Juventus 1-1 Bologna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Juventus at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Juventus vs Bologna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Allianz Stadium plays host to Juventus versus Bologna in Serie A, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off: Saturday 16 April 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Juventus have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Juventus have posted 6W 2D 2L at Allianz Stadium — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Allianz Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Bologna (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D L L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Bologna have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.10 in Juventus's favour (2.10 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Juventus, 0 for Bologna and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Dec 2021, ended 2–0 with Juventus winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Juventus half-time and goal-timing data (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 13% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Bologna half-time and goal-timing data (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juventus 48% versus Bologna 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Juventus 29% | Bologna 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juventus 1.17 xG and Bologna 0.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juventus attack 0.908 / defence 0.782 | Bologna attack 0.658 / defence 1.209. League average goals — home 1.062 / away 1.241. Bologna bring a strong defensive rating of 1.209 — this is suppressing Juventus's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Juventus's defence rating of 0.782 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 32 Juventus games / 31 Bologna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juventus 47% | Draw 34% | Bologna 19%. Fair-value odds: Juventus 2.13 | Draw 2.94 | Bologna 5.26. Juventus hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (34%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.80. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.80 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Bologna's lower xG of 0.64 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Juventus are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Juventus if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.80 combined xG gives a 27% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 34%. Form rates corroborate: Juventus 20% | Bologna 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juventus vs Bologna | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Allianz Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Apr 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juventus 47% | Draw 34% | Bologna 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 34% | xG Juventus 1.17 / Bologna 0.64 • Poisson strength factors: Juventus attack 0.908 / def 0.782 | Bologna attack 0.658 / def 1.209 | league avg home 1.062 / away 1.241 • Poisson stance: Juventus (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Juventus xG
Expected Goals
0.64
Bologna xG
34%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juventus vs Bologna kick off?
Juventus vs Bologna kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 16 April 2022 at Allianz Stadium.
What was the final score in Juventus vs Bologna?
Juventus 1 - 1 Bologna.
Where is Juventus vs Bologna being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Stadium.
What competition is Juventus vs Bologna part of?
Juventus vs Bologna is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Juventus vs Bologna?
Our statistical model gives Juventus a 47% chance of winning, Bologna a 19% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Juventus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juventus vs Bologna?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Juventus and Bologna will score (BTTS).
Will Juventus vs Bologna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juventus and Bologna?
Record (1 meetings): Juventus 1W | Draws 0 | Bologna 0W.
What form are Juventus and Bologna in?
Juventus (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Bologna (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Juventus's attack at 0.91x the league average against Bologna's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.17 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bologna's attack (0.66x) against Juventus's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 0.64.
These ratings are built from 32/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (17.6%), 1-1 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juventus Win
47%
2.12
34%
2.95
19%
5.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
19.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.5%
Draw
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Juventus xG
Total xG
1.80
0.64
Bologna xG
2.12
47%
Home win
2.95
34%
Draw
5.29
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.96
66%
BTTS No
1.51
Clean Sheet
53%
1.89
31%
3.21
Win to Nil
25%
4.01
6%
16.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.5 | 10.5 | 3.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 19.2 | 12.3 | 3.9 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 7.1 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juventus vs Bologna?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.1%.
How many goals are Juventus and Bologna expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Juventus and 0.64 for Bologna, a combined total of 1.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Juventus vs Bologna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Juventus come into this having played 31 games, going 18W 7D 6L for 1.97 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-W.
On the other side, Bologna sit at 1.19 PPG from 31 outings (10W 7D 14L), a run that reads D-L-L-D-W across their last five.
Juventus carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.78 PPG clear of Bologna — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Juventus's home form reads 9W 3D 3L across 15 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Bologna have taken 0.87 points per game from 15 outings (3W 4D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Juventus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Juventus are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 0.84 conceded per game recently; Bologna are on 1.10 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Defensively: Juventus have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games; Bologna in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juventus
Current Season
Bologna
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juventus and Bologna in coming into this match?
Juventus have gone 18W 7D 6L in their last 31 games (1.97 PPG), while Bologna have gone 10W 7D 14L in their last 31 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juventus at home or Bologna away?
Juventus's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juventus at home: 2.00 PPG; Bologna away: 0.87 PPG.
Have Juventus or Bologna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Juventus have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Bologna in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Juventus go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Juventus won 3-0 on 2 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Juventus have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bologna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Juventus
6
Draws
0
Bologna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juventus and Bologna?
From 10 meetings on record, Juventus have won 4, Bologna have won 0, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Juventus and Bologna last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Juventus 2-0 Bologna.
Who has won more matches between Juventus and Bologna?
Juventus have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Juventus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Bologna see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juventus 33%, Bologna 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 13% (Juventus) and 60% (Bologna).
On the defensive side: Juventus keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Bologna in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juventus home games / Bologna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juventus play Bologna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Juventus's recent matches and 53% of Bologna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Juventus vs Bologna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 13% of Juventus's recent games and 60% of Bologna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Juventus and Bologna tend to score early?
Juventus have had a goal before half-time in 93% of their recent matches, Bologna in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Juventus and Bologna share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Juventus and Bologna finished level at 1-1 at Allianz Stadium, Regular Season - 33, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juventus 1.17 xG and Bologna 0.64 xG, a combined 1.80. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juventus attack 0.91 / defence 0.78 against Bologna attack 0.66 / defence 1.21, drawn from 32/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juventus 47% | Draw 34% | Bologna 19%, with Juventus to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juventus 29%, Bologna 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juventus's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Bologna's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Juventus arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.