AS Roma 1-1 Fiorentina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AS Roma at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this AS Roma vs Fiorentina fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Fiorentina travel to Stadio Olimpico to take on AS Roma. The game is scheduled for Sunday 10 December 2023, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, AS Roma stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Serie A matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for AS Roma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, AS Roma have posted 6W 2D 2L at Stadio Olimpico — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Fiorentina — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Fiorentina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fiorentina's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: AS Roma 2.00 PPG, Fiorentina 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for AS Roma, 2 for Fiorentina and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 May 2023, ended 1–2 with Fiorentina winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
AS Roma trading profile (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Fiorentina trading profile (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Roma 52% versus Fiorentina 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Roma 48% | Fiorentina 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Roma 1.70 xG and Fiorentina 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Roma attack 1.336 / defence 0.888 | Fiorentina attack 1.049 / defence 0.916. League average goals — home 1.390 / away 1.155. AS Roma carry an above-average attack strength of 1.336 — their λ of 1.70 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 52 AS Roma games / 52 Fiorentina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AS Roma 51% | Draw 25% | Fiorentina 23%. Fair-value odds: AS Roma 1.96 | Draw 4.00 | Fiorentina 4.35. AS Roma hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates AS Roma as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AS Roma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.78 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: AS Roma 60% | Fiorentina 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Roma vs Fiorentina | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Dec 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Roma 51% | Draw 25% | Fiorentina 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 54% | xG AS Roma 1.70 / Fiorentina 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: AS Roma attack 1.336 / def 0.888 | Fiorentina attack 1.049 / def 0.916 | league avg home 1.390 / away 1.155 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
AS Roma xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Fiorentina xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AS Roma vs Fiorentina kick off?
AS Roma vs Fiorentina kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 10 December 2023 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in AS Roma vs Fiorentina?
AS Roma 1 - 1 Fiorentina.
Where is AS Roma vs Fiorentina being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is AS Roma vs Fiorentina part of?
AS Roma vs Fiorentina is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win AS Roma vs Fiorentina?
Our statistical model gives AS Roma a 51% chance of winning, Fiorentina a 23% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Roma vs Fiorentina?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both AS Roma and Fiorentina will score (BTTS).
Will AS Roma vs Fiorentina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Fiorentina?
Record (4 meetings): AS Roma 2W | Draws 0 | Fiorentina 2W.
What form are AS Roma and Fiorentina in?
AS Roma (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Fiorentina (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates AS Roma's attack at 1.34x the league average against Fiorentina's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.70 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fiorentina's attack versus AS Roma's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
51%
1.94
25%
3.98
23%
4.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
AS Roma xG
Total xG
2.78
1.08
Fiorentina xG
1.94
51%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
4.27
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
34%
2.93
18%
5.48
Win to Nil
18%
5.70
4%
23.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 6.7 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 11.4 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.7 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Roma vs Fiorentina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are AS Roma and Fiorentina expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for AS Roma and 1.08 for Fiorentina, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Roma vs Fiorentina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
AS Roma's recent record stands at 25W 12D 15L from 52 games, a 1.67 PPG return, with L-W-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for AS Roma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fiorentina, meanwhile, have gone 22W 13D 17L across 52 games — 1.52 PPG, with L-L-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Fiorentina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: AS Roma on 1.67 PPG, Fiorentina on 1.52. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, AS Roma have managed 16W 4D 6L from 26 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fiorentina's away record stands at 9W 6D 11L across 26 trips, a 1.27 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AS Roma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
AS Roma are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Fiorentina are on 1.46 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Roma
Blended
Fiorentina
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AS Roma and Fiorentina in coming into this match?
AS Roma have gone 25W 12D 15L in their last 52 games (1.67 PPG), while Fiorentina have gone 22W 13D 17L in their last 52 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Roma at home or Fiorentina away?
AS Roma's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Roma at home: 2.00 PPG; Fiorentina away: 1.27 PPG.
Have AS Roma or Fiorentina been keeping clean sheets recently?
AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Fiorentina in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between AS Roma and Fiorentina runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 4 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
AS Roma have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Oct 2024, when Fiorentina won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
AS Roma's record when hosting Fiorentina specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
AS Roma
2
Draws
3
Fiorentina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Fiorentina?
From 10 meetings on record, AS Roma have won 5, Fiorentina have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AS Roma and Fiorentina last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2026, when AS Roma 4-0 Fiorentina.
Who has won more matches between AS Roma and Fiorentina?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Roma 38%, Fiorentina 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (AS Roma) and 38% (Fiorentina).
On the defensive side: AS Roma keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Fiorentina in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Roma home games / Fiorentina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AS Roma play Fiorentina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of AS Roma's recent matches and 46% of Fiorentina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AS Roma vs Fiorentina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of AS Roma's recent games and 38% of Fiorentina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AS Roma and Fiorentina tend to score early?
AS Roma have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Fiorentina in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AS Roma and Fiorentina share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 15, as AS Roma and Fiorentina drew 1-1 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Roma 1.70 xG and Fiorentina 1.08 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Roma attack 1.34 / defence 0.89 against Fiorentina attack 1.05 / defence 0.92, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Roma 51% | Draw 25% | Fiorentina 23%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Roma 48%, Fiorentina 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Roma's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Fiorentina's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AS Roma 1.67 PPG, Fiorentina 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.