Salernitana 1-2 Bologna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bologna at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Salernitana vs Bologna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Arechi plays host to Salernitana versus Bologna in Serie A, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Sunday 10 December 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Salernitana (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for Salernitana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Salernitana have posted 3W 4D 3L at Stadio Arechi — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Salernitana are significantly better at Stadio Arechi than their overall form suggests.
Bologna have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 4W 5D 1L. Last five: D W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Bologna have posted 2W 7D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Bologna are 1.10 PPG clear of Salernitana in recent Serie A fixtures (1.70 vs 0.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Salernitana have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Bologna in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Salernitana lead 0W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.2 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Mar 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Salernitana half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Bologna half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Salernitana 54% versus Bologna 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Salernitana 56% | Bologna 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Salernitana 1.10 xG and Bologna 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Salernitana attack 0.887 / defence 1.320 | Bologna attack 0.944 / defence 0.893. League average goals — home 1.391 / away 1.150. Data: 52 Salernitana games / 52 Bologna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Salernitana 28% | Draw 28% | Bologna 44%. Fair-value odds: Salernitana 3.57 | Draw 3.57 | Bologna 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bologna as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bologna if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.54 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Salernitana 60% | Bologna 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Salernitana vs Bologna | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadio Arechi • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Dec 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Salernitana 28% | Draw 28% | Bologna 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Salernitana 1.10 / Bologna 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Salernitana attack 0.887 / def 1.320 | Bologna attack 0.944 / def 0.893 | league avg home 1.391 / away 1.150 • Poisson stance: Bologna (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Salernitana xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Bologna xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Salernitana vs Bologna kick off?
Salernitana vs Bologna kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 10 December 2023 at Stadio Arechi.
What was the final score in Salernitana vs Bologna?
Salernitana 1 - 2 Bologna.
Where is Salernitana vs Bologna being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Arechi.
What competition is Salernitana vs Bologna part of?
Salernitana vs Bologna is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Salernitana vs Bologna?
Our statistical model gives Salernitana a 28% chance of winning, Bologna a 44% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Salernitana vs Bologna?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Salernitana and Bologna will score (BTTS).
Will Salernitana vs Bologna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Salernitana and Bologna?
Record (4 meetings): Salernitana 0W | Draws 3 | Bologna 1W.
What form are Salernitana and Bologna in?
Salernitana (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Bologna (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Salernitana's attack rating (0.89) and Bologna's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bologna's attack (0.94x) against Salernitana's defence (1.32x) — and the away total comes out at 1.43.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.7%), 0-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
28%
3.52
28%
3.62
44%
2.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Salernitana xG
Total xG
2.54
1.43
Bologna xG
3.52
28%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
2.27
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
24%
4.19
33%
3.01
Win to Nil
7%
14.77
15%
6.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 11.4 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.5 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 6.9 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Salernitana vs Bologna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Salernitana and Bologna expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Salernitana and 1.43 for Bologna, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Salernitana vs Bologna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Salernitana's recent record stands at 10W 20D 22L from 52 games, a 0.96 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Salernitana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bologna, meanwhile, have gone 19W 19D 14L across 52 games — 1.46 PPG, with D-W-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Bologna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bologna by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Salernitana heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Salernitana have managed 8W 9D 9L from 26 games — 1.27 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bologna's away record stands at 7W 9D 10L across 26 trips, a 1.15 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Salernitana are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Bologna are on 1.33 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Salernitana
Blended
Bologna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Salernitana and Bologna in coming into this match?
Salernitana have gone 10W 20D 22L in their last 52 games (0.96 PPG), while Bologna have gone 19W 19D 14L in their last 52 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Salernitana at home or Bologna away?
Salernitana's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Salernitana at home: 1.27 PPG; Bologna away: 1.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Bologna go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bologna won 3-0 on 1 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Salernitana have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Bologna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Salernitana
3
Draws
3
Bologna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Salernitana and Bologna?
From 6 meetings on record, Salernitana have won 0, Bologna have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Salernitana and Bologna last play each other?
They last met on 1 April 2024, when Bologna 3-0 Salernitana.
Who has won more matches between Salernitana and Bologna?
Bologna have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Salernitana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Salernitana 54%, Bologna 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Salernitana and 62% for Bologna. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Salernitana have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Salernitana home games / Bologna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Salernitana play Bologna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Salernitana's games and 73% of Bologna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Salernitana vs Bologna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Salernitana's matches and 62% of Bologna's.
Do Salernitana and Bologna tend to score early?
Salernitana have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Bologna in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bologna edge out Salernitana 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bologna beat Salernitana 1-2 at Stadio Arechi, Regular Season - 15, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Salernitana 1.10 xG and Bologna 1.43 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salernitana attack 0.89 / defence 1.32 against Bologna attack 0.94 / defence 0.89, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Salernitana 28% | Draw 28% | Bologna 44%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salernitana 56%, Bologna 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Salernitana's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Bologna's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bologna arrived the stronger side — 1.46 PPG against 0.96. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.