Cagliari 2-1 Sassuolo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sassuolo at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cagliari vs Sassuolo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cagliari and Sassuolo meet at Unipol Domus in Serie A, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Monday 11 December 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Cagliari (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W W L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cagliari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Unipol Domus, Cagliari have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Cagliari are significantly better at Unipol Domus than their overall form suggests.
Sassuolo have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D L D W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Sassuolo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sassuolo's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.80 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Cagliari register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Sassuolo in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Cagliari 1W, Sassuolo 0W, 1D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Apr 2022, ended 1–0 with Cagliari winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Cagliari half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Sassuolo half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cagliari 56% versus Sassuolo 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cagliari 46% | Sassuolo 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cagliari 1.74 xG and Sassuolo 2.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cagliari attack 0.941 / defence 1.442 | Sassuolo attack 1.284 / defence 1.337. League average goals — home 1.383 / away 1.150. Sassuolo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.337 — this is suppressing Cagliari's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Sassuolo have an above-average attack strength of 1.284 — the away xG of 2.13 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 14 Cagliari games / 52 Sassuolo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cagliari 31% | Draw 22% | Sassuolo 47%. Fair-value odds: Cagliari 3.23 | Draw 4.55 | Sassuolo 2.13. Sassuolo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 3.87. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.87 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (1.74 / 2.13) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sassuolo at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sassuolo if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.87 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 74% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 73% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cagliari 80% | Sassuolo 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cagliari vs Sassuolo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Unipol Domus • Kick-off: Monday 11 Dec 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cagliari 31% | Draw 22% | Sassuolo 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 73% | xG Cagliari 1.74 / Sassuolo 2.13 • Poisson strength factors: Cagliari attack 0.941 / def 1.442 | Sassuolo attack 1.284 / def 1.337 | league avg home 1.383 / away 1.150 • Poisson stance: Sassuolo (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Cagliari xG
Expected Goals
2.13
Sassuolo xG
73%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cagliari vs Sassuolo kick off?
Cagliari vs Sassuolo kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 11 December 2023 at Unipol Domus.
What was the final score in Cagliari vs Sassuolo?
Cagliari 2 - 1 Sassuolo.
Where is Cagliari vs Sassuolo being played?
The match is being played at Unipol Domus.
What competition is Cagliari vs Sassuolo part of?
Cagliari vs Sassuolo is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cagliari vs Sassuolo?
Our statistical model gives Cagliari a 31% chance of winning, Sassuolo a 47% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Sassuolo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cagliari vs Sassuolo?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both Cagliari and Sassuolo will score (BTTS).
Will Cagliari vs Sassuolo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Sassuolo?
Record (2 meetings): Cagliari 1W | Draws 1 | Sassuolo 0W.
What form are Cagliari and Sassuolo in?
Cagliari (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-W-L-D-L. Sassuolo (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Cagliari's attack at 0.94x the league average against Sassuolo's defence at 1.34x — combine the two and it projects 1.74 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sassuolo's attack (1.28x) against Cagliari's defence (1.44x) — and the away total comes out at 2.13.
These ratings are built from 14/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.2%), 2-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sassuolo Win
31%
3.19
22%
4.52
47%
2.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.7%
Draw
2 – 2
7.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Cagliari xG
Total xG
3.87
2.13
Sassuolo xG
3.19
31%
Home win
4.52
22%
Draw
2.15
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
54%
Over 3.5
1.85
46%
Under 3.5
2.17
35%
Over 4.5
2.86
65%
Under 4.5
1.54
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.36
27%
BTTS No
3.75
Clean Sheet
12%
8.41
18%
5.70
Win to Nil
4%
26.83
8%
12.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 3.6 | 7.7 | 8.2 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 6.7 | 7.2 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cagliari vs Sassuolo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.7%.
How many goals are Cagliari and Sassuolo expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Cagliari and 2.13 for Sassuolo, a combined total of 3.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Cagliari vs Sassuolo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Cagliari's recent record stands at 17W 20D 15L from 52 games, a 1.37 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Cagliari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sassuolo, meanwhile, have gone 16W 12D 24L across 52 games — 1.15 PPG, with D-L-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for Sassuolo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.37 PPG for Cagliari against 1.15 for Sassuolo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Cagliari have managed 13W 9D 3L from 25 games — 1.92 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.37 PPG overall — Cagliari are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Sassuolo's away record stands at 6W 6D 13L across 25 trips, a 0.96 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cagliari come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cagliari are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Sassuolo are on 1.31 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cagliari
Blended
Sassuolo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cagliari and Sassuolo in coming into this match?
Cagliari have gone 17W 20D 15L in their last 52 games (1.37 PPG), while Sassuolo have gone 16W 12D 24L in their last 52 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cagliari at home or Sassuolo away?
Cagliari's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cagliari at home: 1.92 PPG; Sassuolo away: 0.96 PPG.
Have Cagliari or Sassuolo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cagliari have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Sassuolo in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Sassuolo have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cagliari have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Sassuolo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Cagliari
1
Draws
2
Sassuolo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Sassuolo?
From 6 meetings on record, Cagliari have won 3, Sassuolo have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cagliari and Sassuolo last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Sassuolo 2-1 Cagliari.
Who has won more matches between Cagliari and Sassuolo?
Cagliari have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Sassuolo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 72% for Cagliari, 60% for Sassuolo — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Cagliari) and 68% (Sassuolo). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sassuolo in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cagliari home games / Sassuolo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cagliari play Sassuolo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Cagliari's games and 60% of Sassuolo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cagliari vs Sassuolo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Cagliari's matches and 68% of Sassuolo's.
Do Cagliari and Sassuolo tend to score early?
Cagliari have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Sassuolo in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cagliari defy the odds to beat Sassuolo 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cagliari beat Sassuolo 2-1 at Unipol Domus, Regular Season - 15, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cagliari 1.74 xG and Sassuolo 2.13 xG, a combined 3.87. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Sassuolo landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cagliari attack 0.94 / defence 1.44 against Sassuolo attack 1.28 / defence 1.34, drawn from 14/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cagliari 31% | Draw 22% | Sassuolo 47%, with Sassuolo to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Cagliari win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 54% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cagliari 46%, Sassuolo 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cagliari's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Sassuolo's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cagliari 1.37 PPG, Sassuolo 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cagliari win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.