Hellas Verona 1-1 Lazio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lazio at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hellas Verona vs Lazio encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Lazio travel to Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi to take on Hellas Verona. The game is scheduled for Saturday 9 December 2023, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hellas Verona stand at 0W 3D 7L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Hellas Verona, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hellas Verona's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 0.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Hellas Verona are significantly better at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie A games this season, Lazio have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Lazio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lazio's away record: 4W 0D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Lazio — 1.40 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Hellas Verona have won 1, Lazio 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Feb 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Hellas Verona trading profile (52 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Lazio trading profile (52 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hellas Verona 54% versus Lazio 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hellas Verona 42% | Lazio 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hellas Verona 1.29 xG and Lazio 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hellas Verona attack 0.911 / defence 1.263 | Lazio attack 0.919 / defence 1.020. League average goals — home 1.383 / away 1.174. Data: 52 Hellas Verona games / 52 Lazio games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hellas Verona 35% | Draw 26% | Lazio 39%. Fair-value odds: Hellas Verona 2.86 | Draw 3.85 | Lazio 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Lazio as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lazio offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: Hellas Verona 60% | Lazio 40%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hellas Verona vs Lazio | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Dec 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hellas Verona 35% | Draw 26% | Lazio 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Hellas Verona 1.29 / Lazio 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Hellas Verona attack 0.911 / def 1.263 | Lazio attack 0.919 / def 1.020 | league avg home 1.383 / away 1.174 • Poisson stance: Lazio (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Hellas Verona xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Lazio xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hellas Verona vs Lazio kick off?
Hellas Verona vs Lazio kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 9 December 2023 at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi.
What was the final score in Hellas Verona vs Lazio?
Hellas Verona 1 - 1 Lazio.
Where is Hellas Verona vs Lazio being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi.
What competition is Hellas Verona vs Lazio part of?
Hellas Verona vs Lazio is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Hellas Verona vs Lazio?
Our statistical model gives Hellas Verona a 35% chance of winning, Lazio a 39% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Lazio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hellas Verona vs Lazio?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Hellas Verona and Lazio will score (BTTS).
Will Hellas Verona vs Lazio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Lazio?
Record (4 meetings): Hellas Verona 1W | Draws 2 | Lazio 1W.
What form are Hellas Verona and Lazio in?
Hellas Verona (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. Lazio (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Hellas Verona's attack rating (0.91) and Lazio's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.29 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lazio's attack versus Hellas Verona's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lazio Win
35%
2.86
26%
3.78
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Hellas Verona xG
Total xG
2.65
1.36
Lazio xG
2.86
35%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
26%
3.90
28%
3.62
Win to Nil
9%
11.16
11%
9.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 9.6 | 6.6 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.4 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.0 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hellas Verona vs Lazio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Hellas Verona and Lazio expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Hellas Verona and 1.36 for Lazio, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Hellas Verona vs Lazio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hellas Verona's recent record stands at 10W 14D 28L from 52 games, a 0.85 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for Hellas Verona is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lazio, meanwhile, have gone 28W 10D 14L across 52 games — 1.81 PPG, with W-L-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Lazio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lazio by 0.96 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Hellas Verona heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Hellas Verona have managed 7W 5D 12L from 24 games — 1.08 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lazio's away record stands at 13W 2D 9L across 24 trips, a 1.71 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lazio come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Hellas Verona are averaging 0.85 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Lazio are on 1.44 scored and 0.87 conceded.
Defensively: Lazio in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hellas Verona
Blended
Lazio
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hellas Verona and Lazio in coming into this match?
Hellas Verona have gone 10W 14D 28L in their last 52 games (0.85 PPG), while Lazio have gone 28W 10D 14L in their last 52 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hellas Verona at home or Lazio away?
Lazio's away record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hellas Verona at home: 1.08 PPG; Lazio away: 1.71 PPG.
Have Hellas Verona or Lazio been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hellas Verona have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Lazio in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 11 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Lazio have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Aug 2025, when Lazio won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hellas Verona's record when hosting Lazio specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Hellas Verona
3
Draws
6
Lazio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Lazio?
From 10 meetings on record, Hellas Verona have won 1, Lazio have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hellas Verona and Lazio last play each other?
They last met on 11 January 2026, when Hellas Verona 0-1 Lazio.
Who has won more matches between Hellas Verona and Lazio?
Lazio have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Lazio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hellas Verona 58%, Lazio 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Hellas Verona) and 42% (Lazio).
On the defensive side: Lazio in 54%; Hellas Verona have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hellas Verona home games / Lazio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hellas Verona play Lazio?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Hellas Verona's recent matches and 29% of Lazio's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hellas Verona vs Lazio usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Hellas Verona's recent games and 42% of Lazio's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hellas Verona and Lazio tend to score early?
Hellas Verona have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Lazio in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hellas Verona and Lazio share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi, Regular Season - 15, as Hellas Verona and Lazio drew 1-1 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hellas Verona 1.29 xG and Lazio 1.36 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hellas Verona attack 0.91 / defence 1.26 against Lazio attack 0.92 / defence 1.02, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hellas Verona 35% | Draw 26% | Lazio 39%, with Lazio to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hellas Verona 42%, Lazio 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hellas Verona's trading profile (52 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Lazio's trading profile (52 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Lazio arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 0.85. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.