Empoli 2-3 Juventus – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Juventus at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Empoli vs Juventus encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Juventus travel to Stadio Carlo Castellani to take on Empoli. The game is scheduled for Saturday 26 February 2022, 17:05 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Empoli stand at 1W 5D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L D D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Empoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Empoli's home record at Stadio Carlo Castellani: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Juventus — All Games: 5W 5D 0L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D W D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Juventus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Juventus's form when playing away from home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Form points away from home here. Juventus's 2.00 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Empoli's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Empoli, 0 for Juventus and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 28 Aug 2021, ended 1–0 with Empoli winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Empoli in-play tendencies (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 85% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 85% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Juventus in-play tendencies (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Empoli 69% versus Juventus 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Empoli 62% | Juventus 27%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Empoli 1.16 xG and Juventus 2.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Empoli attack 1.027 / defence 1.726 | Juventus attack 0.947 / defence 1.008. League average goals — home 1.120 / away 1.384. Data: 26 Empoli games / 26 Juventus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Empoli 16% | Draw 24% | Juventus 60%. Fair-value odds: Empoli 6.25 | Draw 4.17 | Juventus 1.67. The model has a clear lean to Juventus (60%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.42. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.42 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.16 / 2.26) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Juventus are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.42 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Empoli 90% | Juventus 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Empoli vs Juventus | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stadio Carlo Castellani • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Feb 2022, 17:05 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Empoli 16% | Draw 24% | Juventus 60% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 64% | xG Empoli 1.16 / Juventus 2.26 • Poisson strength factors: Empoli attack 1.027 / def 1.726 | Juventus attack 0.947 / def 1.008 | league avg home 1.120 / away 1.384 • Poisson stance: Juventus (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Empoli xG
Expected Goals
2.26
Juventus xG
64%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Empoli vs Juventus kick off?
Empoli vs Juventus kicked off at 17:05 on Saturday 26 February 2022 at Stadio Carlo Castellani.
What was the final score in Empoli vs Juventus?
Empoli 2 - 3 Juventus.
Where is Empoli vs Juventus being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Carlo Castellani.
What competition is Empoli vs Juventus part of?
Empoli vs Juventus is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Empoli vs Juventus?
Our statistical model gives Empoli a 16% chance of winning, Juventus a 60% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Juventus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Empoli vs Juventus?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Empoli and Juventus will score (BTTS).
Will Empoli vs Juventus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Juventus?
Record (1 meetings): Empoli 1W | Draws 0 | Juventus 0W.
What form are Empoli and Juventus in?
Empoli (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-D-D-L. Juventus (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Empoli's attack at 1.03x the league average against Juventus's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.16 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Juventus's attack versus Empoli's defence, projects 2.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-2 carries the highest individual probability at 9.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Juventus Win
16%
6.14
24%
4.22
60%
1.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
0 – 2
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Empoli xG
Total xG
3.42
2.26
Juventus xG
6.14
16%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
1.67
60%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.75
Clean Sheet
10%
9.60
31%
3.19
Win to Nil
2%
58.98
19%
5.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 7.4 | 8.4 | 6.3 | 3.6 | 1.6 |
| 1 | 3.8 | 8.6 | 9.7 | 7.3 | 4.1 | 1.9 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 5.0 | 5.6 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Empoli vs Juventus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Empoli and Juventus expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Empoli and 2.26 for Juventus, a combined total of 3.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Empoli vs Juventus?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Empoli come into this having played 26 games, going 8W 7D 11L for 1.19 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-D-L. The sample for Empoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Juventus sit at 1.81 PPG from 26 outings (13W 8D 5L), a run that reads W-D-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Juventus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Juventus carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.62 PPG clear of Empoli — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Empoli's home form reads 3W 2D 8L across 13 games on their own ground, a 0.85 PPG return.
Away from home, Juventus have taken 1.77 points per game from 13 outings (6W 5D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Juventus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Empoli are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.92 conceded per game recently; Juventus are on 1.46 scored and 0.88 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Empoli have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Defensively: Juventus in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 26 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Empoli
Blended
Juventus
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Empoli and Juventus in coming into this match?
Empoli have gone 8W 7D 11L in their last 26 games (1.19 PPG), while Juventus have gone 13W 8D 5L in their last 26 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Empoli at home or Juventus away?
Juventus's away record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Empoli at home: 0.85 PPG; Juventus away: 1.77 PPG.
Have Empoli or Juventus been keeping clean sheets recently?
Empoli have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Juventus in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Empoli and Juventus runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Oct 2022, when Juventus won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Empoli's record when hosting Juventus specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Empoli
2
Draws
4
Juventus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Juventus?
From 8 meetings on record, Empoli have won 2, Juventus have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Empoli and Juventus last play each other?
They last met on 2 February 2025, when Juventus 4-1 Empoli.
Who has won more matches between Empoli and Juventus?
Juventus have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Empoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Juventus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Empoli at 85%, Juventus at 62%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 85% for Empoli and 38% for Juventus. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 62% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Juventus in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Empoli home games / Juventus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Empoli play Juventus?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 85% of Empoli's games and 62% of Juventus's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Empoli vs Juventus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 85% of Empoli's matches and 38% of Juventus's.
Do Empoli and Juventus tend to score early?
Empoli have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, Juventus in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Juventus edge out Empoli 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Juventus beat Empoli 2-3 at Stadio Carlo Castellani, Regular Season - 27, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Empoli 1.16 xG and Juventus 2.26 xG, a combined 3.42. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Empoli beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Empoli attack 1.03 / defence 1.73 against Juventus attack 0.95 / defence 1.01, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Empoli 16% | Draw 24% | Juventus 60%, with Juventus to win its most likely call at 60%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Empoli 62%, Juventus 27%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Empoli's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Juventus's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Juventus arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.19. That form edge translated into the three points. Juventus (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.62 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.