Udinese 3-3 Hellas Verona – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Udinese at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Udinese vs Hellas Verona encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Bluenergy Stadium plays host to Udinese versus Hellas Verona in Serie A, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Sunday 3 December 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Udinese (all games): 1W 6D 3L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D W D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Udinese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Udinese have posted 1W 5D 4L at Bluenergy Stadium — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Hellas Verona have collected 0.30 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 0W 3D 7L. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Hellas Verona, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Hellas Verona have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Udinese. A 0.60 PPG lead over Hellas Verona (0.90 vs 0.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Udinese lead 1W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Jan 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Udinese — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Hellas Verona — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Udinese 53% versus Hellas Verona 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Udinese 45% | Hellas Verona 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Udinese 1.02 xG and Hellas Verona 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Udinese attack 0.811 / defence 1.068 | Hellas Verona attack 0.661 / defence 0.933. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.168. Data: 51 Udinese games / 51 Hellas Verona games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Udinese 39% | Draw 33% | Hellas Verona 28%. Fair-value odds: Udinese 2.56 | Draw 3.03 | Hellas Verona 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.85. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.85 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Udinese are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Udinese if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.85 combined xG gives a 28% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 36%. Form rates corroborate: Udinese 40% | Hellas Verona 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Udinese vs Hellas Verona | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Bluenergy Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Dec 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Udinese 39% | Draw 33% | Hellas Verona 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 36% | xG Udinese 1.02 / Hellas Verona 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Udinese attack 0.811 / def 1.068 | Hellas Verona attack 0.661 / def 0.933 | league avg home 1.351 / away 1.168 • Poisson stance: Udinese (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Udinese xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Hellas Verona xG
36%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Udinese vs Hellas Verona kick off?
Udinese vs Hellas Verona kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 3 December 2023 at Bluenergy Stadium.
What was the final score in Udinese vs Hellas Verona?
Udinese 3 - 3 Hellas Verona.
Where is Udinese vs Hellas Verona being played?
The match is being played at Bluenergy Stadium.
What competition is Udinese vs Hellas Verona part of?
Udinese vs Hellas Verona is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Udinese vs Hellas Verona?
Our statistical model gives Udinese a 39% chance of winning, Hellas Verona a 28% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Udinese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Udinese vs Hellas Verona?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Udinese and Hellas Verona will score (BTTS).
Will Udinese vs Hellas Verona have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Hellas Verona?
Record (4 meetings): Udinese 1W | Draws 2 | Hellas Verona 1W.
What form are Udinese and Hellas Verona in?
Udinese (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-W-D-L. Hellas Verona (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Udinese's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Hellas Verona's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.02. Flip it around — Hellas Verona's attack (0.66x) against Udinese's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Udinese Win
39%
2.58
33%
3.02
28%
3.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.8%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Udinese xG
Total xG
1.85
0.82
Hellas Verona xG
2.58
39%
Home win
3.02
33%
Draw
3.55
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.75
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
36%
2.78
Win to Nil
17%
5.89
10%
9.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.8 | 13.0 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 16.1 | 13.3 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Udinese vs Hellas Verona?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.5%.
How many goals are Udinese and Hellas Verona expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Udinese and 0.82 for Hellas Verona, a combined total of 1.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Udinese vs Hellas Verona?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Udinese come into this having played 51 games, going 12W 21D 18L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-D-L. The sample for Udinese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Hellas Verona sit at 0.84 PPG from 51 outings (10W 13D 28L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Hellas Verona is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Udinese against 0.84 for Hellas Verona. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Udinese's home form reads 6W 13D 6L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.24 PPG return.
Away from home, Hellas Verona have taken 0.60 points per game from 25 outings (3W 6D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Udinese come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Udinese are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Hellas Verona are on 0.80 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Udinese
Blended
Hellas Verona
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Udinese and Hellas Verona in coming into this match?
Udinese have gone 12W 21D 18L in their last 51 games (1.12 PPG), while Hellas Verona have gone 10W 13D 28L in their last 51 (0.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Udinese at home or Hellas Verona away?
Udinese's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Udinese at home: 1.24 PPG; Hellas Verona away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 26 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hellas Verona won 4-0 on 13 Feb 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Udinese have gone 0W 4D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Hellas Verona — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Udinese
5
Draws
3
Hellas Verona
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Hellas Verona?
From 10 meetings on record, Udinese have won 2, Hellas Verona have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Udinese and Hellas Verona last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2026, when Hellas Verona 1-3 Udinese.
Who has won more matches between Udinese and Hellas Verona?
Hellas Verona have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Udinese 60%, Hellas Verona 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Udinese) and 32% (Hellas Verona).
On the defensive side: Hellas Verona in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Udinese home games / Hellas Verona away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Udinese play Hellas Verona?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Udinese's recent matches and 44% of Hellas Verona's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Udinese vs Hellas Verona usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Udinese's recent games and 32% of Hellas Verona's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Udinese and Hellas Verona tend to score early?
Udinese have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Hellas Verona in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Udinese and Hellas Verona share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Bluenergy Stadium, Regular Season - 14, as Udinese and Hellas Verona drew 3-3 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Udinese 1.02 xG and Hellas Verona 0.82 xG, a combined 1.85. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Udinese beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Hellas Verona outscored their 0.82 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Udinese attack 0.81 / defence 1.07 against Hellas Verona attack 0.66 / defence 0.93, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Udinese 39% | Draw 33% | Hellas Verona 28%, with Udinese to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Udinese 45%, Hellas Verona 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Udinese's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Hellas Verona's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Udinese 1.12 PPG, Hellas Verona 0.84 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Udinese (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.36 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hellas Verona (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.60 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.36 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.