with Cagliari winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Torino (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.92 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cagliari (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.77 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.