Empoli 1-1 Lecce – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Lecce at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Empoli vs Lecce fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Lecce make the trip to Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena to face Empoli in Serie A, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Monday 11 December 2023 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Empoli's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L W L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Empoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Empoli at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Lecce (all games): 1W 5D 4L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lecce, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Lecce have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Empoli against 0.80 for Lecce. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Empoli lead 1W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 Apr 2023, ended 1–0 with Empoli winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Empoli — key trading statistics (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Lecce — key trading statistics (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Empoli 42% versus Lecce 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Empoli 36% | Lecce 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Empoli 1.12 xG and Lecce 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Empoli attack 0.789 / defence 1.250 | Lecce attack 1.003 / defence 1.030. League average goals — home 1.384 / away 1.154. Empoli's attack strength of 0.789 is below the league average — the 1.12 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 52 Empoli games / 52 Lecce games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Empoli 29% | Draw 28% | Lecce 44%. Fair-value odds: Empoli 3.45 | Draw 3.57 | Lecce 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lecce at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lecce if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.57 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Empoli 30% | Lecce 70%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Empoli vs Lecce | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena • Kick-off: Monday 11 Dec 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Empoli 29% | Draw 28% | Lecce 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 53% | xG Empoli 1.12 / Lecce 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Empoli attack 0.789 / def 1.250 | Lecce attack 1.003 / def 1.030 | league avg home 1.384 / away 1.154 • Poisson stance: Lecce (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Empoli xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Lecce xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Empoli vs Lecce kick off?
Empoli vs Lecce kicked off at 17:30 on Monday 11 December 2023 at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena.
What was the final score in Empoli vs Lecce?
Empoli 1 - 1 Lecce.
Where is Empoli vs Lecce being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena.
What competition is Empoli vs Lecce part of?
Empoli vs Lecce is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Empoli vs Lecce?
Our statistical model gives Empoli a 29% chance of winning, Lecce a 44% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Lecce the favourite.
Will both teams score in Empoli vs Lecce?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Empoli and Lecce will score (BTTS).
Will Empoli vs Lecce have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Lecce?
Record (2 meetings): Empoli 1W | Draws 1 | Lecce 0W.
What form are Empoli and Lecce in?
Empoli (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-L-D. Lecce (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Empoli's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Lecce's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.12. Flip it around — Lecce's attack (1.00x) against Empoli's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.45.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.4%), 0-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lecce Win
29%
3.51
28%
3.59
44%
2.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Empoli xG
Total xG
2.57
1.45
Lecce xG
3.51
29%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
2.29
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
24%
4.25
32%
3.08
Win to Nil
7%
14.92
14%
7.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 11.0 | 8.0 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.4 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.0 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Empoli vs Lecce?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Empoli and Lecce expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Empoli and 1.45 for Lecce, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Empoli vs Lecce?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Empoli's recent record stands at 13W 15D 24L from 52 games, a 1.04 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Empoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lecce, meanwhile, have gone 11W 19D 22L across 52 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-L-D-D-D in their last five. The sample for Lecce is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.04 PPG for Empoli against 1.00 for Lecce. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Empoli have managed 9W 4D 12L from 25 games — 1.24 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lecce's away record stands at 5W 8D 12L across 25 trips, a 0.92 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Empoli are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Lecce are on 0.94 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Empoli
Blended
Lecce
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Empoli and Lecce in coming into this match?
Empoli have gone 13W 15D 24L in their last 52 games (1.04 PPG), while Lecce have gone 11W 19D 22L in their last 52 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Empoli at home or Lecce away?
Empoli's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Empoli at home: 1.24 PPG; Lecce away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 January 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Empoli have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Lecce — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Empoli
3
Draws
2
Lecce
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Lecce?
From 6 meetings on record, Empoli have won 1, Lecce have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Empoli and Lecce last play each other?
They last met on 11 January 2025, when Empoli 1-3 Lecce.
Who has won more matches between Empoli and Lecce?
Lecce have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Empoli see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Lecce are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Empoli 36%, Lecce 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Empoli) and 32% (Lecce).
On the defensive side: Empoli have failed to score in 40% of games; Lecce in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Empoli home games / Lecce away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Empoli play Lecce?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Empoli's recent matches and 48% of Lecce's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Empoli vs Lecce usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Empoli's recent games and 32% of Lecce's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Empoli and Lecce tend to score early?
Empoli have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Lecce in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Empoli and Lecce share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Empoli and Lecce finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Empoli 1.12 xG and Lecce 1.45 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Empoli attack 0.79 / defence 1.25 against Lecce attack 1.00 / defence 1.03, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Empoli 29% | Draw 28% | Lecce 44%, with Lecce to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Empoli 36%, Lecce 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Empoli's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Lecce's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Empoli 1.04 PPG, Lecce 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.